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Post by missouriboy on Sept 26, 2021 0:14:28 GMT
This topic will become busy I'm sure. Seems that China has rechosen its path. No more Deng. Back to Mao? Will doubling down on authoritarianism ease the path of scarcity and pain-in-the-butt opinionism? We have discussed a second very wet year that has likely been hard on agriculture. I'm not sure we know how badly they have been hit. But they have been importing like crazy? When you have 1.5 billion people, hunger is a worry. The Mandate of Heaven might be taken away. The "Mandate of Heaven" is an ancient Chinese philosophical concept, which originated during the Zhou Dynasty (1046-256 B.C.E.). The Mandate determines whether an emperor of China is sufficiently virtuous to rule. Gotta worry Xi a bit.
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Post by code on Sept 26, 2021 2:19:22 GMT
china SUCKS
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 26, 2021 3:32:59 GMT
Ross Perot mistook that "great sucking sound" as coming from south of our border. It was really coming from China. And today, 30 years later, it is sucking in much of the World's raw materials, and investing huge amounts to guarantee those resources through its Belt and Road Initiative. If they had not changed their mind in 1433, and pulled back their great Treasure Fleet(s), World colonization may have taken a decidedly different turn. This was 6 years ago ... www.visualcapitalist.com/china-consumes-mind-boggling-amounts-of-raw-materials-chart/ |
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 26, 2021 3:39:47 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 26, 2021 4:08:53 GMT
The Chinese, the Climate Hoax and Manifest DestinyI think it is a fairly safe bet that the CCP does not give "a fig" about the West's suicidal preoccupation with CO2 and climate change. I would just guess that they are perfectly happy to watch us handicap ourselves (kneecap ourselves?), while they go all out for development. All that Australian coal (assuming they get it) will go straight into developing the means whereby Australia becomes "lebensraum" (as the Germans would say) for a greater China. The Chinese are just as capable of believing that the World was made for them, as Western Europeans were/are. China's manifest destiny (15 years is just a blink in time). And while Blinken's blinking ... www.americanthinker.com/articles/2005/06/chinas_manifest_destiny.html
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 29, 2021 10:42:10 GMT
If you have 18 minutes this is probably the best video explaining the Chinese economy, real estate and social system. After watching you will be left shaking your head. To my western mind none of their "systems" make one lick of sense. I would be very interested to hear the solarcycle25.com's brain trusts comments on China...
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Post by nemesis on Sept 29, 2021 13:13:03 GMT
If you have 18 minutes this is probably the best video explaining the Chinese economy, real estate and social system. After watching you will be left shaking your head. To my western mind none of their "systems" make one lick of sense. I would be very interested to hear the solarcycle25.com's brain trusts comments on China... Lots of complex issues but suspect at the root of it; On the plus side: long term strategy because they dont have to think about the next election. On the minus side: central planning - never works long term. |
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 29, 2021 17:03:17 GMT
For those following China, this could be interesting. Seems it's not only Europe that has been caught with its proverbial pants down. Translate pants to coal. The peasants will not be pleased. From Electroverse. Will try to find other sources. OZ should drive a "hard" bargain with the devil.  And where do WE (US) stand with supply? CHINA COAL INVENTORY NEARS RECORD LOW, NATION SUFFERS WORST OUTAGES IN A DECADE
In past years, when the calendar flipped to September, China set to replenishing their coal inventories ahead of the looming cold winter months. This year, however, coal is so scarce that the nation is struggling –and in many cases is failing– to merely keep the lights on. As of September 21, the total stockpile of thermal coal –used to generate electricity– held by the nation’s six major power-generation groups stood at just 11.31 million tonnes — a shockingly-low reserve. To put it in perspective, 11.31 million tonnes is capable of meeting China’s energy demand for just 15 days. \https://electroverse.net/global-energy-crisis-china-coal-inventory-nears-record-low-nation-suffers-worst-outages-in-a-decade-lng-prices-hit-new-highs-brent-crude-soars/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-last-newsletter-total-posts-from-our-blog_1 |
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 29, 2021 18:27:18 GMT
If you have 18 minutes this is probably the best video explaining the Chinese economy, real estate and social system. After watching you will be left shaking your head. To my western mind none of their "systems" make one lick of sense. I would be very interested to hear the solarcycle25.com's brain trusts comments on China... It seems that the Chinese people are making investment decisions within the confines of a restrictive system that places severe limits on what they can and cannot do. Within our system in the post-war (WWII) period, a similar phenomena occurred ... farm boys leaving the farm for the better employment opportunities of the cities. They came in waves, bought homes and became urbanized. They sent their kids to college to become engineers and professionals who flooded into the rapidly expanding labor markets that accompanied the American industrial expansion of the 1950s-80s. As the boom years faded and opportunities/expectations changed, this rapid expansion of what was referred to as the Middle Class stopped, and is now in decline as wealth is reconcentrated upward and technical job opportunities dissappear(?). American Colleges seem now to be turning out too many so-called intellectuals who produce essentially nothing and are only employable by governments or social equity organizations. This has been an ongoing feature of the Chinese economy, where oversized, authoritarian government has been the rule since the revolution. We seem to be heading that direction. If it weren't for engineers and other technical professions what would we look like? .................. Will a Chinese real estate bubble implosion look anything like a Western economic crash? Would the CCP ever allow that to happen? And can they even stop it? The people will not be happy. They don't seem to rise up very often ... but their long history includes many forced dynesty changes. Quote of the Day: "Nature abhors a Moron" (Senator John Kenedy).  |
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 29, 2021 20:38:43 GMT
I don't have any idea what a Chinese real estate bubble implosion will look like. And in all fairness I thought the implosion would have happened by now. We have pensions, 401K's and IRA's. And our government forces us to cash them out and pay taxes when we reach a certain age. They have condos that seem to keep rising in price like our stock market. The strange thing is these are non performing assets. They do not rent them, they don't pay a dividend. I guess they just hope the price keeps going up and at some point someone else will buy them.
