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Post by pbfoot on Nov 18, 2021 14:19:29 GMT
Houston has been below normal for most of October and now November. What area are you referring to? Houston and most of SE Texas was above normal for October. www.weather.gov/hgx/climatesummaries I am appreciating the effort you took. I'm sorry, but I have been lurking on the 24 board for 10 years. I thought this was a skeptic site. |
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Post by walnut on Nov 18, 2021 14:22:39 GMT
Read on NOAA about their data processing procedures. Some pretty sophisticated math has produced the recent "hottest years on record". The same data, uncorrupted. temperature.global |
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Post by pbfoot on Nov 18, 2021 14:26:55 GMT
Read on NOAA about their data processing procedures. Some pretty sophisticated math has produced the recent "hottest years on record". The same data, uncorrupted. temperature.global The expose on WUWT years ago on siting problems at the weather stations was a real eye opener for me. Most on asphalt or at airports. Not to mention the slow urban creep swallowing previously rural weather stations. |
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simon
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Post by simon on Nov 18, 2021 14:48:42 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Nov 18, 2021 15:03:17 GMT
I am appreciating the effort you took. I'm sorry, but I have been lurking on the 24 board for 10 years. I thought this was a skeptic site. It's one thing to be skeptical, another to ignore data. Acknowledging that October in one small part of the globe was warm shouldn't put anyones skeptical beliefs in question... |
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Post by pbfoot on Nov 18, 2021 15:26:30 GMT
I am appreciating the effort you took. I'm sorry, but I have been lurking on the 24 board for 10 years. I thought this was a skeptic site. It's one thing to be skeptical, another to ignore data. Acknowledging that October in one small part of the globe was warm shouldn't put anyones skeptical beliefs in question... I'm not ignoring all data. Just theirs. |
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 18, 2021 15:44:50 GMT
I looked at an east-west swath from western kansas to north-central kentucky, 3 stations including COMO for the first 17 days of November. Alternating negative-positive-negative-positive anomalies with a large variance moving through the entire swath (-6F +9F -6F +9F) ... (6 days 5 days 3 days 3 days). Tempo increasing. I have seen colder Novembers. Asia and now Europe may be be catching the brunt of the cold southward push. We be next? My observations from my window thermometer and outdoor skin reaction doesn't vary much from theirs. I am not calibrated to tenths of a degree.  |
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Post by Sigurdur on Nov 18, 2021 16:11:25 GMT
Screenshot that sucker. Reliability of their forecast is less than 30% |
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Post by glennkoks on Nov 18, 2021 20:51:11 GMT
It's one thing to be skeptical, another to ignore data. Acknowledging that October in one small part of the globe was warm shouldn't put anyones skeptical beliefs in question... I'm not ignoring all data. Just theirs. I compare their temps recorded at the airport with my thermometer at home, in my truck and at the weatherbug site at a nearby school. They are always within a degree or so one way or the other. I don't doubt their current temps. I do not trust their historical data and reconstructions. |
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simon
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Post by simon on Nov 19, 2021 2:52:58 GMT
NOAA's recently released seasonal forecast for DEC JAN FEB
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simon
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Post by simon on Nov 19, 2021 2:55:39 GMT
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Post by ratty on Nov 19, 2021 6:10:12 GMT
Read on NOAA about their data processing procedures. Some pretty sophisticated math has produced the recent "hottest years on record". The same data, uncorrupted. temperature.global The expose on WUWT years ago on siting problems at the weather stations was a real eye opener for me. Most on asphalt or at airports. Not to mention the slow urban creep swallowing previously rural weather stations. |
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 19, 2021 8:08:08 GMT
The expose on WUWT years ago on siting problems at the weather stations was a real eye opener for me. Most on asphalt or at airports. Not to mention the slow urban creep swallowing previously rural weather stations. An awful lot of >2C stations in that N American pack. Interesting that 2C is what we are supposed to avoid OR we are all gonna die. |
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Post by glennkoks on Nov 19, 2021 13:09:19 GMT
I do not think NOAA"s seasonal forecasting is all that complex. They simply look at all the La Nina winters come up with a rough average of how the past winters turned out and presto... They make a map of the US based on what happened in the past. In my part of the world four of the coldest outbreaks we have had happened in 1976, 1983, 1989 and last February. All of those years were La Nina years. Our coldest year and one of the coldest nationwide was 1976. Which happened to be a back to back La Nina year. So my guess (and forecasting the weather past 10 days is pretty much a crapshoot for even the best forecasters in the world) is that NOAA's forecast will be twice as bad as it normally is. ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm |
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Post by pbfoot on Nov 19, 2021 13:12:24 GMT
I do not think NOAA"s seasonal forecasting is all that complex. They simply look at all the La Nina winters come up with a rough average of how the past winters turned out and presto... They make a map of the US based on what happened in the past. In my part of the world four of the coldest outbreaks we have had happened in 1976, 1983, 1989 and last February. All of those years were La Nina years. Our coldest year and one of the coldest nationwide was 1976. Which happened to be a back to back La Nina year. So my guess (and forecasting the weather past 10 days is pretty much a crapshoot for even the best forecasters in the world) is that NOAA's forecast will be twice as bad as it normally is. ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm I remember reading a critique of the accuracy of their long term forecasts. It was worse than a coin toss most years. |
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