**ASTROMET LA NINA FORECAST: 2021-2022**

[nonentropic]

From my trip muzzles optional and rare

[missouriboy]

Jun 20, 2022 21:58:55 GMT nonentropic said:

From my trip muzzles optional and rare

More or less the same here in Portugal.  Government says masks still required on public transport and most seem to conform out of habit.  Drivers don't push it and the masks vanish the instant passengers exit the doors.  The Portuguese seem generally well-behaved, friendly people.  Generally easy-going nature and helpful.

Between countries (by air), the rapid antigen tests are still required (mostly).  Efficient airport setups provide test results in 10-15 minutes at 20 euros a shot.  Two slightly bored looking Portuguese airport officials took a quick look at our papers as we entered.  Covid seems pretty much dead, but the testing business seems quite resistant to change.  Number of passengers crossing border times 20 euros each yields a lot of money.  Expect it to remain.  One more tax for a tax-happy society.

Not sure about testing requirements at land border crossings

[ratty]

BOM: Climate Driver Update

Really?

La Niña WATCH activated; negative Indian Ocean Dipole likely

The 2021–22 La Niña event has reached an end, with a majority of indicators currently at neutral levels. However, some model outlooks suggest La Niña may re-form later in 2022. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status has moved to La Niña WATCH. La Niña WATCH means there is around a 50% chance of La Niña forming later in 2022. This is approximately double the normal likelihood.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators have eased further in the past fortnight. Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have continued to warm and have been at ENSO-neutral values for the past five weeks. Similarly, beneath the surface, water temperatures are close to average, or slightly warmer than average. Trade winds are also close to average strength. However, some atmospheric indicators continue to show a La Niña-like signal, including cloudiness along the equator and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).

Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate ENSO is likely to remain neutral through the southern hemisphere winter. Four of the seven models surveyed by the Bureau suggest La Niña could return in spring, with the remainder persisting at neutral ENSO levels.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. However, the IOD index has been below zero over the past six weeks, with the latest weekly value (−0.49 °C) below the negative IOD threshold value of −0.4 °C. All climate model outlooks surveyed suggest a negative IOD is likely to form over the coming months. A negative IOD increases the chances of above average winter–spring rainfall for much of Australia. It also increases the chances of warmer days and nights for northern Australia.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has recently weakened while in the tropical African region. Models generally suggest a weak or indiscernible signal is most likely for the coming week, meaning there would be little influence on rainfall patterns across the global tropics.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently negative, but is expected to rise to positive values before returning to neutral levels late in June. Neutral SAM has little influence on Australian rainfall.

Sea surface temperatures are currently warmer than average around much of the Australian coastline, particularly to the north and west. This pattern is likely to increase the chance of above average winter–spring rainfall for Australia.

Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climate. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.47 °C for the 1910–2020 period. Southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades. There has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia.

[Astromet]

Jun 21, 2022 22:15:33 GMT ratty said:

BOM: Climate Driver Update

Really?

La Niña WATCH activated; negative Indian Ocean Dipole likely

The 2021–22 La Niña event has reached an end, with a majority of indicators currently at neutral levels. However, some model outlooks suggest La Niña may re-form later in 2022. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status has moved to La Niña WATCH. La Niña WATCH means there is around a 50% chance of La Niña forming later in 2022. This is approximately double the normal likelihood.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators have eased further in the past fortnight. Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have continued to warm and have been at ENSO-neutral values for the past five weeks. Similarly, beneath the surface, water temperatures are close to average, or slightly warmer than average. Trade winds are also close to average strength. However, some atmospheric indicators continue to show a La Niña-like signal, including cloudiness along the equator and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).

Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate ENSO is likely to remain neutral through the southern hemisphere winter. Four of the seven models surveyed by the Bureau suggest La Niña could return in spring, with the remainder persisting at neutral ENSO levels.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. However, the IOD index has been below zero over the past six weeks, with the latest weekly value (−0.49 °C) below the negative IOD threshold value of −0.4 °C. All climate model outlooks surveyed suggest a negative IOD is likely to form over the coming months. A negative IOD increases the chances of above average winter–spring rainfall for much of Australia. It also increases the chances of warmer days and nights for northern Australia.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has recently weakened while in the tropical African region. Models generally suggest a weak or indiscernible signal is most likely for the coming week, meaning there would be little influence on rainfall patterns across the global tropics.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently negative, but is expected to rise to positive values before returning to neutral levels late in June. Neutral SAM has little influence on Australian rainfall.

