Astromet
Level 3 Rank
Meanwhile, here in the real world...
Posts: 169
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Post by Astromet on Apr 4, 2022 0:29:23 GMT
Astromet, self reflection is a good thing. Would you say that the forecast you put out last fall for the winter panned out? Yes, and winter will continue in April 2002 by the way. By the way, I published my winter 2021/2022 forecast last 'summer' - not last fall. As for 'self-reflection,' don't' make rude comments like that. I am a grown man. My big sister died several weeks before Christmas 2021, and I 'self-reflect' on that. I've been an astrometeorologist a long time; and forecasted a great many events; so don't presume to insult my intelligence either. I was born in the daytime Glenn, but it wasn't yesterday. |
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Astromet
Level 3 Rank
Meanwhile, here in the real world...
Posts: 169
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Post by Astromet on Apr 4, 2022 2:32:47 GMT
Try not to believe every man-made climate change article you read Glenn. There's plenty of their 'alarmist' rants out there being presented as 'fact,' when far from it. Moreover, the Sierra snowpack is not bad, and all that snow has to melt, which will be good for the Central California Valley early on into the mid-spring and summer seasons of 2022. Those freaking out about water in the west have got a lot to learn about the micro-climate they've chosen to inhabit. Despite California turning increasing into a quasi-Mediterranean climate, with periods of semi-desert atmospherics, there will be months, even years of drought in regions of the west, including California. I forecasted the time and length of the 2011-2017 drought there. Go back to Solarcycle24 boards and find it yourself. A mediterranean climate or dry summer climate is characterized by dry summers and mild, wet winters, but many people, including those who play with weather models, should not surprise or trouble people, but it does, because they think that droughts are unnatural events. But they are not. On the contrary, droughts are very much a very natural part of the history of California’s climate. I have records going back before industrial era began. Do you know that California’s Medieval period droughts lasted 220 years (AD 892-1112) and 141 years (AD 1209-1350.) Even the last four droughts I've called over the last 40-50 years. have lasted up to 50 years, with the most recent being 2011 to 2017, which I also forecasted. Droughts are quite common in global cooling climates, or mini-ice ages, and we are seeing that emerge. Droughts, followed by torrential rains, floods, along with radically shifting temperatures, high winds, and under the power of a quiescent Sun - the changed jet streams. All this is happening now, so don't allow the 'man-made global warming' alarmists within NOAA, NWS, the universities, in media (weather reporting, not forecasting) and among the man-made climate change types to confuse you and muck up what is obviously clear to any professions. Make no doubt, the Grand Minimum of the Sun is underway with solar cycle #25, and it is a sign of things to come with solar cycle #26 in the 2030s, as well. The shift is here, and will be doing so during the mid-2020s into the maximum of solar cycle#25 to a temporary period of warmer weather before another, deeper decline, starts in the late 2020s and into the 2030s when the Sun's magnetic reversal really gets underway.  You'll hear plenty about 'man-made global warming' during solar cycle#25's maximum, but all the alarmist rants are nothing more than hot air. So, anyone who is going to talk about forecasting the climate had better know what they are talking about before commenting and to make sure that they are checking the statistics and news of actual weather and climate 'outside' of their own residence and short-attention spans, and get a wider view of what is happening here in the real world. In 2021, over 2,400 cold temperature records were broken or tied in the United States. The numbers for winter 2021/2022 haven't come in as yet, but the weather that has taken place since winter began on November 5, 2021 into April 2022 has been significant and continues to confirm that the weather of global cooling is here: from torrential rains an floods in both hemispheres, to record snowfall to extreme shifts in temperature, gusting winds and severe storms. |
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Post by glennkoks on Apr 4, 2022 10:19:54 GMT
Astromet, self reflection is a good thing. Would you say that the forecast you put out last fall for the winter panned out? Yes, and winter will continue in April 2002 by the way. By the way, I published my winter 2021/2022 forecast last 'summer' - not last fall. As for 'self-reflection,' don't' make rude comments like that. I am a grown man. My big sister died several weeks before Christmas 2021, and I 'self-reflect' on that. I've been an astrometeorologist a long time; and forecasted a great many events; so don't presume to insult my intelligence either. I was born in the daytime Glenn, but it wasn't yesterday. Astro, It was a simple question, no insult meant. I am sorry to here about your sister. |
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Post by walnut on Apr 5, 2022 0:12:59 GMT
Well, the average unadjusted surface temperature of earth is .74 F below the 30 year mean, so what would satisfy us? temperature.global/The concensus around here seemed to be that this data is legitimate.
