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CHINA
Dec 25, 2023 3:47:44 GMT
via mobile
Post by Sigurdur on Dec 25, 2023 3:47:44 GMT
I humbly disagree. China's history is not of conquest through force. Most of the world supports China/Russia. I won't indicate that I think it is the correct thing to do, however, it is reality today. BRICS countries are the least developed. That is where the growth lies. What may through a wrench in this is AI. Are you sure about this? Maybe you are right but I think that Russia's neighbors somewhat fear Russia. China's neighbors fear China, and I think hate them. Most of the rest of the world is generally ambivalent to both. If Russia and China are viewed in any positive light it is only in contrast with the Zionist controlled US empire of lies which they truly despise. My point. |
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Post by walnut on Dec 27, 2023 14:01:02 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 27, 2023 15:06:17 GMT
No GDP is not a useful gauge of Chinas economy. This graph is of the economic indicators provided by the Chinese Government. I wonder why the amount of official data has declined precipitously since Xi Ping Pong rose to power? Then there is the light data from space which correlates very well worldwide with GDP. Well you guessed it. It does not correlate at all with China's official data. I think Mr. Orwell said it best: "In the end, the Party would announce that two and two made five, and you would have to believe it. It was inevitable that they should make that claim sooner or later: the logic of their position demanded it. — George Orwell, "1984"  |
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 31, 2023 2:42:32 GMT
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CHINA
Jan 2, 2024 17:48:40 GMT
Post by glennkoks on Jan 2, 2024 17:48:40 GMT
What a shit show. Where do you think the people who are leaving these industrial cities going? Back to their rural homes to live off the land? Two dates I am watching, January 13th when Taiwan holds their elections and February 10th which is the start of the Chinese New Year. The elections will likely bring some type of a response from China. Probably just saber rattling but who knows. The Chinese New Year will give us a better idea of just how weak or strong the economy really is. |
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Post by glennkoks on Jan 2, 2024 18:07:36 GMT
Something to think about. If you are Xi Ping Pong what can you do about the economy? Build more cities to nowhere? Construction workers remain unpaid, factories are being shuttered, unemployment is rising and youth unemployment is so high they quit posting data on it. Rare demonstrations are becoming more and more common and the pressure on Xi is ratcheting up. Foreign investors are jumping out like rats on a sinking ship.
My guess is the people will be more likely to accept hard times "caused by a war with the west" over Taiwan then they will "the economic depression was caused by me and my failed economic policies, response to Covid and arrogant foreign policy."
Which brings me to my final point. Do you want to deal with Joe Biden's response over an invasion of Taiwan or potentially Donald Trump?
2024 may be scary...
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Post by blustnmtn on Jan 3, 2024 13:50:34 GMT
I continue to believe this will happen before Nov. 2024. I also believe the media all federal government and the administration will use the crisis to maintain their power. |
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Post by glennkoks on Jan 3, 2024 14:30:20 GMT
I continue to believe this will happen before Nov. 2024. I also believe the media all federal government and the administration will use the crisis to maintain their power. I was skeptical that China would invade Taiwan this soon. But the last 30 years of economic prosperity has given the Chinese people a taste of capitalism, freedom and wealth. As the economic situation degrades and turns to despair the pressure on Xi Ping Pong will ratchet up. It is clear to me that the Chinese government has no clue on how fix the economy. Manufacturing is sinking and the housing bubble will take years and years to sort out. Xi Ping Pong does not have years and years. You put any bureaucrat in the world in a tough situation and one thing is certain. He will deflect the blame. In this case the finger of blame will point to the west and Taiwan. He has built up the Chinese military for a reason and he is going to use it. |
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Post by blustnmtn on Jan 3, 2024 15:52:40 GMT
I continue to believe this will happen before Nov. 2024. I also believe the media all federal government and the administration will use the crisis to maintain their power. I was skeptical that China would invade Taiwan this soon. But the last 30 years of economic prosperity has given the Chinese people a taste of capitalism, freedom and wealth. As the economic situation degrades and turns to despair the pressure on Xi Ping Pong will ratchet up. It is clear to me that the Chinese government has no clue on how fix the economy. Manufacturing is sinking and the housing bubble will take years and years to sort out. Xi Ping Pong does not have years and years. You put any bureaucrat in the world in a tough situation and one thing is certain. He will deflect the blame. In this case the finger of blame will point to the west and Taiwan. He has built up the Chinese military for a reason and he is going to use it. I think you're right, they don't know how to fix this. Moreover, the inherent instincts of the dictatorial ruling elites will just make it worse. Interesting that you mention the timeframe of 30 years. I was in Beijing in June of 1988 ~35 and a half years ago. I was amazed at the growth occurring then in Beijing and at the same time the obvious, ever present shadow of an oppressive regime that ruled the common citizens. I was pretty young and full of adventure and optimism at the time. I was sure when I left that communism would fall and these beautiful people would be free. A year later the Tiananmen Square uprising happened and I was again sure China was going to shed the shackles of their dictatorial regime. Sadly, that didn't happen and I realized there was a lot about dictators, history and human nature that I didn't know (and still don't). I think the table is set and that Xi is in a situation that will force him to do something very dramatic. He's going to pick a time when he thinks he has the best chance to do it quickly while the US is preoccupied and feckless. The lack of strength, competency and resolve by the US encourages regimes worldwide to contemplate things they wouldn't otherwise consider. We live in "Interesting Times". |
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CHINA
Jan 3, 2024 15:58:53 GMT
via mobile
Post by Sigurdur on Jan 3, 2024 15:58:53 GMT
Sauds are joining BRICS. US can't figure out why.
