simon
New Member
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Post by simon on Sept 10, 2021 2:19:12 GMT
CPC sees 70-80% chance of La Nina this winter.
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simon
New Member
Posts: 38
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Post by simon on Sept 10, 2021 2:21:10 GMT
Old Farmers Almanac also has the same forecast as Astromet.
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 10, 2021 3:56:11 GMT
CPC sees 70-80% chance of La Nina this winter.
At this point I think the dye is cast. The only real question is how cold will this Nina be and how long does it last. I threw in the 1966 pre-cycle Nina for its depth and length during the second down pulse. Ending point for that down cycle would be about May 2022 if the current Nina follows it. That would coincide with Astro's prediction. Spatially it should have a Central-East Pacific focus. But Region 4 might surprise us.  |
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Astromet
Level 3 Rank
Meanwhile, here in the real world...
Posts: 169
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Post by Astromet on Sept 22, 2021 19:48:13 GMT
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Post by haein45 on Sept 23, 2021 7:10:01 GMT
Autumn 2021 is definitely early. |
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Post by blustnmtn on Sept 23, 2021 12:19:13 GMT
Autumn 2021 is definitely early. Not in the NE. |
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 23, 2021 13:38:19 GMT
Yesterday after the first strong front of the year passed through the wind on Galveston Bay was gusting to 34 knots out of the north prompting the NWS to issue both a small craft advisory and a low water advisory. The low water advisory is something we normally don't see down here until November at the earliest when stronger cold fronts with gusty North to NW winds push the water out of the bays. I don't want to use the word "unprecedented" but this certainly has not happened in recent memory this early in the fall. This morning the temperature bottomed out at 59 degrees so I spent a few minutes on the National Weather Service website researching low temperatures for September 23. It's only been colder than 59 degrees on this date 9 times dating back to 1887 when official records were kept.
So Autumn is definitely early for my part of the world this year. Time will tell if this is outlying cold front or a trend.
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 23, 2021 13:39:32 GMT
Autumn 2021 is definitely early. Not in the NE. Definite chill this morning 50F. |
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Post by acidohm on Sept 23, 2021 16:39:28 GMT
Late in UK, seems like August and September swapped this year, tho changes are afoot...
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Post by shaggy on Sept 25, 2021 18:17:24 GMT
Astromet said:
"As the unusual extreme weather events - ranging from great droughts to great floods - along with the irregularity of seasons; torrential rains, heavy snowfall, ice storms and radical temperatures fluxes continue to frequently make worldwide headlines the fact is that the climate community and media will be forced to talk increasingly about global cooling - caused by the activity of the quiescent Sun."
Whilst I would like nothing more, as sky news love to keep bombarding us with climate data such as how much co2 has been released, temperature increases since 1900 etc., the media will refer to all weather phenomenon as climate change. Now I would accept that phrase as the climate is constantly changing but they use it to refer to 'man-made climate change'. Something that does not exist. The media will then blame billions of tons of co2 being pumped out, that lingers in the atmosphere for centuries now I am reading, for the cause of the climatic shift to cold. Remember the film "the day after tomorrow"? That will be trotted out to prove that co2 has caused a mini ice age and we must reduce co2 - rely on flaky wind power and unreliable solar to heat and light our houses.
The general public, who have become sheeple by believing all of this, will only accept so much. When it hits their pocket hard and they cannot afford to have luxuries, or the power goes out leaving them cold, then they may- just may question the climate change rhetoric. Many will be bullied into accepting the power outages as a sacrifice to help save the planet.
I am currently considering getting a 2.8kw petrol generator as a backup for if/when the power goes out. I only have central heating, no open fire, but I run a bitcoin mining rig that gives out heat. My idea will be to hook that up and continue running it to give heat and pay for the fuel that the generator will demand....
China on the other hand is getting well placed to ride out this winter. Having been on a massive building program of coal fired power stations, and kicked all bitcoin mining out to conserve power, they are in prime position to keep the lights and heat on whilst the Western world stutters under power cuts. Makes you wonder if they already knew about the forthcoming mini ice age?
Sorry, long post and much rambling...