It was a very average winter in Tulsa, OK USA.
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Post by glennkoks on Apr 5, 2022 13:19:33 GMT
Temperature: It was a very average winter in SE Texas as well as most of the South. November was warm, December was hot, January was cold, February and March were cool. Overall it was very average. Had about 6 freezes which is average for us. Precipitation: Well below average which is typical of a La Nina winter for my part of the world. It's been dry as almost all of the western US is now in moderate drought or worse. droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx |
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 5, 2022 13:26:17 GMT
Well, the average unadjusted surface temperature of earth is .74 F below the 30 year mean, so what would satisfy us? temperature.global/The concensus around here seemed to be that this data is legitimate. It was a very average winter in Tulsa, OK USA.
Thirty years of mean.  |
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Post by Molon Labe on Apr 5, 2022 18:01:13 GMT
In the context of these last few posts, I found this data interesting: Sunspot counts have now exceeded predictions for 18 straight months. The monthly value at the end of March was more than twice the forecast, and the highest in nearly 7 years. The "official forecast" comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel, a group of scientists representing NOAA, NASA and International Space Environmental Services (ISES). The Panel predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would peak in July 2025 as a relatively weak cycle, similar in magnitude to its predecessor Solar Cycle 24. Instead, Solar Cycle 25 is shaping up to be stronger. source: spaceweather.com/ |
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 5, 2022 19:45:47 GMT
In the context of these last few posts, I found this data interesting: Sunspot counts have now exceeded predictions for 18 straight months. The monthly value at the end of March was more than twice the forecast, and the highest in nearly 7 years. The "official forecast" comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel, a group of scientists representing NOAA, NASA and International Space Environmental Services (ISES). The Panel predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would peak in July 2025 as a relatively weak cycle, similar in magnitude to its predecessor Solar Cycle 24. Instead, Solar Cycle 25 is shaping up to be stronger. source: spaceweather.com/SC25 is still looking on track to be lower than SC20 that gave us in the Midwest some cold winters. Not Dalton maybe, unless SC26 is also low. We may well have less southerly subtropical umpff and more northerly. Europe seems to be looking at a cool April. War, Covid and bad economy are suppressing the tourist trade a bit. Marta and I may cash in some airline mileage and settle into the Lakes Region north of Milan and follow the Alps from Como to Bergamo and Verona. Where various Indo-European Celts settled in waves long before the Romans. Herders gone metalurgists, gone full agro. If we can wrangle whatever tests may be required, we'll hop over to Porto, Portugal before exiting through Tuscany and Rome. Be interesting to see how 'sick of it" the Italians are. |
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Post by Molon Labe on Apr 5, 2022 19:55:55 GMT
Sounds like an awesome trip. Have a blast!
