simon
New Member
Posts: 38 
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Post by simon on Nov 19, 2021 14:19:30 GMT
I do not think NOAA"s seasonal forecasting is all that complex. They simply look at all the La Nina winters come up with a rough average of how the past winters turned out and presto... They make a map of the US based on what happened in the past. In my part of the world four of the coldest outbreaks we have had happened in 1976, 1983, 1989 and last February. All of those years were La Nina years. Our coldest year and one of the coldest nationwide was 1976. Which happened to be a back to back La Nina year. So my guess (and forecasting the weather past 10 days is pretty much a crapshoot for even the best forecasters in the world) is that NOAA's forecast will be twice as bad as it normally is. ggweather.com/enso/oni.htmIf anything past 10 days is a crapshoot then I guess Astro's forecast is a crapshoot too? |
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 19, 2021 14:42:19 GMT
I do not think NOAA"s seasonal forecasting is all that complex. They simply look at all the La Nina winters come up with a rough average of how the past winters turned out and presto... They make a map of the US based on what happened in the past. In my part of the world four of the coldest outbreaks we have had happened in 1976, 1983, 1989 and last February. All of those years were La Nina years. Our coldest year and one of the coldest nationwide was 1976. Which happened to be a back to back La Nina year. So my guess (and forecasting the weather past 10 days is pretty much a crapshoot for even the best forecasters in the world) is that NOAA's forecast will be twice as bad as it normally is. ggweather.com/enso/oni.htmIf anything past 10 days is a crapshoot then I guess Astro's forecast is a crapshoot too? We can all do basicly the same thing if we make it general enough. I can forecast that winter will be colder on average than summer, and be correct ... and also relatively worthless. From their December temperature forecast map it appears that there is less than a 33% chance that the NE US (NE of me) will have a colder than normal winter. And ditto in the SW US with a distinct probability of warmer than normal. For the winter, this all slides east and the NW US is lower than normal. Interesting that all these past merridional flow events that they can't help but have noticed, are all in vain ... and produce nothing dramatic on average. Just a slightly concave-up set of contours headed east that perhaps hint at such a thing. Since Astro links these events to greater astronomic forces, his forecast looks nothing like NOAA's. I gotta think that NOAA's shake-and-bake can is minus a few ingrediants ... and generalized as per Glenn. And Wiki still calls astrology a pseudoscience. Astrology is a pseudoscience that claims to discern information about human affairs and terrestrial events by studying the movements and relative positions of celestial objects.I wonder what they call CO2ology. |
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Post by acidohm on Nov 19, 2021 19:09:23 GMT
I do not think NOAA"s seasonal forecasting is all that complex. They simply look at all the La Nina winters come up with a rough average of how the past winters turned out and presto... They make a map of the US based on what happened in the past. In my part of the world four of the coldest outbreaks we have had happened in 1976, 1983, 1989 and last February. All of those years were La Nina years. Our coldest year and one of the coldest nationwide was 1976. Which happened to be a back to back La Nina year. So my guess (and forecasting the weather past 10 days is pretty much a crapshoot for even the best forecasters in the world) is that NOAA's forecast will be twice as bad as it normally is. ggweather.com/enso/oni.htmIf anything past 10 days is a crapshoot then I guess Astro's forecast is a crapshoot too? As I've had my eyes, yet again, opened too....unless its forecasting normal conditions, even 5 days is a stretch. |
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Post by glennkoks on Nov 19, 2021 19:22:02 GMT
I do not think NOAA"s seasonal forecasting is all that complex. They simply look at all the La Nina winters come up with a rough average of how the past winters turned out and presto... They make a map of the US based on what happened in the past. In my part of the world four of the coldest outbreaks we have had happened in 1976, 1983, 1989 and last February. All of those years were La Nina years. Our coldest year and one of the coldest nationwide was 1976. Which happened to be a back to back La Nina year. So my guess (and forecasting the weather past 10 days is pretty much a crapshoot for even the best forecasters in the world) is that NOAA's forecast will be twice as bad as it normally is. ggweather.com/enso/oni.htmIf anything past 10 days is a crapshoot then I guess Astro's forecast is a crapshoot too? Personally, I am skeptical of anyones ability to forecast the weather outside of 10 days. Astromet is a pretty bright guy who works hard on his forecasts. He has made some very specific claims and we will see if they validate or not. I have not always seen eye to eye with him but I must admit that he spends a lot of time researching and I for one look forward to reading his posts and forecasts. One of the best things about this site is the regulars and the input they provide. I have learned a lot from reading these posts over the years. We live on a planet orbiting a variable star. There are probably thousands and thousands of factors and feedbacks that have an influence on our climate other than CO2. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that the celestial movements of other planets and our star have an effect on our climate. Perhaps Astro has picked up on some of these relationships? |
