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Post by missouriboy on Jun 24, 2021 18:12:04 GMT
And to put our namesake in perspective. Chart 1 is the long look since 1845. Chart 2 compares SC25 to the progression since Solar Cycle 22. Eighteen months in, and both geomagnetic activity and sunspots for Cycle 25 are tracking Cycle 24 fairly closely. No sign yet of that super cycle that the "young Turks" have forecast. Everybody is talking about the Terminator Event which should spike geomagnetic activity. But there is something different about this one. If you note the chart below, every identified terminator event (all five of them) starts in a narrow time frame separating the pre-cycle El Nino from the following La Nina. Theoretically, it is also associated with a "kickstart" of solar activity. In all five cases, this point has been between 17 an 25 months into the newly called cycle. Solar Cycle 25 has a called start date of December, 2019, approximately 18 months ago. BUT, the pre-cycle La Nina began in June, 2020 ... only 7 months into the cycle. AND they say that the Terminator Event has not occurred yet. You see where I'm going with this. In the previous five cycles, we have not seen a Terminator Event AFTER a La Nina. spaceweatherarchive.com/2021/06/11/the-termination-event/electroverse.net/the-termination-event/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-last-newsletter-total-posts-from-our-blog_1
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 24, 2021 20:25:46 GMT
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Post by blustnmtn on Jun 25, 2021 1:47:48 GMT
Well Mo’boy, I skimmed through the paper….I’m very ambivalent about this possible cycle 4b.
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 27, 2021 22:38:52 GMT
Well Mo’boy, I skimmed through the paper….I’m very ambivalent about this possible cycle 4b. Just a bit of trivia that solar scientists visit for intellectual entertainment. But as we watch regional weather patterns change (that may become climate if the last long enough) we wonder whether past regional patterns revisit norms that we see(?) unfolding in the pressure and weather patterns of the current second weak solar cycle (yes it's early). The hysterical press is pushing worst western megadrought in 1200 years all linked to CO2. Did they have factories and SUVs 1200 years ago? Wonder what the Dalton Minimum looked like out West. Did a similar "loopy" jet stream pattern dominate that period as well? nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com/category/drought/
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Post by Sigurdur on Jun 28, 2021 0:42:45 GMT
www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520286009/the-west-without-waterhe West without Water documents the tumultuous climate of the American West over twenty millennia, with tales of past droughts and deluges and predictions about the impacts of future climate change on water resources. Looking at the region’s current water crisis from the perspective of its climate history, the authors ask the central question of what is “normal” climate for the West, and whether the relatively benign climate of the past century will continue into the future. The West without Water merges climate and paleoclimate research from a wide variety of sources as it introduces readers to key discoveries in cracking the secrets of the region’s climatic past. It demonstrates that extended droughts and catastrophic floods have plagued the West with regularity over the past two millennia and recounts the most disastrous flood in the history of California and the West, which occurred in 1861–62. The authors show that, while the West may have temporarily buffered itself from such harsh climatic swings by creating artificial environments and human landscapes, our modern civilization may be ill-prepared for the future climate changes that are predicted to beset the region. They warn that it is time to face the realities of the past and prepare for a future in which fresh water may be less reliable.
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 28, 2021 1:08:31 GMT
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Post by flearider on Jun 29, 2021 15:57:05 GMT
more like the wandering magnetic poles ... you will prob find them in france
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Post by ratty on Jun 30, 2021 1:17:58 GMT
more like the wandering magnetic poles ... you will prob find them in france What is the dish called, Flea?
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 1, 2021 18:15:32 GMT
Mean monthly sunspot number and geomagnetic AP for June, 2021 is "right on" the SC24 progression. No further comments from the "Terminator Event" spokespeople. I see no current butterfly chart to check. SC24 took its first big jump in month 28 followed by the second in month 34. These would be equivalent to March and September 2022 in SC25.
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Post by blustnmtn on Jul 3, 2021 17:08:11 GMT
X1.5 flare today! Strongest flare for 25 so far…not aimed earthward.
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Post by acidohm on Jul 4, 2021 8:25:06 GMT
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Post by blustnmtn on Jul 16, 2021 16:26:25 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 24, 2021 2:31:53 GMT
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Post by blustnmtn on Jul 26, 2021 12:23:13 GMT
From "SolarHam": "If you were like me and hoping for a large active spotted region to turn into view off the east limb today, it appears that we are out of luck. The source of multiple large coronal mass ejections while on the farside of the Sun looks to be in an advanced state of decay. Magnetically speaking, there could still be chance for at least C-Class solar flares."
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 26, 2021 13:51:11 GMT
Spared for another month?
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