This board has been quiet as of late. I wonder why. Is it because Astro's forecast didn't exactly pan out? Looks like Astro's forecast didn't start until Jan as December was the warmest since 1950. January he nailed as it was the coldest since 2014 and the second coldest in the last decade. Feb was also cold but don't know if it broke any records. March was mostly variable. And now we have more variability for April.
I think he also stated there would basically be no spring as spring would feel like winter and we would basically be going from winter directly into summer. I don't think his forecast was much better than Farmer's Almanac or Old Farmer's Almanac or AccuWeather's winter forecast. That's just my opinion and not fact but I am entitled to it. I have to give him credit as I know he works hard on these forecasts. He seemed to nail the 2013-2014 winter forecast a year in advance which was amazing. Also the California drought/Southwest drought is not going away as he predicted. "California is going into spring with a minuscule amount of snow in the Sierra Nevada, leaving the state in a third year of extreme drought and with depleted reservoirs to draw on during what’s likely to be another hot, parched summer.
The mountain snowpack, as measured by snow sensors across the Sierras, now stands at just 38% of the long-term average."
www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-04-01/california-faces-dismal-snowpack-in-sierra-nevada
With this I would expect fire season to start in June this year and it might be one of the worst ones ever.
Here is my forecast, take it with a grain of salt as we should with Astro's forecasts. Although I'm sure he is way more qualified than me to make forecasts. This scenario is just an extreme possibility. NOAA recently came out and stated for La Nina to continue through summer and maybe beyond.
snowbrains.com/la-nina-continue-in-to-summer-and-beyond/My guess, and this is a stretch, is that the corn crop gets cooked but we would need a lack of precip during the growing months of June and July and also the presence of heat waves. Natural gas may also respond by moving up considering that storage is about 15% below the five year avg but what matters is the supply demand balance when June rolls around which could be completely different from now. Take all this with a grain of salt as it's a very thin and stretched idea and I'm no forecaster like Astro. But when the 3rd week of May comes and you have all orange in the corn belt on NOAA's 8-14 day temperature forecast which forecasts out to the first week of June and you have all brown in the corn belt on their precipitation 8-14 day map then look out.
Enjoy the spring. Get your gardens ready. That's what I'll be doing.
Cheers.
Excuse me Simon? Grain of salt?
Lookit, I don't know how old you are, but you certainly have not been covering the weather and climate over this winter in North America, or throughout the northern hemisphere. That's for sure.
I am a grown man, a professional astrometeorologist, and have done this for a long time. So, when you post on this board, please do it as a 'grown up' - that's an adult.
The adults Solar cycle 25 also work for a living, and raise families, and it's been an active and long winter (as I predicted) and that winter is not over yet. We have another full month to go before it will complete itself by May 5, 2022.
Anyhow, try not guessing, or making 'grain of salt' comments on my forecast. Dude, you haven't done the calculations, or made any accurate advanced forecasts yet that I know.
So, you have no right until you can prove that - yourself - on a consistent basis.
'Hits and misses' are one thing, but that is also how one learns to succeed in life, that is, if one tends to observe, be willing to comment les, and listen more, and of course, putting in the hard work over a span of time to then be able to perhaps 'guess' much less, and to actually forecast accurately more?
Also, can you please stop posting those tired NOAA guessing graphs? they take up too much space and are piecemeal, giving no understanding of what the causes are, of say, the drought. And lookit, I forecasted the last serious California drought and published that back in the last decade. I forecasted the 2012 Midwest drought, then the long California drought that began in 2011 and also forecasted the end of the drought to come in 2017. And also the last El Nina and La Nina (2009-2011) and did that four years in advance.
I've covered NOAA since the late 1980s dude, and they continue to fail at making seasonal forecasts (3 months) and more. If you are to use them to then 'guess', then, okay, but that is YOU doing the guessing.
However, please do not compare your guesses on my Astromet forecasts, thanks.
And if you want to learn how to successfully forecast weather/climate astronomically, then feel free to ask me, okay? But don't make silly comments like you did here when you said: "Is it because Astro's forecast didn't exactly pan out?"
