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Post by missouriboy on Feb 27, 2022 0:33:37 GMT
The SST anomaly for the North Atlantic (45-65N) is heading towards a -0.6C decline over a period of 1 month. Cimate4you chart at bottom shows a similar drop in winter 2014-15, from which temps at 59N did not totally recover. No data since August 2020. Are we seeing another step decline? And, if so, what is the source/cause? Beaufort gyre?
when the Beaufort gyre go's you will know about it .. imagine north west territory temps in texas ... I'm saving up for a south-facing solar cave with a greenhouse. Whatchu gonna do?
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Post by flearider on Feb 27, 2022 7:10:55 GMT
when the Beaufort gyre go's you will know about it .. imagine north west territory temps in texas ... I'm saving up for a south-facing solar cave with a greenhouse. Whatchu gonna do? prob move to Portugal..
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 28, 2022 0:13:07 GMT
I'm saving up for a south-facing solar cave with a greenhouse. Whatchu gonna do? prob move to Portugal.. Nice country from what little I've seen. My brother swears he is moving to Porto. He likes it. I asked him if he is going to beat Putin there.
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 2, 2022 18:39:48 GMT
The North Atlantic SSTAs have dropped by -0.6C over the last 3 months while the Mid-latitude Atlantic remains stable. The AMO includes both these areas and has not yet shown a decline.
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Post by blustnmtn on Mar 14, 2022 13:03:06 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 14, 2022 15:45:38 GMT
And as Joe Bastardi has postulated, atmospheric water vapor is a fundamental component of atmospheric warming ... and the recent (SC21-23) net solar warming of the oceans have increased ocean temperatures, and thus, water vapor in the atmosphere ... along with the associated (phase change) energy. Under low solar conditions, we can expect that the atmosphere will cool (largely because the ocean is cooling) and excess water vapor will return to its liquid phase in the ocean as heat is shed to space. Increasing cloudiness resulting from increasing water vapor, cosmic rays and a cooling atmosphere complicates this basic equation. But the relatively "tiny" amount of CO2 in the atmosphere (relative to water vapor) cannot significantly retard this fundamental readjustment.
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Post by flearider on Mar 14, 2022 18:13:02 GMT
And as Joe Bastardi has postulated, atmospheric water vapor is a fundamental component of atmospheric warming ... and the recent (SC21-23) net solar warming of the oceans have increased ocean temperatures, and thus, water vapor in the atmosphere ... along with the associated (phase change) energy. Under low solar conditions, we can expect that the atmosphere will cool (largely because the ocean is cooling) and excess water vapor will return to its liquid phase in the ocean as heat is shed to space. Increasing cloudiness resulting from increasing water vapor, cosmic rays and a cooling atmosphere complicates this basic equation. But the relatively "tiny" amount of CO2 in the atmosphere (relative to water vapor) cannot significantly retard this fundamental readjustment. co2 can't and has never been able to do jack shit .. low solar means increased cosmic rays which in turn means more water vapor which results in cooling as it has done for ever .. now we just need the gyre to break .. and putin will be the last of our worries .... lol
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Post by douglavers on Mar 14, 2022 21:03:43 GMT
Sadly, our planetary magnetic field is also declining rapidly.
Hard to follow, as it looks like all figures are now being censored.
However, this will lead to increasing cosmic radiation, more impressive auroras, and increasing cloud [cf Svensmark].
And our planet is/will cool.
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Post by nonentropic on Mar 15, 2022 2:36:55 GMT
That is a very interesting point Doug.
The magnetic field of the earth is currently on an excursion.
We know the magnetic field of the earth is the shield that protects us from a lot of high energy particles and directs them to the poles. where these particles are focused must be important as per Svenmark and others.
Consider what would happen if the flux were to be able to get out of the polar region and in the Feral or worse the Hadley cells.
So in addition to the Solar magnetic flux variability we have the moving Earth magnetic flux is anything written about this??
