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Post by nonentropic on Feb 10, 2023 2:52:19 GMT
also no discussion about frequency content which in my mind trumps the W/M2.
Clearly this is a proxy type of analysis but quite interesting.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 10, 2023 19:58:33 GMT
Observations from Nasa’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) have shown that a chunk of our parent star effectively broke away and formed a vortex above its north pole.  ?
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Post by Jane in the centre of England on Feb 10, 2023 20:18:41 GMT
Observations from Nasa’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) have shown that a chunk of our parent star effectively broke away and formed a vortex above its north pole. ?
The links in the article are from an article from April last year in a free UK newspaper |
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 11, 2023 0:58:39 GMT
Observations from Nasa’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) have shown that a chunk of our parent star effectively broke away and formed a vortex above its north pole. ?
The links in the article are from an article from April last year in a free UK newspaper Apparently bad journalism too. I guess we shouldn't be surprised.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 15, 2023 2:18:20 GMT
The last half of this Electroverse post discusses a new sunspot cycle forecast.
Scientists Use Artificial Intelligence To Forecast Sunspot Cycles
From memory only, looks a lot like Zarkova.
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Post by flearider on Feb 15, 2023 9:23:53 GMT
The last half of this Electroverse post discusses a new sunspot cycle forecast.
Scientists Use Artificial Intelligence To Forecast Sunspot Cycles
From memory only, looks a lot like Zarkova.
with such a short time scale to go on does the ai have enough to produce an expectable response ? or have the weather wizards filled in the blanks ? from 2035 ish those peaks do look a bit high ? |
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 15, 2023 14:38:36 GMT
Zharkova constructed an even longer one. www.nature.com/articles/srep15689 If "we" survive SC25 and SC26 the New Cult will be focused on pumping MORE CO2 into our atmosphere.
 “The longest direct observation of solar activity is the 400-year sunspot-number series, which depicts a dramatic contrast between the almost spotless Maunder and Dalton minima, andthe period of very high activity in the most recent 5 cycles [1950s – 2000s], prior to cycle 24. … The records show that solar activity in the current cycle 24 is much lower than in the previous three cycles 21–23 revealing more than a two-year minimum period between cycles 23 and 24. This reduced activity in cycle 24 was very surprising because the previous five cycles were extremely active and sunspot productive forming the Modern Maximum. … We predict correctly many features from the past, such as: 1) an increase in solar activity during the Medieval Warm period; 2) a clear decrease in the activity during the Little Ice Age, the Maunder Minimum and the Dalton Minimum; 3) an increase in solar activity during a modern maximum in 20th century.”
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Post by duwayne on Feb 15, 2023 18:48:03 GMT
The last half of this Electroverse post discusses a new sunspot cycle forecast.
Scientists Use Artificial Intelligence To Forecast Sunspot Cycles
From memory only, looks a lot like Zarkova.
These charts come from Willie Soon's August 2021 paper. The maximum SSN prediction for Cycle 25 was 95. That’s looking like a significant under-prediction.
Is it possible their forecast for the next few cycles is also way too low? Would it be useful to have a way of reducing the sun’s heating effect on the earth if we are facing the possibility of ultrahigh solar cycles ahead?
Why not run an experiment now to see if we could do something when needed in the future in the unlikely event we are facing a catastrophe? Why limit our alternatives for preventing a hypothetical future disaster to just the elimination of fossil fuels now?
Maybe we don't need to stop using fossil fuels if we have another cheap and safe answer to any hypothetical overheating of the earth.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 15, 2023 21:45:48 GMT
The last half of this Electroverse post discusses a new sunspot cycle forecast.
Scientists Use Artificial Intelligence To Forecast Sunspot Cycles
From memory only, looks a lot like Zarkova.
These charts come from Willie Soon's August 2021 paper. The maximum SSN prediction for Cycle 25 was 95. That’s looking like a significant under-prediction.
Is it possible their forecast for the next few cycles is also way too low? Would it be useful to have a way of reducing the sun’s heating effect on the earth if we are facing the possibility of ultrahigh solar cycles ahead?
Why not run an experiment now to see if we could do something when needed in the future in the unlikely event we are facing a catastrophe? Why limit our alternatives for preventing a hypothetical future disaster to just the elimination of fossil fuels now?
Maybe we don't need to stop using fossil fuels if we have another cheap and safe answer to any hypothetical overheating of the earth.
As a species, I think that we have shown ourselves to be perfectly capable of dealing with the higher general range of solar activity that our star has thrown our way over the last few millennia. This includes our most recent grand maximum. If anything, it is the potential vulnerability of our young high-tech society that may need some engineering attention thrown its way as protection against rare but potentially catastrophic solar events. Ya wanna see catastrophy? Fry our power grid. Our grandfathers didn't have to worry about that. Mine were pretty self-sufficient. As a (very luke) luke-warmer, I see no engineering-level proof that we are going to succumb to, or have been seriously adversely affected by, the "relatively small" quantities of CO2 we have thrown into the atmosphere over the last 200 years. Some farmers might say that it's been a benefit.
Given our politicians' and plutocrats' propensity to waste our money on themselves, I see NO reason to give them another excuse to replace one set of failed climate models with another. We already know that volcanic eruptions can cool the planet. We should be more concerned about how we are going to warm it when it once again cools itself naturally ... which it has done many times. And given our Government's recent track record ... why would I trust them to start with. If we're gonna be done in, it won't be by a slightly higher solar cycle or a little extra plant food.
“America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves.” (Abraham Lincoln)
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Post by ratty on Feb 15, 2023 22:38:16 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Feb 27, 2023 5:51:26 GMT
Dammit....was in bed asleep 😡
There are pictures from penzance Cornwall too, but just a hint of colour on long exposures down there.
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Post by blustnmtn on Mar 20, 2023 20:25:18 GMT
From spaceweather: SOLAR TORNADO: For much of the past week, astronomers have been watching a colossal "solar tornado" dance near the sun's North Pole. "This thing was twisting and growing for 3 days," says Apollo Lasky of Naperville, Illinois, who made the following movie using images from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory  |
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Post by Sigurdur on Mar 27, 2023 21:36:51 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 4, 2023 23:14:22 GMT
End of March, 2023. Solar Cycle 25 13-Month trend is running slightly higher than SC24, and together look very similar to SC12 in the Centennial Minimum.
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Post by acidohm on Apr 7, 2023 8:38:23 GMT
Couple of things going on. Firstly, activity has waned since a peak in solar flux back in January. We are now past the approximate relative time of the Northern Hemisphere peak of cycle 24.  Secondly whereas during cycle 24, the two hemispheres feel out of sync, as one peaked in activity the other troughed etc, leading to a double peak in activity. Cycle 25 continues to have both hemisphere having similar levels, acting in synergy.  I suggested a while back this looks like it'll be a single peak cycle with a peak around march. We'll see soon enough! |
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