Solar Cycle 25

[flearider]

Apr 7, 2023 8:38:23 GMT acidohm said:

Couple of things going on.

Firstly, activity has waned since a peak in solar flux back in January. We are now past the approximate relative time of the Northern Hemisphere peak of cycle 24.



Secondly whereas during cycle 24, the two hemispheres feel out of sync, as one peaked in activity the other troughed etc, leading to a double peak in activity. Cycle 25 continues to have both hemisphere having similar levels, acting in synergy.



I suggested a while back this looks like it'll be a single peak cycle with a peak around march. We'll see soon enough!

if it does peak this early it will be a short well very short cycle .. and we will see the extent of that over the next 5 yrs it will prob double peak again .. well lets hope or we are crashing into a glacial .. and everyone is fecked .... but is not what the elite are busy keeping us from seeing ? 7 billion dead over the next 30 yrs ?

[acidohm]

Maybe not that short Flea? 22 had peaked by now...



Further, and I wish I could find the split hemisphere ssn for cycles prior to 24....but the first peak for 24 was achieved with low SH SSN. Currently the total ssn is both hemisphere in tandem high points.

Which to my mind suggests there is less energy or flux (or whatever) currently available in the system.

If cycle 24 had both hemisphere in tandem, you could add the ssn from the seperate peaks and get a much larger peak similar to the single peak cycle 21. Its just the ssn are more spread out in 24 reducing the overall 'height'

[missouriboy]

Apr 7, 2023 8:38:23 GMT acidohm said:

Couple of things going on.

Firstly, activity has waned since a peak in solar flux back in January. We are now past the approximate relative time of the Northern Hemisphere peak of cycle 24.



Secondly whereas during cycle 24, the two hemispheres feel out of sync, as one peaked in activity the other troughed etc, leading to a double peak in activity. Cycle 25 continues to have both hemisphere having similar levels, acting in synergy.



I suggested a while back this looks like it'll be a single peak cycle with a peak around march. We'll see soon enough!

There is precedent for that.  Solar cycles 5 and 6 (Dalton Minimum) looked just like that.  But with a long minimum between the two.  Solar cycles 12 and 13 also looked like that.

[missouriboy]

Solar cycles 2 and 3 also looked like that.  I have the files.  If you'd like, I can send them to you.  Open Office spreadsheet.

[duwayne]

Acidohm, your thoughts on the importance of the timing of the 2 hemispheres on the maximum sunspot number make sense.  This leads to the question that has been raised in the past as to whether the peak number should be focused on so heavily.  If we are looking for the effect of sunspots on earth's temperatures, shouldn't we be looking at cumulative sunspots over a cycle rather than the peak? 

Also, it makes one question Svalgaard's use of the maximum sunspot number and the maximum polar field number both of which are subject to the shape of the individual curve shapes of the 2 series.  Yet, Svalgaard's correlation worked well for Cycle 24 when essentially all other predictions failed.  Is it possible that the peak energy is more important than the total energy in whatever happens to translate polar field flux to sunspot flux?

As you say, we'll see how this all works out before too long.

[flearider]

Apr 7, 2023 19:50:47 GMT acidohm said:

Maybe not that short Flea? 22 had peaked by now...



Further, and I wish I could find the split hemisphere ssn for cycles prior to 24....but the first peak for 24 was achieved with low SH SSN. Currently the total ssn is both hemisphere in tandem high points.

Which to my mind suggests there is less energy or flux (or whatever) currently available in the system.

If cycle 24 had both hemisphere in tandem, you could add the ssn from the seperate peaks and get a much larger peak similar to the single peak cycle 21. Its just the ssn are more spread out in 24 reducing the overall 'height'

i'm really hoping it gets to 45 months and levels .. and drops slowly .. whats the thinking of only getting 110 months ? or less .. with ss 26 being the start of the end .. ?

[ratty]

From Nicola Scarfetta ....

Overview of the Spectral Coherence between Planetary Resonances and Solar and Climate Oscillations

Abstract

The complex dynamics of solar activity appear to be characterized by a number of oscillations ranging from monthly to multimillennial timescales, the most well-known of which being the 11-year Schwabe sunspot cycle. Solar oscillations are important because they also characterize the oscillations observed in Earth’s climate and can thus be used to explain and forecast climate changes. Thus, it is important to investigate the physical origin of solar oscillations. There appear to be two possibilities: either the oscillations in solar activity are exclusively controlled by internal solar dynamo mechanisms, or the solar dynamo is partially synchronized to planetary frequencies by planetary forcings. The latter concept has recently gained support from a growing amount of evidence. In this work, we provide an overview of the many empirical facts that would support a planetary hypothesis of the variability of solar activity and emphasize their importance for climate research. We show that the frequencies produced by the complex interactions of all of the planets are coherent with the major solar activity and climate cycles, from monthly to multimillennial timescales, including the well-known Schwabe 11-year solar cycle. We provide some persuasive theoretical and empirical support for the planetary hypothesis of solar and climate variability.

[duwayne]

From a January 2023 study by some of our US government "experts" (McIntosh, et al).

"...we are in a position to finalize the amplitude estimate for SC25 at 184 (13-month smoothed sunspot number).......we can place bounds on SC25 maximum timing between the last quarter of 2023 and last quarter of 2024"

www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fspas.2023.1050523/full

[missouriboy]

I think they are going to be disappointed.

