Solar Cycle 25

[tyrbiter]

Have a look at this article:

dailysceptic.org/2024/07/18/science-shock-met-office-continues-to-site-temperature-stations-in-junk-locations/

"Over eight in 10 of the 113 temperature measuring stations opened in the last 30 years by the U.K. Met Office have been deliberately or carelessly sited in junk Class 4 and 5 locations where unnatural heating errors of 2°C and 5°C respectively are possible. This shock revelation, obtained by a recent Freedom of Information request, must cast serious doubt on the ability of the Met Office to provide a true measurement of the U.K. air temperature, a statistic that is the bedrock of support for Net Zero. Over time, increasing urban encroachment has corrupted almost the entire network of 384 stations with 77.9% of the stations rated Class 4 and 5, but it beggars belief that new stations are being sited in such locations."

Almost nothing reported by the dim and craven meteorological establishment and their lickspittle supporters in the mainstream media is either accurate or believable.

There is no reason to accept anything that we are being told, nor to accept the use of weather maps where temperatures of 20 Celsius is now shown as orange when it would once have been green or perhaps pale yellow.

The people responsible for this debacle should hang their heads in shame.

[blustnmtn]

UHI is a huge, intentional component of the temperature record’s manipulation to “prove” the climate crisis narrative.

[birder]

Jul 19, 2024 18:20:00 GMT missouriboy said:

This is how the CET and the AMO look plotted together.  Remarkably close but not unexpected relationship.  I haven't updated my CET records for a while.  What is the CET doing?  Is it on vacation too?

www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx
This site has discussions on CET.

[nonentropic]

I agree Blus they intend to deceive.

Re CET and AMO the correlation is long term positive but short term reversals are very evident.

so maybe just symptoms of some other factor or factors.

My wife was watching the British Open Golf this morning the heatwaves in Scotland are not what I was expecting. Not so different from our winter weather here now.

[missouriboy]

Jul 20, 2024 17:04:46 GMT tyrbiter said:

Have a look at this article:

dailysceptic.org/2024/07/18/science-shock-met-office-continues-to-site-temperature-stations-in-junk-locations/

"Over eight in 10 of the 113 temperature measuring stations opened in the last 30 years by the U.K. Met Office have been deliberately or carelessly sited in junk Class 4 and 5 locations where unnatural heating errors of 2°C and 5°C respectively are possible. This shock revelation, obtained by a recent Freedom of Information request, must cast serious doubt on the ability of the Met Office to provide a true measurement of the U.K. air temperature, a statistic that is the bedrock of support for Net Zero. Over time, increasing urban encroachment has corrupted almost the entire network of 384 stations with 77.9% of the stations rated Class 4 and 5, but it beggars belief that new stations are being sited in such locations."

Almost nothing reported by the dim and craven meteorological establishment and their lickspittle supporters in the mainstream media is either accurate or believable.

There is no reason to accept anything that we are being told, nor to accept the use of weather maps where temperatures of 20 Celsius is now shown as orange when it would once have been green or perhaps pale yellow.

The people responsible for this debacle should hang their heads in shame.

Some data are sold by the pound.  Shit science too runs in cycles.  These people are too well funded.  Like most quaizi government agencies, they are fat and happy with their stipends, and want more.  They buy the narrative that brings them the most money.  Then pretend to be the saviors of the World.  The paradigm is leaking.  Some need to be weeded regularly.  I think that the North Country is gonna run a little colder for a while.  The urban thermometers can't hold off the chill indefinitely?  Or WE could just be wrong ... but I don't think so.  Who in Britain runs a competing network of thermometers?  Surely somebody.

[blustnmtn]

www.zerohedge.com/weather/first-traces-solar-cycle-26-detected-sun


“Scientists from the University of Birmingham in England have detected the "first rumblings"—or first indications—that the sun's next 11-year solar cycle, Cycle 26, will begin by the decade's end.

The current cycle, Cycle 25, has reached what scientists call a "solar maximum," when the sun's magnetic field flips and its poles swap places. This peak is known for elevated solar activity, including sunspots, flares, and coronal mass ejections.