Any thoughts on this?
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CHINA
Jan 3, 2024 17:00:48 GMT
Post by glennkoks on Jan 3, 2024 17:00:48 GMT
Sauds are joining BRICS. US can't figure out why. Any thoughts on this? There is nothing to fear from the BRICS until they establish a currency to trade with and challenge the dollar. Considering the current economy in both China and Russia I don't see the BRICS as anything to worry about. Until they decide on a currency and more importantly who gets to print it I would not pay them much attention. It is essentially a trade group between developing nations all of which except Russia trade with the U.S. Considering India/Chinese relations I am not sure either one of these nations will ever cede printing power to the other. For the foreseeable future it will remain the dollar. |
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CHINA
Jan 3, 2024 17:45:25 GMT
Post by nonentropic on Jan 3, 2024 17:45:25 GMT
The Saudis produce oil and gas the West intends to stop using it, the BRICS are the fastest growing group of users of oil and gas and will use more than everybody else soon or already especially if it gains momentum.
The US is mostly neutral in the FF space producing about as much as they produce with some spill in and out due regions and trade so the wealthy part of the world are at risk here.
Regarding currency of preference at this moment there is still no alternative to the US dollars as the quoted price between trading countries that depends more on price stability of the US relative to the basket of others.
Remember the US is a small player in trade relative to GDP but is still large because of the massive GDP and international corporate scale which plays big in the invisibles trade.
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CHINA
Jan 3, 2024 19:27:10 GMT
via mobile
Post by Sigurdur on Jan 3, 2024 19:27:10 GMT
Good points.
People discount Brazil. One shouldn't.
Also, SWIFT banking is the conversion of local currency to $.
World trade, using the SWIFT banking system, has shrunk dramatically. Down to 52% from over 80% in the past few years.
US sanctions are meaningless if you aren't using the SWIFT banking system.
The US has been dominant in world trade. That Era may be ending.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 5, 2024 16:29:14 GMT
Does your EV do this? Maybe it speaks Chinese.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 6, 2024 20:08:33 GMT
I continue to believe this will happen before Nov. 2024. I also believe the media all federal government and the administration will use the crisis to maintain their power. I was skeptical that China would invade Taiwan this soon. But the last 30 years of economic prosperity has given the Chinese people a taste of capitalism, freedom and wealth. As the economic situation degrades and turns to despair the pressure on Xi Ping Pong will ratchet up. It is clear to me that the Chinese government has no clue on how fix the economy. Manufacturing is sinking and the housing bubble will take years and years to sort out. Xi Ping Pong does not have years and years. You put any bureaucrat in the world in a tough situation and one thing is certain. He will deflect the blame. In this case the finger of blame will point to the west and Taiwan. He has built up the Chinese military for a reason and he is going to use it. I cannot believe that Taiwan is just waiting for a swarm of Chinese landing craft to show up along their coast. Given the advances in drone technology and testing, I gotta believe that Taiwan is gonna give Mama Xi a hot old time before they ever make it to shore. They may not even need much of our help. Chinese fleet and artificial reef may become synonymous. |
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