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Post by flearider on Mar 15, 2022 19:21:19 GMT
That is a very interesting point Doug. The magnetic field of the earth is currently on an excursion. We know the magnetic field of the earth is the shield that protects us from a lot of high energy particles and directs them to the poles. where these particles are focused must be important as per Svenmark and others. Consider what would happen if the flux were to be able to get out of the polar region and in the Feral or worse the Hadley cells. So in addition to the Solar magnetic flux variability we have the moving Earth magnetic flux is anything written about this?? EXCURSION .. no it's heading for a flip ... what happens from here is gods knows it's a 75% chance of a wipe out .. another 10 yrs at the most .. shits hitting the fan .. but maybe 10% lives on ? i'm way to old and will be drinking 15 yr old rum .. with a smile and shit in my pants
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 30, 2022 16:09:34 GMT
The mid-latitude N. Atlantic (25-45N) continues to drift down.
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Post by missouriboy on May 4, 2022 1:26:47 GMT
NAO values between Iceland and Gibraltar AND Iceland and the Azores remain at historically negative values.
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Post by ratty on May 4, 2022 8:02:57 GMT
NAO values between Iceland and Gibraltar AND Iceland and the Azores remain at historically negative values. What's your prediction? Here's one I saved from some time ago: OK. Based on the historical symmetry of the ENSO observations and a forecast that SC25 will be at or below SC24, I predict the upcoming La Nina will rival those on the front end of SC23 and SC24 dropping to the -1.5 C range and lasting through ~June 2022 or later. Based on past data showing UAH global lower troposphere temperature anomalies tracking ENSO (with a slight lag), I predict that the UAH global temperature anomaly will drop to at least -0.25 C by sometime in 2021. This would be comparable to temps reached in 1999. 2008 and 2011. This could be helped along by a declining AMO. If I get close, I will consider it a victory. If I'm wrong I'm willing to eat a goat. I like goat.
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Post by missouriboy on May 4, 2022 15:24:33 GMT
NAO values between Iceland and Gibraltar AND Iceland and the Azores remain at historically negative values. What's your prediction? Here's one I saved from some time ago: OK. Based on the historical symmetry of the ENSO observations and a forecast that SC25 will be at or below SC24, I predict the upcoming La Nina will rival those on the front end of SC23 and SC24 dropping to the -1.5 C range and lasting through ~June 2022 or later. Based on past data showing UAH global lower troposphere temperature anomalies tracking ENSO (with a slight lag), I predict that the UAH global temperature anomaly will drop to at least -0.25 C by sometime in 2021. This would be comparable to temps reached in 1999. 2008 and 2011. This could be helped along by a declining AMO. If I get close, I will consider it a victory. If I'm wrong I'm willing to eat a goat. I like goat. I have the goat waiting in the freezer. The 2021 date looks like it will become 2022. The -0.25 C value is still doable. So do I eat the goat now? Or later? I think I'm closer than Michael Mann.
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Post by ratty on May 4, 2022 16:20:36 GMT
What's your prediction? Here's one I saved from some time ago: OK. Based on the historical symmetry of the ENSO observations and a forecast that SC25 will be at or below SC24, I predict the upcoming La Nina will rival those on the front end of SC23 and SC24 dropping to the -1.5 C range and lasting through ~June 2022 or later. Based on past data showing UAH global lower troposphere temperature anomalies tracking ENSO (with a slight lag), I predict that the UAH global temperature anomaly will drop to at least -0.25 C by sometime in 2021. This would be comparable to temps reached in 1999. 2008 and 2011. This could be helped along by a declining AMO. If I get close, I will consider it a victory. If I'm wrong I'm willing to eat a goat. I like goat. I have the goat waiting in the freezer. The 2021 date looks like it will become 2022. The -0.25 C value is still doable. So do I eat the goat now? Or later? I think I'm closer than Michael Mann. Keep the goat.
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