Researchers from Birmingham recently presented the new data at the Royal Astronomical Society's National Astronomy Meeting in Hull. The data shows the first signs that the next solar cycle is beginning. “

[Sigurdur]

[duwayne]

The sunspot numbers have taken a big jump over the past 3 months leading to some speculation that Cycle 25 is going to be a big one.

"SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT A 23-YEAR HIGH: The sun is partying like it's 2001. That's the last time sunspot counts were as high as they are now. The monthly average sunspot number for July 2024 was 196.5, according to the Royal Observatory of Belgium's Solar Influences Data Analysis Center. This eclipses every month since Dec. 2001:

Solar Cycle 25 wasn't expected to be this strong. When it began in Dec. 2019, experts predicted it would be a weak cycle like its immediate predecessor Solar Cycle 24. If that forecast had panned out, Solar Cycle 25 would be one of the weakest solar cycles in a century.

Instead, Solar Cycle 25 has shot past Solar Cycle 24 and may be on pace to rival some of the stronger cycles of the 20th century. Already in May 2024 we have experienced a century-class geomagnetic storm with auroras sighted in the South Pacific, central America and south Africa.


The last time sunspot numbers were this high, the sun was on the verge of launching the Great Halloween Storms of 2003, which included the strongest X-ray solar flare ever recorded (X45) and a CME so powerful it was ultimately detected by the Voyager spacecraft at the edge of the solar system.

Is this Solar Max? The jury is still out. Sunspot numbers may continue to rise in the months ahead and, based on the behavior of previous cycles, we can confidently expect high solar activity for at least 2 to 3 more years. Stay tuned! "

spaceweather.com/

There is another possibility.  Cycle 25 is showing a temperary blip like Cycle 24 did a couple of times and will end up to be a little higher than Cycle 25 as predicted by Svalgaard.  You can see the Cycle 25 prediction shown in the chart above is about the same as Cycle 24.  Svalgaard predicted it to be higher, possibly as high as 138 (128 plus or minus 10).

[acidohm]

Uptick in activity is a sore point for me.....🙄

However, once I get over myself and look, NH is waning, all the recent uptick comes from SH activity! Indeed it has launched upwards!

[tyrbiter]

Having a look at the McIntosh, Leamon, Egeland 2023 prediction to +/- 1 sigma here:

helioforecast.space/solarcycle

it looks like the solar maximum is very close to the mid-months of 2024.

But yes, very interesting to see the Southern hemisphere taking off, it's similar to SC24 with the split peak, but these peaks are closer in time than that cycle.

[nonentropic]

Its the coincidence of both the Northern and Southern peaks so potentially the fall could be abrupt and in aggregate about the same as 24.

Again who knows but a sharp peak it is.

[missouriboy]

Coincidentially? ... notice how close the normalized sunspot progression is beginning same point in Cycle 11 and 23 ... and continuing.  SCs 24 and 25 have been directly compared size-wise to SCs 12 &13.  It continues?  Last call?

[tyrbiter]

One could almost think that there was some cyclical effect on the solar system barycentre, maybe caused by something like, I don't know, planetary orbital motion?

I would not be surprised if this is the last gasp of SC25's solar maximum, but then the sun is notoriously keen on disproving our theories

[duwayne]

Aug 3, 2024 23:51:35 GMT missouriboy said:

Coincidentially? ... notice how close the normalized sunspot progression is beginning same point in Cycle 11 and 23 ... and continuing.  SCs 24 and 25 have been directly compared size-wise to SCs 12 &13.  It continues?  Last call?

Is there any planetary cycle of around 130 years?

[duwayne]

Aug 3, 2024 21:38:11 GMT tyrbiter said:

Having a look at the McIntosh, Leamon, Egeland 2023 prediction to +/- 1 sigma here:

helioforecast.space/solarcycle

it looks like the solar maximum is very close to the mid-months of 2024.

But yes, very interesting to see the Southern hemisphere taking off, it's similar to SC24 with the split peak, but these peaks are closer in time than that cycle.

This is a graph taken from the website.  I'd like to see Svalgaard's prediction added to it and I'd like to see the actual updated smoothed sunspot number added as time passes.  So far, Svalgaard's is the best prediction.