CHINA

[glennkoks]

Then there is this:

[glennkoks]

Mal-investment as far as the eye can see in China.  How much money was invested in the ghost towns and what are they worth now?

[glennkoks]

One more:

[duwayne]

Where are the articles which cover the rapid progress in China such as domination in solar cell manufacture, domination in wind turbine manufacture, launch of commercial jet manufacture, growth in automobile manufacture to number 1 in the world, domination in electric car batteries, etc.? 

China's GDP growth in the last 2 quarters year over year was 5.2% and 5.3%, respectively. This includes the good things that are happening business-wise and the bad things.

A lot of businesses fail in China (45% fail in the US within 5 years).  It may seem counterintuitive, but failures are normal in a growing, capitalistic economy.

Which of the articles you have posted in the past have accurately predicted China's progress?  Did any of those you posted make an accurate prediction of China's overall GDP?

[glennkoks]

Apr 28, 2024 17:04:12 GMT duwayne said:

Where are the articles which cover the rapid progress in China such as domination in solar cell manufacture, domination in wind turbine manufacture, launch of commercial jet manufacture, growth in automobile manufacture to number 1 in the world, domination in electric car batteries, etc.? 

China's GDP growth in the last 2 quarters year over year was 5.2% and 5.3%, respectively. This includes the good things that are happening business-wise and the bad things.

A lot of businesses fail in China (45% fail in the US within 5 years).  It may seem counterintuitive, but failures are normal in a growing, capitalistic economy.

Which of the articles you have posted in the past have accurately predicted China's progress?  Did any of those you posted make an accurate prediction of China's overall GDP?

Duwayne, you don't really believe China's GDP is 5.2% do you?  If you do I have a bridge that I want to sell you.

[ratty]

What's the asking price for the bridge?

[flearider]

Apr 28, 2024 21:07:55 GMT glennkoks said:

Apr 28, 2024 17:04:12 GMT duwayne said:

Where are the articles which cover the rapid progress in China such as domination in solar cell manufacture, domination in wind turbine manufacture, launch of commercial jet manufacture, growth in automobile manufacture to number 1 in the world, domination in electric car batteries, etc.? 

China's GDP growth in the last 2 quarters year over year was 5.2% and 5.3%, respectively. This includes the good things that are happening business-wise and the bad things.

A lot of businesses fail in China (45% fail in the US within 5 years).  It may seem counterintuitive, but failures are normal in a growing, capitalistic economy.

Which of the articles you have posted in the past have accurately predicted China's progress?  Did any of those you posted make an accurate prediction of China's overall GDP?

Duwayne, you don't really believe China's GDP is 5.2% do you?  If you do I have a bridge that I want to sell you.

bridges in china are bigger and better

[duwayne]

Apr 28, 2024 21:07:55 GMT glennkoks said:

Apr 28, 2024 17:04:12 GMT duwayne said:

Where are the articles which cover the rapid progress in China such as domination in solar cell manufacture, domination in wind turbine manufacture, launch of commercial jet manufacture, growth in automobile manufacture to number 1 in the world, domination in electric car batteries, etc.? 

China's GDP growth in the last 2 quarters year over year was 5.2% and 5.3%, respectively. This includes the good things that are happening business-wise and the bad things.

A lot of businesses fail in China (45% fail in the US within 5 years).  It may seem counterintuitive, but failures are normal in a growing, capitalistic economy.

Which of the articles you have posted in the past have accurately predicted China's progress?  Did any of those you posted make an accurate prediction of China's overall GDP?

Duwayne, you don't really believe China's GDP is 5.2% do you?  If you do I have a bridge that I want to sell you.

Glennkoks, is that the bridge you bought from the GDP/light huckster?

I'm using the numbers which the Big 4 US Accounting Firms (which have a very substantial presence in China) and the Big US Banks (which have a very substantial presence in China) report.

I've looked at the credibility of these numbers myself by looking at China's energy consumption and if you believe this has merit, their reported GDP, if anything, looks slightly low.

[glennkoks]

Apr 29, 2024 15:42:18 GMT duwayne said:

Apr 28, 2024 21:07:55 GMT glennkoks said:

Duwayne, you don't really believe China's GDP is 5.2% do you?  If you do I have a bridge that I want to sell you.

Glennkoks, is that the bridge you bought from the GDP/light huckster?

I'm using the numbers which the Big 4 US Accounting Firms (which have a very substantial presence in China) and the Big US Banks (which have a very substantial presence in China) report.