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 5, 2022 20:18:44 GMT
Sounds like an awesome trip. Have a blast! Thanks. I'll tell Mr Putin not to.  |
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Post by walnut on Apr 5, 2022 20:38:10 GMT
In the context of these last few posts, I found this data interesting: Sunspot counts have now exceeded predictions for 18 straight months. The monthly value at the end of March was more than twice the forecast, and the highest in nearly 7 years. The "official forecast" comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel, a group of scientists representing NOAA, NASA and International Space Environmental Services (ISES). The Panel predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would peak in July 2025 as a relatively weak cycle, similar in magnitude to its predecessor Solar Cycle 24. Instead, Solar Cycle 25 is shaping up to be stronger. source: spaceweather.com/SC25 is still looking on track to be lower than SC20 that gave us in the Midwest some cold winters. Not Dalton maybe, unless SC26 is also low. We may well have less southerly subtropical umpff and more northerly. Europe seems to be looking at a cool April. War, Covid and bad economy are suppressing the tourist trade a bit. Marta and I may cash in some airline mileage and settle into the Lakes Region north of Milan and follow the Alps from Como to Bergamo and Verona. Where various Indo-European Celts settled in waves long before the Romans. Herders gone metalurgists, gone full agro. If we can wrangle whatever tests may be required, we'll hop over to Porto, Portugal before exiting through Tuscany and Rome. Be interesting to see how 'sick of it" the Italians are. I'd like to take that trip myself! |
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Post by acidohm on Apr 5, 2022 20:48:58 GMT
In the context of these last few posts, I found this data interesting: Sunspot counts have now exceeded predictions for 18 straight months. The monthly value at the end of March was more than twice the forecast, and the highest in nearly 7 years. The "official forecast" comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel, a group of scientists representing NOAA, NASA and International Space Environmental Services (ISES). The Panel predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would peak in July 2025 as a relatively weak cycle, similar in magnitude to its predecessor Solar Cycle 24. Instead, Solar Cycle 25 is shaping up to be stronger. source: spaceweather.com/SC25 is still looking on track to be lower than SC20 that gave us in the Midwest some cold winters. Not Dalton maybe, unless SC26 is also low. We may well have less southerly subtropical umpff and more northerly. Europe seems to be looking at a cool April. War, Covid and bad economy are suppressing the tourist trade a bit. Marta and I may cash in some airline mileage and settle into the Lakes Region north of Milan and follow the Alps from Como to Bergamo and Verona. Where various Indo-European Celts settled in waves long before the Romans. Herders gone metalurgists, gone full agro. If we can wrangle whatever tests may be required, we'll hop over to Porto, Portugal before exiting through Tuscany and Rome. Be interesting to see how 'sick of it" the Italians are. Recommend Lisbon, the old town by the harbour with its tiled houses is quite beautiful. |
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Post by glennkoks on Apr 6, 2022 1:37:57 GMT
In the context of these last few posts, I found this data interesting: Sunspot counts have now exceeded predictions for 18 straight months. The monthly value at the end of March was more than twice the forecast, and the highest in nearly 7 years. The "official forecast" comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel, a group of scientists representing NOAA, NASA and International Space Environmental Services (ISES). The Panel predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would peak in July 2025 as a relatively weak cycle, similar in magnitude to its predecessor Solar Cycle 24. Instead, Solar Cycle 25 is shaping up to be stronger. source: spaceweather.com/I noticed that as well. Which brings up interesting questions. Is the entire "Grand Solar Minimum" off the table? To early to tell? Or is this cycle just starting a little earlier than forecast? It's not exactly an 11 year cycle there is variability. |
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Post by flearider on Apr 6, 2022 4:43:48 GMT
In the context of these last few posts, I found this data interesting: Sunspot counts have now exceeded predictions for 18 straight months. The monthly value at the end of March was more than twice the forecast, and the highest in nearly 7 years. The "official forecast" comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel, a group of scientists representing NOAA, NASA and International Space Environmental Services (ISES). The Panel predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would peak in July 2025 as a relatively weak cycle, similar in magnitude to its predecessor Solar Cycle 24. Instead, Solar Cycle 25 is shaping up to be stronger. source: spaceweather.com/I noticed that as well. Which brings up interesting questions. Is the entire "Grand Solar Minimum" off the table? To early to tell? Or is this cycle just starting a little earlier than forecast? It's not exactly an 11 year cycle there is variability. i did say it would peek early and drop off .. one last gasp? |
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Post by code on Apr 6, 2022 14:38:35 GMT
Astromet, self reflection is a good thing. Would you say that the forecast you put out last fall for the winter panned out? Yes, and winter will continue in April 2002 by the way. By the way, I published my winter 2021/2022 forecast last 'summer' - not last fall. As for 'self-reflection,' don't' make rude comments like that. I am a grown man. My big sister died several weeks before Christmas 2021, and I 'self-reflect' on that. I've been an astrometeorologist a long time; and forecasted a great many events; so don't presume to insult my intelligence either. I was born in the daytime Glenn, but it wasn't yesterday. Condolences on the passing of your sister Theo. |
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