[nonentropic]

but only a year or so to peak if that is a peak

[missouriboy]

Apr 12, 2023 18:37:38 GMT nonentropic said:

but only a year or so to peak if that is a peak

If it replicates most past low solar cycles, there will be two low solar peaks.  We have probably hit the first.  If there is not a second peak, which has happened in a small number of low solar cycles, then it would be all downhill from here ... and Acid will be right.    Until then father sun continues to let us know he is still there.  The associated fires are of interest.

[neilhamp]

Sunspot numbers for April looks likely to be 100

[missouriboy]

Apr 7, 2023 19:50:47 GMT acidohm said:

Maybe not that short Flea? 22 had peaked by now...



Further, and I wish I could find the split hemisphere ssn for cycles prior to 24....but the first peak for 24 was achieved with low SH SSN. Currently the total ssn is both hemisphere in tandem high points.

Which to my mind suggests there is less energy or flux (or whatever) currently available in the system.

If cycle 24 had both hemisphere in tandem, you could add the ssn from the seperate peaks and get a much larger peak similar to the single peak cycle 21. Its just the ssn are more spread out in 24 reducing the overall 'height'

Acid.  I think I may have found the hemispheric sunspot numbers.  Am tearing it apart to see.

arxiv.org/abs/2107.00553

Hemispheric sunspot numbers 1874--2020
Astrid M. Veronig, Shantanu Jain, Tatiana Podladchikova, Werner Poetzi, Frederic Clette

Results. We provide a continuous data series and catalogue of daily, monthly mean, and 13-month smoothed monthly mean HSNs for the time range 1874–2020 –fully covering solar cycles 12 to 24– that are consistent with the newly calibrated ISN (Clette et al., 2014). Validation of the reconstructed HSNs against the direct data available since 1945 reveals a high level of consistency, with Pearson correlation coefficients of r = 0.94 (0.97) for the daily (monthly mean) data. The cumulative hemispheric asymmetries for cycles 12–24 give a mean value of 16%, with no obvious pattern in north–south predominance over the cycle evolution. The strongest asymmetry occurs for cycle no. 19, in which the northern hemisphere shows a cumulated predominance of 42%. The phase shift between the peaks of solar activity in the two hemispheres may be up to 28 months, with a mean absolute value over cycles 12–24 of 16.8 months. The phase shifts reveal an overall asymmetry of the northern hemisphere reaching its cycle maximum earlier (in 10 out of 13 cases), with a mean signed phase shift of −7.6 months. Relating the ISN and HSN peak growth rates during the cycle rise phase with the cycle amplitude reveals higher correlations when considering the two hemispheres individually, with r ≈ 0.9.

Conclusions. Our findings provide further evidence that to some degree the solar cycle evolves independently in the two hemispheres, and demonstrate that empirical solar cycle prediction methods can be improved by investigating the solar cycle dynamics in terms of the HSN evolution.

It now seems to be on SILSO.  www.sidc.be/silso/

[duwayne]

Apr 25, 2023 11:33:43 GMT missouriboy said:

Apr 7, 2023 19:50:47 GMT acidohm said:

Maybe not that short Flea? 22 had peaked by now...



Further, and I wish I could find the split hemisphere ssn for cycles prior to 24....but the first peak for 24 was achieved with low SH SSN. Currently the total ssn is both hemisphere in tandem high points.

Which to my mind suggests there is less energy or flux (or whatever) currently available in the system.

If cycle 24 had both hemisphere in tandem, you could add the ssn from the seperate peaks and get a much larger peak similar to the single peak cycle 21. Its just the ssn are more spread out in 24 reducing the overall 'height'

Acid.  I think I may have found the hemispheric sunspot numbers.  Am tearing it apart to see.

arxiv.org/abs/2107.00553

Hemispheric sunspot numbers 1874--2020
Astrid M. Veronig, Shantanu Jain, Tatiana Podladchikova, Werner Poetzi, Frederic Clette

Results. We provide a continuous data series and catalogue of daily, monthly mean, and 13-month smoothed monthly mean HSNs for the time range 1874–2020 –fully covering solar cycles 12 to 24– that are consistent with the newly calibrated ISN (Clette et al., 2014). Validation of the reconstructed HSNs against the direct data available since 1945 reveals a high level of consistency, with Pearson correlation coefficients of r = 0.94 (0.97) for the daily (monthly mean) data. The cumulative hemispheric asymmetries for cycles 12–24 give a mean value of 16%, with no obvious pattern in north–south predominance over the cycle evolution. The strongest asymmetry occurs for cycle no. 19, in which the northern hemisphere shows a cumulated predominance of 42%. The phase shift between the peaks of solar activity in the two hemispheres may be up to 28 months, with a mean absolute value over cycles 12–24 of 16.8 months. The phase shifts reveal an overall asymmetry of the northern hemisphere reaching its cycle maximum earlier (in 10 out of 13 cases), with a mean signed phase shift of −7.6 months. Relating the ISN and HSN peak growth rates during the cycle rise phase with the cycle amplitude reveals higher correlations when considering the two hemispheres individually, with r ≈ 0.9.

Conclusions. Our findings provide further evidence that to some degree the solar cycle evolves independently in the two hemispheres, and demonstrate that empirical solar cycle prediction methods can be improved by investigating the solar cycle dynamics in terms of the HSN evolution.

It now seems to be on SILSO.  www.sidc.be/silso/

Are there double peaks in the smoothed sunspot values in individual hemispheres?  The chart you are probably making will show the answer to the question.

[missouriboy]

Have to run to an appointment.  Here is the first cut by hemisphere.