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Post by ratty on Sept 25, 2021 23:34:29 GMT
Astromet said: "As the unusual extreme weather events - ranging from great droughts to great floods - along with the irregularity of seasons; torrential rains, heavy snowfall, ice storms and radical temperatures fluxes continue to frequently make worldwide headlines the fact is that the climate community and media will be forced to talk increasingly about global cooling - caused by the activity of the quiescent Sun." Whilst I would like nothing more, as sky news love to keep bombarding us with climate data such as how much co2 has been released, temperature increases since 1900 etc., the media will refer to all weather phenomenon as climate change. Now I would accept that phrase as the climate is constantly changing but they use it to refer to 'man-made climate change'. Something that does not exist. The media will then blame billions of tons of co2 being pumped out, that lingers in the atmosphere for centuries now I am reading, for the cause of the climatic shift to cold. Remember the film "the day after tomorrow"? That will be trotted out to prove that co2 has caused a mini ice age and we must reduce co2 - rely on flaky wind power and unreliable solar to heat and light our houses. The general public, who have become sheeple by believing all of this, will only accept so much. When it hits their pocket hard and they cannot afford to have luxuries, or the power goes out leaving them cold, then they may- just may question the climate change rhetoric. Many will be bullied into accepting the power outages as a sacrifice to help save the planet. I am currently considering getting a 2.8kw petrol generator as a backup for if/when the power goes out. I only have central heating, no open fire, but I run a bitcoin mining rig that gives out heat. My idea will be to hook that up and continue running it to give heat and pay for the fuel that the generator will demand.... China on the other hand is getting well placed to ride out this winter. Having been on a massive building program of coal fired power stations, and kicked all bitcoin mining out to conserve power, they are in prime position to keep the lights and heat on whilst the Western world stutters under power cuts. Makes you wonder if they already knew about the forthcoming mini ice age? Sorry, long post and much rambling... Good ramble Shaggy and good to see you have found us. |
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 25, 2021 23:43:43 GMT
Ramble as much as you will. We all do our share of that, while hopefully sharing something worthwhile within. I think that the CCP is well aware of their history and what has happened to previous rulers when "the cycles" have hit ... and the people have withdrawn "the mandate of heaven". We will see how efficient they are in dealing with the new one ... and yes, I am hedging that a new set of low cycles are upon us ... and our climate(s) will be cooler and more variable for awhile. If I am wrong, I will embrace a more pleasant climate and will not be sorry that I was wrong. If I am right, I may be more prepared, but may not be very happy. I'll have to take lessons from Code on how to be happy in the snow.  |
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Post by code on Sept 26, 2021 3:09:55 GMT
Ramble as much as you will. We all do our share of that, while hopefully sharing something worthwhile within. I think that the CCP is well aware of their history and what has happened to previous rulers when "the cycles" have hit ... and the people have withdrawn "the mandate of heaven". We will see how efficient they are in dealing with the new one ... and yes, I am hedging that a new set of low cycles are upon us ... and our climate(s) will be cooler and more variable for awhile. If I am wrong, I will embrace a more pleasant climate and will not be sorry that I was wrong. If I am right, I may be more prepared, but may not be very happy. I'll have to take lessons from Code on how to be happy in the snow. Good clothing, layered. Start with a high quality base layer, preferable synthetic. |
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Post by code on Sept 26, 2021 3:14:34 GMT
Old Farmers Almanac also has the same forecast as Astromet.
Does it? I think I read Theo said La Nina and for the PNW that means cold and wet, and Fall is coming to the PNW. The OFA calls for mild and dry which is not a typical La Nina for my part of the planet. I would go with Theo on this one. |
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 26, 2021 5:38:53 GMT
Ramble as much as you will. We all do our share of that, while hopefully sharing something worthwhile within. I think that the CCP is well aware of their history and what has happened to previous rulers when "the cycles" have hit ... and the people have withdrawn "the mandate of heaven". We will see how efficient they are in dealing with the new one ... and yes, I am hedging that a new set of low cycles are upon us ... and our climate(s) will be cooler and more variable for awhile. If I am wrong, I will embrace a more pleasant climate and will not be sorry that I was wrong. If I am right, I may be more prepared, but may not be very happy. I'll have to take lessons from Code on how to be happy in the snow. Good clothing, layered. Start with a high quality base layer, preferable synthetic. Yep. Learned that in Alaska in additional to wool. But after the novelty wore off in about four years, I started to get less happy. My preferred solution would be to follow spring north and south but the budget and family have had different preferences.  Actually the snow wasn't so bad. It was the minus 40+ F that did me in. |
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Actually the snow wasn't so bad. It was the minus 40+ F that did me in.