Solar Cycle 25

[glennkoks]

Sunspots are higher than forecast for the first time in a while. It could be just a short term deviation, the entire cycle just becoming a little more active earlier than forecast or maybe this cycle is going to be bigger and we are not in a Grand Solar Minimum. Time will tell.


www.spaceweather.com/images2021/03oct21/progression_strip.png

[blustnmtn]

I believe Leif Svalgaard has been steadfast in his prediction that cycle 25 would be slightly stronger than 24 based on the polar fields of 24:

lasp.colorado.edu/media/projects/SORCE/meetings/2018/Oral_Presentations/6_c_Svalgaard_Contri.pdf

[blustnmtn]

Incoming!


A moderate (G2) geomagnetic storm watch will be in effect beginning Monday, October 11th when a coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on Saturday is expected to sweep past Earth. Aurora sky watchers should be alert within the next 48-72 hours. The CME was the result of an M1.6 solar flare around AR 2882, now directly facing Earth.

[code]

Oct 4, 2021 16:16:37 GMT blustnmtn said:

I believe Leif Svalgaard has been steadfast in his prediction that cycle 25 would be slightly stronger than 24 based on the polar fields of 24:

lasp.colorado.edu/media/projects/SORCE/meetings/2018/Oral_Presentations/6_c_Svalgaard_Contri.pdf

Someone over at Harvard thinks it will be short lived. 

ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2019Ap%26SS.364...12S/abstract

[blustnmtn]

X-class flare could cause some lower latitude displays…if your not completely overcast🤬

www.space.com/sun-unleashes-major-x-class-solar-flare-october-2021

[Sigurdur]

www.innovationnewsnetwork.com/evidence-of-earths-auroras-causing-mesospheric-ozone-layer-depletion/14279/

[missouriboy]

Mean Daily Sunspots for October, 2021 dropped from the September value.  Still on track with SC24.  Big jumps during SC24 occurred in months 31 and 37.  We are now at month 26 of SC25.



And a comparison to Solar Cycles 5 and 6 of the Dalton Minimum.

[missouriboy]

Mean daily Monthly sunspot number declined from 38 in October to 35 for November.  Still right on the SC24 track.

[farmerpipes]

There is some suspicion that the 'official' sunspot count is being fudged down. Not sure if this is extending to the F10.7 flux numbers also, but in this post-truth world, nothing would surprise me. We have had more rain here and summer is yet to appear, Bz has remained negative, the Moon, Jupiter, Saturn and Venus have been in close proximity for a while also. In my muddled hypothesis, these things should result in an increasing susnpot count/increase in solar activity - certainly greater than the bizarrely low 13 today.

[acidohm]

Dec 9, 2021 2:49:26 GMT farmerpipes said:

There is some suspicion that the 'official' sunspot count is being fudged down. Not sure if this is extending to the F10.7 flux numbers also, but in this post-truth world, nothing would surprise me. We have had more rain here and summer is yet to appear, Bz has remained negative, the Moon, Jupiter, Saturn and Venus have been in close proximity for a while also. In my muddled hypothesis, these things should result in an increasing susnpot count/increase in solar activity - certainly greater than the bizarrely low 13 today.

Not sure how something that is measurable by many sources can be altered to fit a narrative.

[ratty]

Dec 9, 2021 21:35:43 GMT acidohm said:

Dec 9, 2021 2:49:26 GMT farmerpipes said:

There is some suspicion that the 'official' sunspot count is being fudged down. Not sure if this is extending to the F10.7 flux numbers also, but in this post-truth world, nothing would surprise me. We have had more rain here and summer is yet to appear, Bz has remained negative, the Moon, Jupiter, Saturn and Venus have been in close proximity for a while also. In my muddled hypothesis, these things should result in an increasing susnpot count/increase in solar activity - certainly greater than the bizarrely low 13 today.

Not sure how something that is measurable by many sources can be altered to fit a narrative.

Think Climategate?

[missouriboy]

Oct 17, 2021 3:17:10 GMT code said:

Oct 4, 2021 16:16:37 GMT blustnmtn said:

I believe Leif Svalgaard has been steadfast in his prediction that cycle 25 would be slightly stronger than 24 based on the polar fields of 24:

lasp.colorado.edu/media/projects/SORCE/meetings/2018/Oral_Presentations/6_c_Svalgaard_Contri.pdf

Someone over at Harvard thinks it will be short lived. 

ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2019Ap%26SS.364...12S/abstract

They were a year off the start point for SC25.

[farmerpipes]

Are there other sunspot counts published besides those shown on solen.info? I understand these come from/are collated by the USAF now after a change recently? F20.7 has traditionally been measured by Canada.

[blustnmtn]

Dec 14, 2021 10:31:31 GMT farmerpipes said:

Are there other sunspot counts published besides those shown on solen.info? I understand these come from/are collated by the USAF now after a change recently? F20.7 has traditionally been measured by Canada.

You may find the info here interesting:


spaceweather.com/glossary/sunspotnumber.html

[missouriboy]

SUNSPOT GENESIS: The sunspot number is rapidly increasing as a profusion of dark cores emerges in the sun's southern hemisphere. This 24-hour movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows sunspot genesis in action:


spaceweather.com/