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Post by acidohm on Nov 19, 2021 23:10:41 GMT
If anything past 10 days is a crapshoot then I guess Astro's forecast is a crapshoot too? Personally, I am skeptical of anyones ability to forecast the weather outside of 10 days. Astromet is a pretty bright guy who works hard on his forecasts. He has made some very specific claims and we will see if they validate or not. I have not always seen eye to eye with him but I must admit that he spends a lot of time researching and I for one look forward to reading his posts and forecasts. One of the best things about this site is the regulars and the input they provide. I have learned a lot from reading these posts over the years. We live on a planet orbiting a variable star. There are probably thousands and thousands of factors and feedbacks that have an influence on our climate other than CO2. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that the celestial movements of other planets and our star have an effect on our climate. Perhaps Astro has picked up on some of these relationships? To be fair, its an open jury on his Nina forecast certainly. It's looking good for a decent Nina, but the timescales he alludes to means we can't verify his forecast until this time next year! We really are at a crux point. If global temps do not move from a recent historical direction in the next year, there's little to put to those who argue CO² does what they propose it does, at a time when the movement which supports CO² involvement is gaining momentum....generally. I think Astros methodology incorporates both the metaphysical and physical. The basis of his forecast is rooted in the metaphysical astronomy which itself predates modern astrophysics. At the same time however, he goes to great lengths to explain the physical relationships as can be understood by an understanding of modern science. I actually find his whole process really quite impressive, the work involved is really something and his posts here are very well presented considering we're just a bunch of scientific reprobates 😄 I'm rooting for him, I'm emotionally invested in the success of his forecasts. We are within months of knowing if he's on the right path or not. |
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Post by glennkoks on Nov 20, 2021 0:27:01 GMT
In all fairness I do not nick pick Astromet's forecast. If what he is predicting comes to pass we will all know it. He has been very specific that the weather will cause disruptions in our life. Major disruptions...
I am skeptical because we are in an interglacial period and the earth is doing what it has done during every interglacial period. We are in a warming phase. There is a lot of heat stored in our oceans and to my understanding it's going to take time to shed that heat.
With that being said we now know that the earth's climate has and can change very fast. For some reason I do not clearly understand 1976 was the coldest year for many of us and also the year of the Great Pacific Climate Shift. For most of us the climate has not been the same since.
If it "shifted" in 1976 to a warmer phase it most certainly can shift to a colder one this year.
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Post by pbfoot on Nov 20, 2021 1:27:19 GMT
In all fairness I do not nick pick Astromet's forecast. If what he is predicting comes to pass we will all know it. He has been very specific that the weather will cause disruptions in our life. Major disruptions... I am skeptical because we are in an interglacial period and the earth is doing what it has done during every interglacial period. We are in a warming phase. There is a lot of heat stored in our oceans and to my understanding it's going to take time to shed that heat. With that being said we now know that the earth's climate has and can change very fast. For some reason I do not clearly understand 1976 was the coldest year for many of us and also the year of the Great Pacific Climate Shift. For most of us the climate has not been the same since. If it "shifted" in 1976 to a warmer phase it most certainly can shift to a colder one this year. Are you aware of the Southeastern United States cooling anomaly? Heat content of the oceans is not a factor that is known with any certainty. Weather is driven by the sun and the oceans. It stands to reason the "climate" can as well. My family moved to Alabama in 1972. We didn't experience snow in Birmibgham until the winter of 76/77 and then it snowed every winter, usually in January or February, but sometimes all the way into Apeil. The climate definitely shifted. |
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Astromet
Level 3 Rank
Meanwhile, here in the real world...
Posts: 169
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Post by Astromet on Nov 20, 2021 1:29:02 GMT
I do not think NOAA"s seasonal forecasting is all that complex. They simply look at all the La Nina winters come up with a rough average of how the past winters turned out and presto... They make a map of the US based on what happened in the past. In my part of the world four of the coldest outbreaks we have had happened in 1976, 1983, 1989 and last February. All of those years were La Nina years. Our coldest year and one of the coldest nationwide was 1976. Which happened to be a back to back La Nina year. So my guess (and forecasting the weather past 10 days is pretty much a crapshoot for even the best forecasters in the world) is that NOAA's forecast will be twice as bad as it normally is. ggweather.com/enso/oni.htmIf anything past 10 days is a crapshoot then I guess Astro's forecast is a crapshoot too? Anything past 10 days is 'not' a crapshoot, except for those who cannot forecast. I can forecast and have been doing so a long time.  |
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Astromet
Level 3 Rank
Meanwhile, here in the real world...
