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Post by acidohm on Nov 8, 2021 18:15:46 GMT
Apologies I can't help myself.....models are going crazy but you could post charts like this at this range all the time and just come across as hysterical.
However....Look At That Chart!!!! 2010 re-run!! 😲
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 8, 2021 19:18:17 GMT
And they say that climate (weather) doesn't have a memory. Hmmmmm.
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Post by acidohm on Nov 8, 2021 22:09:51 GMT
And they say that climate (weather) doesn't have a memory. Hmmmmm. Well....if it happens we could place that thought on the discussion table! |
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Post by pbfoot on Nov 9, 2021 22:03:50 GMT
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Post by ratty on Nov 9, 2021 23:42:11 GMT
And they say that climate (weather) doesn't have a memory. Hmmmmm. Well....if it happens we could place that thought on the discussion table! Aren't things complicated enough already? |
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 10, 2021 2:17:11 GMT
Well....if it happens we could place that thought on the discussion table! Aren't things complicated enough already? Missouri loves company.  |
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 10, 2021 4:12:40 GMT
The PDO value for October just dropped to its lowest monthly value in the entire 1950-2021 timeseries (-3.06). There is a huge patch of cold water off of NW North America.
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Post by acidohm on Nov 10, 2021 10:28:55 GMT
And they say that climate (weather) doesn't have a memory. Hmmmmm. Well, it's gone now from output.....should never get excited until in 2-3 day range! |
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Post by duwayne on Nov 10, 2021 15:29:28 GMT
The PDO value for October just dropped to its lowest monthly value in the entire 1950-2021 timeseries (-3.06). There is a huge patch of cold water off of NW North America. As you say, the PDO fell big-time in October to a really low number, -3.06. This is a small point, but the version of the PDO linked below doesn't show it as a record low. In October 1955 it was -3.35. In July 1950 it was -3.65.
This link shows a graphical history of the PDO.
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 10, 2021 16:45:31 GMT
The PDO value for October just dropped to its lowest monthly value in the entire 1950-2021 timeseries (-3.06). There is a huge patch of cold water off of NW North America. As you say, the PDO fell big-time in October to a really low number, -3.06. This is a small point, but the version of the PDO linked below doesn't show it as a record low. In October 1955 it was -3.35. In July 1950 it was -3.65.
This link shows a graphical history of the PDO.
You are right. I grabbed the NOAA 1950-on series. Yep. Looks like I should have said, "lowest monthly value in the pre-winter months since 1955". Worth noting that the October, 2021 value is just barely below November 2011 (-2.95) and October 2012 (-2.99) ... and PDO values were negative for practically all of the 2010-2012 period. Current PDO values have been negative since January, 2020. If high pressure increases off the NW coast, in combination with a negative AO, things could get exciting.  |
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 12, 2021 20:58:13 GMT
What a difference between forecasts. Won't be hard to figure out which one of these is closer to correct after the fact. Judah Cohen's is closer to Joe Bastardi's for North America. The models seem closer to Al Gore. In a few months it might be time to retire some modelers. Given what has been happening in Spain, Portugal and the Alps, the Western Europe forecasts may be way off. From: www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/in Figure i, I present a preliminary AER winter forecast that was shared with clients at the end of October. I will share an update to the winter forecast on the blog at the end of the month.  Figure ii a consensus of the dynamical model temperature anomaly forecast from the North American Model Ensemble (NNME). The dynamical models are predicting almost universal relative warmth across the Northern Hemisphere continents except for Alaska and Western Canada. Across North America it is a canonical La Niña pattern and across Eurasia it is a global warming signal.  |
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Post by acidohm on Nov 13, 2021 18:21:13 GMT
What a difference between forecasts. Won't be hard to figure out which one of these is closer to correct after the fact. Judah Cohen's is closer to Joe Bastardi's for North America. The models seem closer to Al Gore. In a few months it might be time to retire some modelers. Given what has been happening in Spain, Portugal and the Alps, the Western Europe forecasts may be way off. From: www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/in Figure i, I present a preliminary AER winter forecast that was shared with clients at the end of October. I will share an update to the winter forecast on the blog at the end of the month. Figure ii a consensus of the dynamical model temperature anomaly forecast from the North American Model Ensemble (NNME). The dynamical models are predicting almost universal relative warmth across the Northern Hemisphere continents except for Alaska and Western Canada. Across North America it is a canonical La Niña pattern and across Eurasia it is a global warming signal. This chap summarised the main models recently at long range, ie, through winter. Pretty much they all go for +AO. which results in what you describe Mr.Missouri, as GW Europe. I'd bet not a single model accounts for solar forced blocking and possibly underestimates la Nina, somethings that a human can judge. |
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 14, 2021 0:14:56 GMT
But they're awfully damn sure they can forecast 30 years out. Hypocracy and self-rightous asshole are synomenous terms.
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Post by acidohm on Nov 14, 2021 7:37:46 GMT
But they're awfully damn sure they can forecast 30 years out. Hypocracy and self-rightous asshole are synomenous terms. I just really hope it cools with no reasonable doubt. I do really want this insanity to go away. We just seem so close to a change atm but we are very much in reasonable doubt territory. |
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Post by acidohm on Nov 14, 2021 8:12:52 GMT
Apologies I can't help myself.....models are going crazy but you could post charts like this at this range all the time and just come across as hysterical. However....Look At That Chart!!!! 2010 re-run!! 😲 Well it went for a while but its back, not to same extent but a northerly plunge, on the 20th. Above was due 19th so there's some consistency....just now we're edging towards reliable time frame. |
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