Sea surface temperatures are currently warmer than average around much of the Australian coastline, particularly to the north and west. This pattern is likely to increase the chance of above average winter–spring rainfall for Australia.

Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climate. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.47 °C for the 1910–2020 period. Southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades. There has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia.

See ->> www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01668-1

[ratty]

Jun 28, 2022 14:47:03 GMT Astromet said:

Jun 21, 2022 22:15:33 GMT ratty said:

BOM: Climate Driver Update

Really?

See ->> www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01668-1

Meteorologists are forecasting a third consecutive year of La Niña. Some researchers say similar conditions could become more common as the planet warms.

I think that deserves another "Really?"

[missouriboy]

Jun 28, 2022 15:20:45 GMT ratty said:

Jun 28, 2022 14:47:03 GMT Astromet said:

See ->> www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01668-1

Meteorologists are forecasting a third consecutive year of La Niña. Some researchers say similar conditions could become more common as the planet warms.

I think that deserves another "Really?"

Heat begets cold ... just as morons beget Ph.Ds ... or just a desperate effort to ignore the obvious?  They can only ignore the data for so long.  Their ship is sinking and they must avoid the seemingly obvious climate relation to ENSO and ENSO's relation to Solar cycles.  The two following charts show monthly ENSO SSTA deviations from the 1981-2010 monthly-specific means for regions 1+2, 3, 3.4 and 4 calculated for the first 2+ years of each Solar Cycle (SCs 19 to 25).  The "climate cake" for the next decade is being baked even as we speak.  If ENSO Region 1+2 (top chart right) represents inflows from the Eastern South Pacific, you can see cold setting in ... of a magnitude currently at Solar Cycle 20 levels.  Think the 1970s at least.  It is declining quickly.  The Great Climate Shift of 1976 stands out in the central and western regions.  The high peak of Solar Cycle 23 is due to El Nino warmth flowing all the way to the South American coast.  The decline in ENSO Region 4 has been slower than the eastern regions, but will likely continue to bleed down.  Declines in ENSO regions 1+2 and 3 are very steep.  Region 3.4 is a composite of parts of Regions 3 and 4.  Triple Dip?  Maybe more.  Tally ho.

[ratty]

Jun 28, 2022 17:07:14 GMT missouriboy said:

Jun 28, 2022 15:20:45 GMT ratty said:

I think that deserves another "Really?"

Heat begets cold ... just as morons beget Ph.Ds ... or just a desperate effort to ignore the obvious?  They can only ignore the data for so long.  Their ship is sinking and they must avoid the seemingly obvious climate relation to ENSO and ENSO's relation to Solar cycles.  The two following charts show monthly ENSO SSTA deviations from the 1981-2010 monthly-specific means for regions 1+2, 3, 3.4 and 4 calculated for the first 2+ years of each Solar Cycle (SCs 19 to 25).  The "climate cake" for the next decade is being baked even as we speak.  If ENSO Region 1+2 (top chart right) represents inflows from the Eastern South Pacific, you can see cold setting in ... of a magnitude currently at Solar Cycle 20 levels.  Think the 1970s at least.  It is declining quickly.  The Great Climate Shift of 1976 stands out in the central and western regions.  The high peak of Solar Cycle 23 is due to El Nino warmth flowing all the way to the South American coast.  The decline in ENSO Region 4 has been slower than the eastern regions, but will likely continue to bleed down.  Declines in ENSO regions 1+2 and 3 are very steep.  Region 3.4 is a composite of parts of Regions 3 and 4.  Triple Dip?  Maybe more.  Tally ho.

Great stuff!



PS: The cheque is in the mail.

[duwayne]

Jun 28, 2022 17:07:14 GMT missouriboy said:

Jun 28, 2022 15:20:45 GMT ratty said:

I think that deserves another "Really?"

