CHINA

[phydeaux2363]

A pretty good overview of the PRC/Taiwan relationship can be found here. www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy I tend to agree with Mr. Glenn that the PRC is engaging in political theatre meant to maintain the visibility of their claim that Taiwan is their sovereign territory. War, especially great power war, always has unintended consequences, and I think the PRC realizes that even if they militarily occupied Taiwan, the economic fallout could destroy what even they realize is a fragile economy. That said, regular, large sorties of PAAF warplanes into the TADIZ (not Taiwanese "sovereign airspace" as much of the stupid media reports) could cause some tired pilot or SAM operator to pull a trigger, at which point who knows what happens. There's also the "Biden Factor." Does the PRC leadership believe Mr. Biden would respond to a PRC invasion with nothing more than harsh words and attempted UN resolutions? And are they right? I think Biden complicates the equation.

[ratty]

Oct 5, 2021 15:16:44 GMT phydeaux2363 said:

A pretty good overview of the PRC/Taiwan relationship can be found here. www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy I tend to agree with Mr. Glenn that the PRC is engaging in political theatre meant to maintain the visibility of their claim that Taiwan is their sovereign territory. War, especially great power war, always has unintended consequences, and I think the PRC realizes that even if they militarily occupied Taiwan, the economic fallout could destroy what even they realize is a fragile economy. That said, regular, large sorties of PAAF warplanes into the TADIZ (not Taiwanese "sovereign airspace" as much of the stupid media reports) could cause some tired pilot or SAM operator to pull a trigger, at which point who knows what happens. There's also the "Biden Factor." Does the PRC leadership believe Mr. Biden would respond to a PRC invasion with nothing more than harsh words and attempted UN resolutions? And are they right? I think Biden complicates the equation.

This is an interview with Senator Andrew James Molan, AO, DSC who is an Australian politician and former major general in the Australian Army.   In April 2004, he deployed for a year to Iraq to serve as Chief of Operations for the new Headquarters Multinational Force in Iraq.

[code]

Oct 5, 2021 15:16:44 GMT phydeaux2363 said:

A pretty good overview of the PRC/Taiwan relationship can be found here. www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy I tend to agree with Mr. Glenn that the PRC is engaging in political theatre meant to maintain the visibility of their claim that Taiwan is their sovereign territory. War, especially great power war, always has unintended consequences, and I think the PRC realizes that even if they militarily occupied Taiwan, the economic fallout could destroy what even they realize is a fragile economy. That said, regular, large sorties of PAAF warplanes into the TADIZ (not Taiwanese "sovereign airspace" as much of the stupid media reports) could cause some tired pilot or SAM operator to pull a trigger, at which point who knows what happens. There's also the "Biden Factor." Does the PRC leadership believe Mr. Biden would respond to a PRC invasion with nothing more than harsh words and attempted UN resolutions? And are they right? I think Biden complicates the equation.

Stopped in to my local Costco yesterday only to find they were again hurt by supply chain problems.  I beleive any increase in friction between us and China will not improve those problems.

[glennkoks]

Here is what I think.

China views the creation of supply chain problems as a tool or kind of economic weapon. And it can be in the short term.

What the Chinese do not understand is today in a truly capitalistic economy supply chain issues are not a tool or weapon.

They are a huge opportunity for entrepreneurs…

You can bet your bottom dollar Ford, GM and Toyota are working on a fix for the chip shortage and it does not involve china

[walnut]

www.diytrade.com/china/pd/12873319/high_volume_cremation_system_from_china_heavy_duty_processing_crematory_no_smoke.html

[missouriboy]

Coal For Christmas    JBisaT


www.zerohedge.com/energy/coal-christmas

[missouriboy]

Last year it was the Yangtze River.  This year it is the Yellow River.  Back to back flood years.  Floods all over the Eurasian continent it seems ... from the Med. to the Pacific.  

China floods: Nearly 2 million displaced in Shanxi province


news.yahoo.com/china-floods-nearly-2-million-045511773.html

[glennkoks]

Evergrande just missed it's third round of bond payments. Other companies are warning they wont be able to make the payments on their bonds as well. I am no expert on the Chinese economy but it would stand to reason construction of new properties is about to come to a screeching halt in China. When real estate is 30% of your GDP this is going to create a problem. A big, big problem.

If I were in China and had my entire families multi-generational wealth tied up in real estate I would be putting the "For Sale" sign out immediately to try and salvage something. It also stands to reason that commodity prices are probably going to tank in the next few months as Chinese demand will clearly drop.

There are only two likely scenario's as far as I can tell. 1.) The Chinese are about the have an economic collapse. 2.) The Chinese Government is going to have to come in and rescue these real estate companies, kick the can down the road in hopes they can find away to deflate the biggest economic bubble the world has ever known.

My bet is number 2 as politicians even in China don't like angry mobs. But kicking the can down the road is just that. When the entire house of cards is based on real estate development, building more real estate that will stay vacant makes no sense. The house of cards is going to fall. Nobody seems to know exactly when...

www.foxbusiness.com/markets/evergrande-misses-3rd-round-of-bond-coupon-payments-intensifying-contagion-fears

[glennkoks]

"In China, Home Buyers Who Went All In Say They Want Out" I guess entitlement is not just an issue here in the U.S. Hell, I wish I had a dollar for everytime I went "all in" and wanted out. Unfortunately I never got a red cent...



www.nytimes.com/2021/10/12/business/evergrande-homebuyers-debt-china.html

[missouriboy]

The Mandate of Heaven may be creaking.  Declines in food and energy may make the situation even more challenging for the CCP.

[gridley]

Oct 12, 2021 15:10:00 GMT missouriboy said:

The Mandate of Heaven may be creaking.  Declines in food and energy may make the situation even more challenging for the CCP.

It doesn't matter if they fall, if we fall first. And we are.

[Sigurdur]

archive.is/YgWNL/again

Carlos Garcia Rawlins / Reuters
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www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-10-01/end-chinas-rise
The prevailing consensus, in Washington and overseas, is that China is surging past the United States. “If we don’t get moving,” President Joe Biden has said, “they’re going to eat our lunch.” Countries everywhere are preparing, in the words of an Asian diplomat, for China to be “number one.”

[glennkoks]

Sigurdue, China is not going to surge past us basing the vast majority of their economy building empty cities and praying real estate values keep going up. Our day of reckoning is coming but I think China is going to have to work through some fundamental economic principles before they do...

[nonentropic]

Glen they have big problems.

The other factor is that an asset such as a house generates no value without an occupant.

The old fisherman's saying "boats buy houses, houses don't buy boats".

The US still has the technical edge but were seduced by the idea of growing margins by offshoring to low wage countries.

[blustnmtn]

More on the current flooding:

www.theepochtimes.com/flooding-in-west-china-destroys-agricultural-production_4050113.html?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge