|
|
Post by duwayne on Aug 4, 2024 15:45:01 GMT
One could almost think that there was some cyclical effect on the solar system barycentre, maybe caused by something like, I don't know, planetary orbital motion? I would not be surprised if this is the last gasp of SC25's solar maximum, but then the sun is notoriously keen on disproving our theories  I agree on both points. There has to be something controlling the 11 year cycle and planetary orbital motion might be it. As I've mentioned before, I think the sun might only need a small "nudge" of evenly timed planetary energy to control the cycle. |
|
|
|
Post by tyrbiter on Aug 4, 2024 16:35:05 GMT
Coincidentially? ... notice how close the normalized sunspot progression is beginning same point in Cycle 11 and 23 ... and continuing. SCs 24 and 25 have been directly compared size-wise to SCs 12 &13. It continues? Last call?
Is there any planetary cycle of around 130 years? Planet Orbital period
Jupiter 12 years Saturn 30 years Uranus 84 years Neptune 165 years
12 + 30 + 84 = 126
165 - 30 = 135
Other planets have much smaller but probably non-negligible effects. Earth-Sun distance will be (and has been) modulated by these cycles.
There will be quite a few other cycles made up of additive and subtractive cycles with the above lengths and multiples of them.
|
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Aug 4, 2024 16:48:39 GMT
One could almost think that there was some cyclical effect on the solar system barycentre, maybe caused by something like, I don't know, planetary orbital motion? I would not be surprised if this is the last gasp of SC25's solar maximum, but then the sun is notoriously keen on disproving our theories Indeed... |
|
|
|
Post by code on Aug 4, 2024 18:29:15 GMT
One could almost think that there was some cyclical effect on the solar system barycentre, maybe caused by something like, I don't know, planetary orbital motion? I would not be surprised if this is the last gasp of SC25's solar maximum, but then the sun is notoriously keen on disproving our theories Indeed... I think Astro would be a good person to ask about POM. |
|
|
|
Post by tyrbiter on Aug 5, 2024 12:29:51 GMT
I think Astro would be a good person to ask about POM. There's a paper and a review of it here:
To me it stands to reason, the barycentre of the solar system is sometimes outside the sun's surface and there must be a gravitational effect on the sun's internal circulation which manifests as variations in the solar dynamo.
|
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Aug 5, 2024 16:31:42 GMT
Be nice if hemispheric influences could be accounted for, tho only mercury at (max) 6° deviation from orbital plane really offers possible influence.
Jupiter and Saturn are 1° or less.
The suns SH has potentially given us a ssn peak in 2 subsequent cycles so it's not a hale cycle phenomena?
|
|
|
|
Post by ratty on Aug 5, 2024 21:33:10 GMT
Complicated - like Earth's atmosphere - but less chaotic perhaps?
|
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Aug 6, 2024 4:45:52 GMT
Complicated - like Earth's atmosphere - but less chaotic perhaps? Not sure Ratty, our atmosphere is really very thin. The sun is much larger and basically all atmosphere? |
|
|
|
Post by ratty on Aug 6, 2024 5:14:15 GMT
Complicated - like Earth's atmosphere - but less chaotic perhaps? Not sure Ratty, our atmosphere is really very thin. The sun is much larger and basically all atmosphere? Bad Ratty, not making myself clear. I meant the effect of the planet orbits on the Sun's atmosphere & barycenter. Complex relationships affect both the Sun and Earth. |
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Aug 7, 2024 10:36:36 GMT
One could almost think that there was some cyclical effect on the solar system barycentre, maybe caused by something like, I don't know, planetary orbital motion? I would not be surprised if this is the last gasp of SC25's solar maximum, but then the sun is notoriously keen on disproving our theories I agree on both points. There has to be something controlling the 11 year cycle and planetary orbital motion might be it. As I've mentioned before, I think the sun might only need a small "nudge" of evenly timed planetary energy to control the cycle. Supplemental: Lunar orbital patterns have been shown (seemingly) to effect the timing and progression of ENSO events. Does the strength of the solar cycle (at any given point within) have an effect on ENSO?
Even though El-Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a tremendous impact on global climate and society, its long-term forecast remains difficult. In this study, we discovered a statistically significant relationship between ENSO timing and the 18.6-year period lunar tidal cycle in the mature-phase (December–February) ENSO time-series during 1867–2015 and extending back to 1706 with proxy data. It was found that El-Niño tended to occur in the 1st, 10th, and 13th years after the maximum diurnal tide in the 18.6-yr cycle, and La-Niña tended to occur in the 3rd, 12th, and 16th years. These tendencies were also confirmed by corresponding sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-level pressure (SLP) distributions; particularly Pacific SST and SLP spatial patterns in the third La-Niña and the tenth El-Niño year well resemble those of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These findings contribute to understanding and forecasting long-term ENSO variability.
|
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Aug 9, 2024 18:36:36 GMT
New levels of activity for 25  |
|
|
|
Post by tyrbiter on Aug 9, 2024 23:00:23 GMT
New levels of activity for 25 The thing I don't follow (again) is how the SN has increased so much with hardly any change to the visible solar disc. Maybe an increase in tiny sunspots in existing groups, but it seems greater than my eyes are seeing. |
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Aug 10, 2024 6:54:00 GMT
New levels of activity for 25 The thing I don't follow (again) is how the SN has increased so much with hardly any change to the visible solar disc. Maybe an increase in tiny sunspots in existing groups, but it seems greater than my eyes are seeing. Pretty sure a sunspot gets a minimum ssn of 11, so many little ones add quite a bit. Admittedly about 10 years or more since I looked into it, however this thread may help www.aavso.org/how-count-sunspots |
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Aug 10, 2024 11:00:56 GMT
SNs are "what" has been counted over time as one proxy of solar radiation received by our planet. We know that spectrum-specific radiation inputs to our planet (think important ones like UV which drive heating in the tropical oceans) change across the solar cycle and between solar cycles. These are primary climate drivers ... but our data are scarce. What I've seen look a lot like sunspot distribution ... as a proxy for, say, energy inputs to the tropical oceans ... as modified by cloud formation (water vapor) in the troposphere and much else. SNs are not by themselves the important components. They are proxies for those inputs that actually drive our planet's heating system. AND how that heat is distributed across space and time through our hydrosphere and atmosphere.
"Cool periods" are not associated with multi-cycle energy downturns for nothing.
|
|
|
|
Post by tyrbiter on Aug 10, 2024 12:51:20 GMT
Today I see that the SN has reduced from 382 to 180 in a day, and again the latest solar images show little change in spot group size and shape. SF has reduced a bit, but not a huge amount.
It makes sense that the important data are displayed as smoothed curves, daily figures seem to be a bit variable as I've noted before.
|
|