I've looked at the credibility of these numbers myself by looking at China's energy consumption and if you believe this has merit, their reported GDP, if anything, looks slightly low.

Everybody knows the Chinese fudge their GDP numbers.  It's a given.  In addition light data from satellites in space suggests a GDP number much, much lower than their claims.  A new study suggests China has overstated their GDP by about 2% per year and was 12% smaller than their claims.  And that was in 2022 before things got really bad in China.

www.voanews.com/a/satellites-shed-light-on-dictators-lies-about-economic-growth/6813119.html

[glennkoks]

Chinese GDP growth claims are laughable.

[glennkoks]

[nonentropic]

Don't buy that, the numbers are inflated but ultimately the amount of stuff going from Australia to China is only down a bit and probably because construction has tanked.

Not 60% down maybe 10% but trouble is brewing regardless.

Their appetite for a war is not enhanced by this downturn and with Trump coming into play they may find it even harder to make ends meet.

The center of power is still with the West but they the West are dispirit to fail.

[glennkoks]

Apr 30, 2024 3:54:49 GMT nonentropic said:

Don't buy that, the numbers are inflated but ultimately the amount of stuff going from Australia to China is only down a bit and probably because construction has tanked.

Not 60% down maybe 10% but trouble is brewing regardless.

Their appetite for a war is not enhanced by this downturn and with Trump coming into play they may find it even harder to make ends meet.

The center of power is still with the West but they the West are dispirit to fail.

The problem with China is their numbers have been inflated for years and years.  Who knows what their real GDP is?  Economically the Chinese have two really big issues they have to work out before they can get to rolling again.

First they have to work through their housing bubble.  Far too much of their economy hinged on real estate and the Mal-investment is enormous.  It will take years and years to sort that out.

Secondly they have demographic issues and the future generations are much, much smaller.  Future generations are the fuel that feeds the economy in the long term.

[duwayne]

Apr 29, 2024 20:55:54 GMT glennkoks said:

Chinese GDP growth claims are laughable.

Your longstanding claim that China's GDP is overstated by 30% (GDP/Light theory) is laughable.  There's certainly nothing in this video that would support that idea.  The lowest growth value mentioned here as far as I can tell is 1.5%.  Most others "experts" mentioned here say something like 4.5% is likely as compared to the 5.2% number announced by the Chinese government for the 4th quarter.

When the stock market falls on the date of an announcement of GDP growth as mentioned here, it generally means the announcement (which was 5.2%) was lower than expected.  On January 16th, the Bloomberg Report inferred that they had anticipated a higher number and suspected that the government had actually under-reported the 4th quarter growth in order to provide a basis for a better comparison in the 1st quarter number which turned out to be 5.3%.

I'm not going to try to convince you of anything since I know that's not possible, but I don't see signs of the Chinese collapse you assure us is happening.

[glennkoks]

Apr 30, 2024 17:09:25 GMT duwayne said:

Apr 29, 2024 20:55:54 GMT glennkoks said:

Chinese GDP growth claims are laughable.

Your longstanding claim that China's GDP is overstated by 30% (GDP/Light theory) is laughable.  There's certainly nothing in this video that would support that idea.  The lowest growth value mentioned here as far as I can tell is 1.5%.  Most others "experts" mentioned here say something like 4.5% is likely as compared to the 5.2% number announced by the Chinese government for the 4th quarter.

When the stock market falls on the date of an announcement of GDP growth as mentioned here, it generally means the announcement (which was 5.2%) was lower than expected.  On January 16th, the Bloomberg Report inferred that they had anticipated a higher number and suspected that the government had actually under-reported the 4th quarter growth in order to provide a basis for a better comparison in the 1st quarter number which turned out to be 5.3%.

I'm not going to try to convince you of anything since I know that's not possible, but I don't see signs of the Chinese collapse you assure us is happening.

I don't really claim that China's GDP is overstated by 30%. All I claim is that China's official GDP numbers are not accurate. How much are they off? I don't know, they are a communist nation run by a totalitarian regime that cannot be trusted. Some years they are probably closer to accurate other years they are not. The only claim I make is that the housing market there is in the biggest economic bubble the world has ever seen and it is going to take years to sort it out similar to what the Japanese have had to endure over the last 30 years with their "lost decades". In addition their demographic situation is dismal, their trade practices suck and foreign policy has become increasingly arrogant.