The best I can figure is one of two things will happen:
1.) The most likely is at some point people will want to sell these and cash out. You cannot eat a condo. The market will tank and their will be a panic.
2.) If they are like everything else the Chinese build they will begin to deteriorate and the cost of upkeep on a non performing asset will eat the investors up. Which will probably lead to selling and a panic as well.
They have other problems with their entire system as well. The youth unemployment rate is very high. They stage "lying flat" protests which is essentially refusing to work.
Best I can figure the entire system is jacked up. As Nemesis said central planning never works. A scary scenario pointed out at the end of the video is that when their entire jacked up economic system does finally crash they will most likely point their finger westward.
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CHINA
Sept 30, 2021 1:24:26 GMT
Post by missouriboy on Sept 30, 2021 1:24:26 GMT
I don't have any idea what a Chinese real estate bubble implosion will look like. And in all fairness I thought the implosion would have happened by now. We have pensions, 401K's and IRA's. And our government forces us to cash them out and pay taxes when we reach a certain age. They have condos that seem to keep rising in price like our stock market. The strange thing is these are non performing assets. They do not rent them, they don't pay a dividend. I guess they just hope the price keeps going up and at some point someone else will buy them. The best I can figure is one of two things will happen: 1.) The most likely is at some point people will want to sell these and cash out. You cannot eat a condo. The market will tank and their will be a panic. 2.) If they are like everything else the Chinese build they will begin to deteriorate and the cost of upkeep on a non performing asset will eat the investors up. Which will probably lead to selling and a panic as well. They have other problems with their entire system as well. The youth unemployment rate is very high. They stage "lying flat" protests which is essentially refusing to work. Best I can figure the entire system is jacked up. As Nemesis said central planning never works. A scary scenario pointed out at the end of the video is that when their entire jacked up economic system does finally crash they will most likely point their finger westward. Who knows when and where a China crash starts and how serious it will be. But when, or before, a large fraction of the people start pointing angry fingers at the CCP, they will invade Taiwan to hide behind the issue of patriotism. |
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Post by nonentropic on Sept 30, 2021 1:59:57 GMT
There are a lot of parallels with Japan in about 1990.
The Japanese were on top of the world both Australia, NZ and I suppose many other places worried that the Japanese would buy everything because they were. A ski-field in the south sold for $35m a lot then but reality hit a few short years later and by way of example the ski-field was repurchased for $5m from the Japanese by the earlier seller.
Japan never imploded they stagnated no population growth lots of international financial reserves QE massive buying of securities shares etc.
The people are about as wealthy as before now 30 years later, the Government has large debts but own something like 65% of corporate Japan it goes on. Real estate fell probably 75% but often more the point is they are fine sort off.
China is able with their reserves to weather this but things will never be the same because the exchange rate will rise and squeeze them just as in Japan.
The CCP are the biggest looser and may well founder we can only hope. Re Taiwan, A Lawyer friend said to me once, never ask a question you don't know the answer to when in court or negotiating and the CCP have no idea where that would lead.
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CHINA
Sept 30, 2021 2:59:43 GMT
Post by missouriboy on Sept 30, 2021 2:59:43 GMT
There are a lot of parallels with Japan in about 1990. The Japanese were on top of the world both Australia, NZ and I suppose many other places worried that the Japanese would buy everything because they were. A ski-field in the south sold for $35m a lot then but reality hit a few short years later and by way of example the ski-field was repurchased for $5m from the Japanese by the earlier seller. Japan never imploded they stagnated no population growth lots of international financial reserves QE massive buying of securities shares etc. The people are about as wealthy as before now 30 years later, the Government has large debts but own something like 65% of corporate Japan it goes on. Real estate fell probably 75% but often more the point is they are fine sort off. China is able with their reserves to weather this but things will never be the same because the exchange rate will rise and squeeze them just as in Japan. The CCP are the biggest looser and may well founder we can only hope. Re Taiwan, A Lawyer friend said to me once, never ask a question you don't know the answer to when in court or negotiating and the CCP have no idea where that would lead. Quite right. I thought that the CCP was more practical, but this article seems to show Xi actively courting the Woke vote. Perhaps to their detriment. If so, it may be bad timing. wattsupwiththat.com/2021/09/28/china-suffers-widespread-blackouts-as-climate-targets-bite/Meanwhile back in Europe Europe is switching back to coal to survive bleak winterwattsupwiththat.com/2021/09/26/europe-is-switching-back-to-coal-to-survive-bleak-winter/ |
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 5, 2021 0:39:52 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Oct 5, 2021 14:43:04 GMT
I do not share the General's views. I think the Chinese plan to become the worlds biggest power is via economics and not the military. Any conflict over Taiwan would most likely lead to economic sanctions that would have long term effects on their economy and jeopardize their status as an economic superpower. The real war with China begins when the Yuan threatens the Dollar as the worlds reserve currency.
The Chinese watched the Cold War closely. Shortly after the U.S. economically crushed the USSR the Chinese started to open up and transform their economy. Considering where they were 30 years ago and where they are today the Chinese economic growth is truly impressive. Whether it is a viable economy or just smoke and mirrors remains to be seen.
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And where do WE (US) stand with supply?