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Post by acidohm on Feb 12, 2023 7:32:37 GMT
Getting excited to find out exactly what happens here....suggestions of an unusual split vortex, keeping calm until timescales become reality!
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 12, 2023 19:55:01 GMT
2018 in early March we had 2 days with -5°c max daytime temp! It was a short sharp event certainly. I remember 2018 being cold here. Long winter. |
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Post by acidohm on Feb 19, 2023 9:40:42 GMT
Gfs is going nuts for blocking early march.
Can't take it too seriously at this range.
A second (third?) Ssw is on the cards too, its just a wait at this point to see if anything comes of any of this 🤷🏼♂️🤷🏼♂️
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Post by acidohm on Feb 19, 2023 15:34:12 GMT
Slightly pleased to have visualisation I had of downward compression from strat (hence warming) pressurising the trop below creating high pressure and squeezing cold air out to lower latitudes.....confirmed, in a post by an atmospheric scientist.
This means if an area is under a lobe of vortex remenant, high pressure is unlikely to build there and location of ssw becomes very relevant.
Current downward propagation can be seen in below animated forecast....
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Post by acidohm on Feb 20, 2023 6:10:13 GMT
NAM showing negative anomalies moving to earth surface in forecast. This means effects of ssw have propagated to 'our' weather. Still a medium range forecast.  |
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Post by acidohm on Feb 23, 2023 18:40:42 GMT
It's all a bit hazy right now, one ssw has occurred, another imminent.
Bit of a "will it won't it" period, models pretty much useless atm.
But, this guy has an opinion and he's often worth listening too....
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 23, 2023 19:08:41 GMT
The high over the southeast has been relentless most of the winter. It's been very, very mild with near record warmth most of the last several months.
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Post by acidohm on Feb 26, 2023 5:41:20 GMT
Models playing silly buggers at the moment. Currently back on the idea of tropospheric involvement in connection with strat but the signal remains at the far end of timescale. Therefore it's only a possibility for now...we need to see those orange colours move towards real-time.  |
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Post by acidohm on Mar 3, 2023 20:45:19 GMT
Bit of a bust it seems, some effects seem to be due to happen but not significantly so for Europe. US is getting snow? Unusually so?  |
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Post by Sigurdur on Mar 4, 2023 0:13:34 GMT
US snow, well within normals.
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Post by ratty on Mar 4, 2023 1:05:58 GMT
US snow, well within normals. Not David Viner 'normals' though .....  |
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Post by acidohm on Nov 12, 2023 9:17:35 GMT
Interesting analysis on SSW in relation to QBO, ENSO, and solar activity.
Over, the biggest hit is solar max, easterly QBO. Where we are now.
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Post by blustnmtn on Dec 24, 2023 23:08:53 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jan 10, 2024 19:48:26 GMT
So, the SSW Blu mentioned above did happen. It came in as a minor event. However. There have been major SSW occur in recent years that never really filtered down to the troposphere and had negligible effect. However.... This one....looks to be saying hold my beer 🍺 quite interesting to watch this unfold.  |
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Post by acidohm on Jan 12, 2024 21:03:53 GMT
Further to above, it seems this unusual event is upside down, there may be much to digest once everything has panned out!
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