Heat begets cold ... just as morons beget Ph.Ds ... or just a desperate effort to ignore the obvious?  They can only ignore the data for so long.  Their ship is sinking and they must avoid the seemingly obvious climate relation to ENSO and ENSO's relation to Solar cycles.  The two following charts show monthly ENSO SSTA deviations from the 1981-2010 monthly-specific means for regions 1+2, 3, 3.4 and 4 calculated for the first 2+ years of each Solar Cycle (SCs 19 to 25).  The "climate cake" for the next decade is being baked even as we speak.  If ENSO Region 1+2 (top chart right) represents inflows from the Eastern South Pacific, you can see cold setting in ... of a magnitude currently at Solar Cycle 20 levels.  Think the 1970s at least.  It is declining quickly.  The Great Climate Shift of 1976 stands out in the central and western regions.  The high peak of Solar Cycle 23 is due to El Nino warmth flowing all the way to the South American coast.  The decline in ENSO Region 4 has been slower than the eastern regions, but will likely continue to bleed down.  Declines in ENSO regions 1+2 and 3 are very steep.  Region 3.4 is a composite of parts of Regions 3 and 4.  Triple Dip?  Maybe more.  Tally ho.

Is this showing one cycle of the quasi- 60 year cycle?

[nonentropic]

I need more info what does the tag on the graphs point to just just more detail. This is important because it shows a lot.

I kind of understand it but it needs an explanation for me.

[nonentropic]

you could do a yearly average rather than a monthly it would show more clearly the trend.

also the actual year on the x axis rather than the SC but showing which SC.

This is ground breaking and very compelling.

[missouriboy]

Jun 28, 2022 19:28:44 GMT duwayne said:

Jun 28, 2022 17:07:14 GMT missouriboy said:

Heat begets cold ... just as morons beget Ph.Ds ... or just a desperate effort to ignore the obvious?  They can only ignore the data for so long.  Their ship is sinking and they must avoid the seemingly obvious climate relation to ENSO and ENSO's relation to Solar cycles.  The two following charts show monthly ENSO SSTA deviations from the 1981-2010 monthly-specific means for regions 1+2, 3, 3.4 and 4 calculated for the first 2+ years of each Solar Cycle (SCs 19 to 25).  The "climate cake" for the next decade is being baked even as we speak.  If ENSO Region 1+2 (top chart right) represents inflows from the Eastern South Pacific, you can see cold setting in ... of a magnitude currently at Solar Cycle 20 levels.  Think the 1970s at least.  It is declining quickly.  The Great Climate Shift of 1976 stands out in the central and western regions.  The high peak of Solar Cycle 23 is due to El Nino warmth flowing all the way to the South American coast.  The decline in ENSO Region 4 has been slower than the eastern regions, but will likely continue to bleed down.  Declines in ENSO regions 1+2 and 3 are very steep.  Region 3.4 is a composite of parts of Regions 3 and 4.  Triple Dip?  Maybe more.  Tally ho.

Is this showing one cycle of the quasi- 60 year cycle?

Certainly possible. It represents ENSO Region values during the "ramp-up" phase (the first 36 months) of seven solar cycles starting in January of the solar cycle start year (SC25 is 7 months short so far). This amounts to nearly 69 years (1954-2022). Unfortunately, we a sample of one full cycle.

[missouriboy]

Jun 28, 2022 22:10:32 GMT nonentropic said:

you could do a yearly average rather than a monthly it would show more clearly the trend.

also the actual year on the x axis rather than the SC but showing which SC.

This is ground breaking and very compelling.

All good suggestions.  It is a bit "busy".  I'll clean it up and re-post. 

[nonentropic]

MB is there any usable data before this imagine if this could be worked back to say 1920 or so. That is with credence.

Is the water temperature data "homogenized' or worked?

[missouriboy]

Jun 28, 2022 23:39:24 GMT nonentropic said:

MB is there any usable data before this imagine if this could be worked back to say 1920 or so. That is with credence.

Is the water temperature data "homogenized' or worked?

Back on the old site, Icefisher used to talk about the scarcity and unreliability of Pacific data prior to WWII.  I have not found anything to challenge that assessment.  The 1950 start date for the ENSO regions is pretty much it for direct SST measurements.  The published data are (I assume) averages for the whole region.  There is always the SOI, which is correlated with ENSO, but is not a direct measure of SSTs.  As shown below, it might be useable for rough estimates of mid-Pacific SSTs.  Others have probably tried it.

www.weather.gov/jetstream/enso

[ratty]

Jun 28, 2022 22:10:32 GMT nonentropic said:

you could do a yearly average rather than a monthly it would show more clearly the trend.

also the actual year on the x axis rather than the SC but showing which SC.

This is ground breaking and very compelling.

I'll speak with the board about additional funding.