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Post by glennkoks on Nov 24, 2021 13:40:39 GMT
NOAA's latest 8-14 day forecast
One thing is certain. Using their track record as a guide, what actually happens the next two weeks will almost certainly look different than their forecast on the map. |
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simon
New Member
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Post by simon on Nov 28, 2021 21:46:32 GMT
Latest CFSv2 monthly forecast
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simon
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Post by simon on Nov 28, 2021 21:48:09 GMT
NOAA's latest 3-4 week outlook...old man winter has yet to show himself.
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 29, 2021 0:41:34 GMT
NOAA's latest 3-4 week outlook...old man winter has yet to show himself.
He's been busy banging on China ... and now Europe. I fear to guess who's next. |
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Post by glennkoks on Nov 29, 2021 12:57:04 GMT
NOAA's latest 3-4 week outlook...old man winter has yet to show himself.
From NOAA: "The current Week 3-4 outlook is based on other large scale signals such as the present La Nina conditions and the projected positive phase of the NAO, as well as blends from the dynamical model guidance including the GEFS, CFS, Canadian, ECMWF, JMA, the SubX multi-model ensemble (MME), and statistical guidance." NOAA is clearly basing their forecast on three things. La Nina, the positive phase of the NAO and dynamical model guidance. The effects of La Nina and a positive phase of the NAO are based solely on historical trends. There are many examples of weather bucking the trend. Then there are those dynamical models who's accuracy is so poor outside of say seven days (i'm being generous) that even the most seasoned meteorologists ignore them outside of a week... The weather in 3-4 weeks most likely will look nothing at all like the above map... |
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simon
New Member
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Post by simon on Nov 30, 2021 3:50:47 GMT
NOAA's latest 3-4 week outlook...old man winter has yet to show himself.
From NOAA: "The current Week 3-4 outlook is based on other large scale signals such as the present La Nina conditions and the projected positive phase of the NAO, as well as blends from the dynamical model guidance including the GEFS, CFS, Canadian, ECMWF, JMA, the SubX multi-model ensemble (MME), and statistical guidance." NOAA is clearly basing their forecast on three things. La Nina, the positive phase of the NAO and dynamical model guidance. The effects of La Nina and a positive phase of the NAO are based solely on historical trends. There are many examples of weather bucking the trend. Then there are those dynamical models who's accuracy is so poor outside of say seven days (i'm being generous) that even the most seasoned meteorologists ignore them outside of a week... The weather in 3-4 weeks most likely will look nothing at all like the above map...
So far NOAA has been dead on for their winter forecast which was for above avg temps for the U.S. Oct was warmer than normal over the entire country. Nov was warmer than normal for the western half of the country but slightly below normal temps for the eastern half. So far Dec is pointing to warmer than normal on the 6-10, 8-14 and their monthly outlook. I'm not trying to convince anyone that this is how the weather will unfold. I look at the forecast then follow it on a daily basis to see how it unfolds and so far they have been spot on and that's good enough for me.
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simon
New Member
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Post by simon on Nov 30, 2021 3:58:58 GMT
NOAA's latest 3-4 week outlook...old man winter has yet to show himself.
He's been busy banging on China ... and now Europe. I fear to guess who's next. Hopefully us. I would like to hit the slopes. |
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simon
New Member
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Post by simon on Dec 2, 2021 18:47:07 GMT
The latest Judah Cohen forecast...enjoy!
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Post by ratty on Dec 2, 2021 23:53:55 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 3, 2021 0:29:11 GMT
From NOAA: "The current Week 3-4 outlook is based on other large scale signals such as the present La Nina conditions and the projected positive phase of the NAO, as well as blends from the dynamical model guidance including the GEFS, CFS, Canadian, ECMWF, JMA, the SubX multi-model ensemble (MME), and statistical guidance." NOAA is clearly basing their forecast on three things. La Nina, the positive phase of the NAO and dynamical model guidance. The effects of La Nina and a positive phase of the NAO are based solely on historical trends. There are many examples of weather bucking the trend. Then there are those dynamical models who's accuracy is so poor outside of say seven days (i'm being generous) that even the most seasoned meteorologists ignore them outside of a week... The weather in 3-4 weeks most likely will look nothing at all like the above map...
So far NOAA has been dead on for their winter forecast which was for above avg temps for the U.S. Oct was warmer than normal over the entire country. Nov was warmer than normal for the western half of the country but slightly below normal temps for the eastern half. So far Dec is pointing to warmer than normal on the 6-10, 8-14 and their monthly outlook. I'm not trying to convince anyone that this is how the weather will unfold. I look at the forecast then follow it on a daily basis to see how it unfolds and so far they have been spot on and that's good enough for me.
It's been warm no doubt. But I have seen to many NOAA fails to jump on their accuracy bandwagon just yet. |
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 3, 2021 2:41:18 GMT
The latest Judah Cohen forecast...enjoy! Wouldn't break my heart to have a warm winter ... with just enough cold to kill the ticks.  |
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Post by ratty on Dec 3, 2021 5:20:41 GMT
The latest Judah Cohen forecast...enjoy! Wouldn't break my heart to have a warm winter ... with just enough cold to kill the ticks. Might break Astro's ..... .  |
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 3, 2021 7:12:13 GMT
Wouldn't break my heart to have a warm winter ... with just enough cold to kill the ticks. Might break Astro's ..... . If he gets magnitudes for 2 of 3 Northern Hemisphere continents, that's pretty good in the realm of forecasting. Asia and Europe have seemingly started early and hard. Our north American winter seasons have been drifting more toward spring, seemingly for some time. That leaves us 4 full months. January on into April could be hard on the fruit crop with late May frosts. Same thing happened last spring. Not an apple. |
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 3, 2021 11:02:42 GMT
Might break Astro's ..... . If he gets magnitudes for 2 of 3 Northern Hemisphere continents, that's pretty good in the realm of forecasting. Asia and Europe have seemingly started early and hard. Our north American winter seasons have been drifting more toward spring, seemingly for some time. That leaves us 4 full months. January on into April could be hard on the fruit crop with late May frosts. Same thing happened last spring. Not an apple. I am waiting for the November climate summary to come out from the MET to verify but I doubt last month was colder than average for the UK. But it seems that both Europe and North America was had a warmer than normal November. Asia most likely was below normal. |
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Post by ratty on Dec 3, 2021 12:26:54 GMT
120-year-old Aussie weather records tumbleIf you thought last month was a bit wetter than average, well you weren’t wrong.
It’s official – Australia had it’s wettest November since records began and its coolest November since 1999, the Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed.
November also marked New South Wales’ wettest on record since 1900, with multiple locations across the state seeing atrocious weather and exceeding their previous highest rain totals.
Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Bureau of Meteorology senior meteorologist Agata Imielska said the conditions were brought on by a “lingering influence” from a negative Indian Ocean Dipole climate driver west of Australia coupled with La Nina developing in the Pacific Ocean.
“We’ve seen record wet conditions in November across NSW. Statewide, NSW has recorded the wettest November — this is for records going back to 1900,” she explained.
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