Posts: 169
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Post by Astromet on Nov 20, 2021 1:35:07 GMT
Personally, I am skeptical of anyones ability to forecast the weather outside of 10 days. Astromet is a pretty bright guy who works hard on his forecasts. He has made some very specific claims and we will see if they validate or not. I have not always seen eye to eye with him but I must admit that he spends a lot of time researching and I for one look forward to reading his posts and forecasts. One of the best things about this site is the regulars and the input they provide. I have learned a lot from reading these posts over the years. We live on a planet orbiting a variable star. There are probably thousands and thousands of factors and feedbacks that have an influence on our climate other than CO2. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that the celestial movements of other planets and our star have an effect on our climate. Perhaps Astro has picked up on some of these relationships? To be fair, its an open jury on his Nina forecast certainly. It's looking good for a decent Nina, but the timescales he alludes to means we can't verify his forecast until this time next year! We really are at a crux point. If global temps do not move from a recent historical direction in the next year, there's little to put to those who argue CO² does what they propose it does, at a time when the movement which supports CO² involvement is gaining momentum....generally. I think Astros methodology incorporates both the metaphysical and physical. The basis of his forecast is rooted in the metaphysical astronomy which itself predates modern astrophysics. At the same time however, he goes to great lengths to explain the physical relationships as can be understood by an understanding of modern science. I actually find his whole process really quite impressive, the work involved is really something and his posts here are very well presented considering we're just a bunch of scientific reprobates 😄 I'm rooting for him, I'm emotionally invested in the success of his forecasts. We are within months of knowing if he's on the right path or not. As astrologers 'invented' Meteorology, I think I have a very good handle on forecasting here, in the physical world. Astrometeorology has been a science for thousands of years. As for La Niña, there are members here who will remember my climate forecast back in 2010-11 on the current La Niña for 2021-2022. It has been 12 years since I forecast this current La Niña and the facts speak for themselves as it is happening here, now, for anyone to see.  |
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Post by pbfoot on Nov 20, 2021 2:31:35 GMT
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Astromet
Level 3 Rank
Meanwhile, here in the real world...
Posts: 169
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Post by Astromet on Nov 23, 2021 8:05:39 GMT
In all fairness I do not nick pick Astromet's forecast. If what he is predicting comes to pass we will all know it. He has been very specific that the weather will cause disruptions in our life. Major disruptions... I am skeptical because we are in an interglacial period and the earth is doing what it has done during every interglacial period. We are in a warming phase. There is a lot of heat stored in our oceans and to my understanding it's going to take time to shed that heat. With that being said we now know that the earth's climate has and can change very fast. For some reason I do not clearly understand 1976 was the coldest year for many of us and also the year of the Great Pacific Climate Shift. For most of us the climate has not been the same since. If it "shifted" in 1976 to a warmer phase it most certainly can shift to a colder one this year. Are you aware of the Southeastern United States cooling anomaly? Heat content of the oceans is not a factor that is known with any certainty. Weather is driven by the sun and the oceans. It stands to reason the "climate" can as well. My family moved to Alabama in 1972. We didn't experience snow in Birmibgham until the winter of 76/77 and then it snowed every winter, usually in January or February, but sometimes all the way into Apeil. The climate definitely shifted. And the climate is shifting more into the global cooling under an increasingly quiescent Sun. Already, December-like temperatures are taking place in November 2021, the start of winter 2021/2022 as I have forecast. See ->> news.yahoo.com/nashville-open-extreme-cold-weather-142301510.htmlSee ->> finance.yahoo.com/news/snow-squalls-return-over-southern-124803074.htmlSee ->> www.yahoo.com/news/mountains-northern-spain-coated-snow-173532499.html |
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simon
New Member
Posts: 38
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Post by simon on Nov 23, 2021 20:18:52 GMT
NOAA's latest 8-14 day forecast
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simon
New Member
Posts: 38
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Post by simon on Nov 23, 2021 20:20:18 GMT
NOAA's latest 3-4 week outlook....Happy Thanksgiving to all!
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 23, 2021 23:15:43 GMT
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simon
New Member
Posts: 38
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Post by simon on Nov 24, 2021 4:09:12 GMT
Good link and a good read, thanks. Looks like they are forecasting above avg temps. |
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