What does that mean? Have you complied statistical analysis of my Astromet forecast? Have you counted up all the temperature, precipitation, storms, and wind records? Have you checked on La Nina without depending on NOAA, which has never predicted the start, or the end of any ENSO in its entire history?
Look, try not to be heuristic-playing with models and then using me in your forecasts. There is no comparison to be made, unless you are willing to compile - with actual weather events that have taken place, here in the physical world, with a advanced climate forecast. I published my Astromet Climate and La Nina Forecast some 8 months ago and covered a lot of ground.
Has NOAA done that? Have you done that?
I don't think so, and certainly not at this juncture. Every year, I hear from some who know nothing, or very little of how weather and climate forecasting is done but play with it as a child would heuristically with computer models, but no understanding of what is the cause of climate and weather worldwide as well as over one's own head And, I have to spend time cajoling them read and study things they do not know, and often, still won't know to be able to do.
But these are the same people who sit in suspended animation making silly comments and muse their egos on things that do not exist. That is what children do. So, don't comment on my threads if you are going to waste my time with bullshit. I am a grown man, an astromet and very busy forecaster.
Know that the Full Moon storm that I forecasted in August 2012 for October/early November 2012 (later called 'Superstorm Sandy') had over a dozen computer models that could not even predict the storm a month in advance, nor the path of Sandy a week to 3 days in advance.
Also know that NOAA's predictions are based on some
90 computer models that deviate from the actual trends of surface and troposphere temperatures that do not even match legacy trends or astronomic ones for that matter. In short, all those computer models are being played with by people who continue to be unlikely to accurately predict even future trends because they fail to know and understand the causes of all weather and climate events.
Go over the entire winter season, like a professional (not an amatuer who is still learning.) What you will see is exactly what I have been describing for a long time on the weather of global cooling, with the start of Solar Cycle #25 (which I also predicted its date of start) as we head gradually into a strong Grand Solar Minimum that will attain its peak strength in 2029-2030, just as the world enters the second phase of global cooling that I predicted (2029-2041.)
From drought/wildfire to gusting winds followed by heavy torrential rain to floods; to extremes (cold and hot) of temperatures, to stronger storms: how many times, and for how many years and decades do I have keep painting the picture for you before it settles into your skulls? This IS the climate of GLOBAL COOLING - and it is going to get worse for years to come (especially by the early 2030s.)
Meanwhile, my Astromet forecast continues as I said the North American winter would not be over until May 5, 2022 and that had another full month to go.
So, I remind you that winter 2022 is NOT over. We continue to have strong storms; heavy precipitation, high wind, and snow into April. Then there are the heavy rains and floods ahead that will extend into May 2022. All this is about to take place.
Here in the real world, winter continues into what already is spring. There is plenty of winter events to go around:
I forecasted this, and it continues:
From Accuweather on the Week of April 3-7:"Snow developing across the northern Rockies is forecast to stream eastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest from early Tuesday through Wednesday night. The highest accumulations are likely across the elevated terrain of Montana and Idaho to Wyoming and northern Colorado, as well as near the United States-Canada border.
"Across the Upper Midwest, cold air in place across the Arrowhead of Minnesota could cause precipitation in that area to remain snow through the event," explained Bauer. General accumulations from 1 to 3 inches are possible across North Dakota and northern Minnesota by Wednesday morning."
* Mighty storm to lash the B.C. coast with impactful rain, snow, winds ->>
news.yahoo.com/mighty-storm-lash-b-c-122750899.html* Winter storm warning in effect for eastern Cascades, with heavy snow falling Sunday ->> www.yakimaherald.com/news/local/winter-storm-warning-in-effect-for-eastern-cascades-with-heavy-snow-falling-sunday/article_58d2bb4f-8008-59d1-a9e9-a250818dec18.html* Eight people rescued from ice floe in Lake Michigan bay ->> www.mlive.com/news/2022/03/8-people-rescued-from-ice-floe-in-lake-michigan-bay.htm* Winter is not done with us: ->> www.timesunion.com/news/article/Winter-is-not-done-with-us-What-areas-will-get-17054496.php* Snow mold is affecting lawns this spring ->> sports.yahoo.com/dakota-gardener-snow-mold-affecting-110029497.html
