CLIMATE FORECAST:
WINTER 2016-2017
'Prelude to Global Cooling'
Forecast by
Theodore White, astrometeorologist.sci
In the midst of summer in the northern hemisphere, few people are thinking about winter; however, as a long-range forecaster I have been.
What is on the doorstep of the world is a prelude to the soon-to-be new climate regime of global cooling that I've forecasted.
Few people are taking notice of how the rainy season is starting early. There has been weather events featuring torrential rains and wildfires in various regions, along with drought and floods.
I forecasted last year that this solar year would be dry and hot in the first half of 2016, then wet and warm in the second half of the year, which we are entering now.
What follows is happening is a prelude to global cooling.
This week, two almanacs will hit newsstands with their long-range forecasts for winter 2016-2017 in the northern hemisphere.
The 1792 Old Farmer’s Almanac, published in Dublin, New Hampshire and the 1818 Farmers’ Almanac, published in Lewiston, Maine are competing this year.
What most people need to understand about astronomic forecasting is that since the dawn of humanity on Earth the climate and weather have been forecasted by astrologers.
Astronomic forecasting is also known as Astrometeorology, whose methods are to calculate the variables of the Sun, Moon and planets relative to the Earth to ascertain the climate and weather over regions worldwide.
The contrasts in the almanacs' respective winter forecast this year are easy to see; however, what in my view is the most important thing to gain out of the weather of 2017 is the fact that it is the final year of the transition from solar-forced global warming to the arrival of solar-forced global cooling.
California's drought, which I forecasted several years ago to be a multi-year drought, will continue in 2017 until finally releasing its grip slightly in 2018, return to dry conditions in 2019, then the drought will see relief in the form of El Nino by the year 2020.
Central and Southern California along with the Sierra Nevada range have had five straight drier-than-normal winters.
According to the California Department of Food and Agriculture, the state’s 76,400 farms and ranches received about $54 billion for their output in 2014, the most recent year for which a full crop-year report is available.
That represented 5.1 percent increase over 2013. According to state food and ag officials, California is the leading state in cash farm receipts, with combined commodities representing nearly 13 percent of the U.S. total.
To date, more than 83 percent of California is in drought as of this week. Last year at this time more than 97 percent of California was in drought.
It has been the driest five consecutive years for southern and central California in recorded history.
Forecasting if the Sierra Nevada will have a wet or dry winter is big business for California’s $50 billion agriculture industry, the state Department of Water Resources, hundreds of water agencies up and down the state and more than 39 million residents statewide.
This winter will see wetter conditions for the West and Pacific Northwest, but it will also be the air that will usher in cooler temperatures, along with increasing clouds, that will help California and the Sierra Nevada make some recovery from the multiyear drought.
The only way to forecast seasonal weather and long-range climate is by astronomic methods as the climate and meteorological sciences were invented by astrologers.
Our Earth lives in space and that is where the Sun, Moon and planets are as well. The Sun governs our climate and the planets modulate the weather we receive in regions around the world.
There are many variables to handle, as all celestial bodies are various rates of motion, and the weather responds - in motion as well.
Weather is the atmospheric conditions people experience at any point in time.
And the Climate is the average of weather conditions in a region over time.
It is electromagnetics that are the causes of climate change and its weather as the Sun's activity dominates the Earth's atmosphere.
The practice of Astrometeorology, a centuries-old scientific method to accurately forecast climate and weather, is the only way to forecast long-range climate and its resultant weather on a global scale.
But for conventional forecasters, long-term forecasting remains very challenging because in order to accomplish that feat, it must be done by astronomic means.
Over the last several years there were plenty of forecasts and media talk about a ‘monster' and 'super' El Niño.
But it did not happen.
'Talk of La Niña?'
Despite conventional forecasters' years of erroneous bad calls on El Niño there will not be a true El Niño until mid-2019, and it will dominate the year 2020 as well.
Then, as the warm El Niño peters out in 2020, it will be followed by a powerfully cold La Niña in 2021-2022 - the first under the new climate regime of global cooling.
La Niña ushers in cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures to develop in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
But the 2017 edition of the 1818 Farmers’ Almanac says that “El Niño is gone, with a "50/50 chance for La Niña to develop by the fall.
The 2017 edition of the 1792 Farmers' Almanac contrasts this by saying that “winter temperatures and rainfall will be below normal” in California and the rest of the Southwest with below-normal mountain snows."
WINTER 2016-2017:
'Prelude to Global Cooling'
The late summer into fall 2016 will see the early arrival of the rainy season, especially in the South and Southeastern U.S., where tropical-like storms and torrential rains result in flooding.
These weather events are not because of 'man-made global warming,' as that does not exist.
Rather, it is happening because of the transition of climate due to the activity of the Sun.
Altering wind stream patterns are also a part of the climate transition to global cooling with the onset of increased floods and droughts.
Since the year 2010, there's been increasingly stronger and deeper penetrations of polar air sweeping south into Canada and the United States.
Other regions of the world have also seen very cold air penetrate further south of mid-latitudes, even to regions of the tropics.
This will continue as the climate change to global cooling matures.
It is best to think insulation for homes, businesses and individuals because of the intrusion of frigid polar vortex air into the middle latitudes and to a neighborhood near you.
My estimate for the upcoming winter is that it starts early this year.
Winter will begin on November 12, 2016 and will last more or less to April 29, 2017 due to planetary signatures which show a late spring with temperatures not really warming up until May 2017.
Winter 2016-17 will be colder-and-wetter than normal, especially from the Midwest to the East, including the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states.
Although meteorological winter begins December 1, 2016, expect to see snow earlier-than-normal in the Plains states, the Rocky Mountains, into the Midwest and to the Eastern U.S. coast.
December 2016 will be colder-than normal and feel like mid-winter for two-thirds of the nation; while the Southern and western states will experience cooler than normal temperatures, with dry conditions persisting in California.
There will be colder-than-normal and wetter then normal snowfall for the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic that will also extend into the Southeastern United States.
The key to preparing for the coming winter will be to know that it will be the 'air temperatures' that will be very cold.
Expect abrupt changes in temperatures over the course of the winter and do not be swayed by sudden appearances of brief warmer temperatures in February and March 2017 because winter will not be done just yet.
Insulation against the colder-than-normal winter air, and the dampness of its precipitation of freezing rain, snow and ice will be the headlines throughout the winter season.
In 2017, there will be abrupt and odd temperature disparities, with temperatures plunging as much as 25 to 30 degrees over a course of hours in some regions, especially in the Midwest, Rocky Mountains and South.
The spring of 2017 will 'appear' to begin early in late February/early March, but will turn out to be colder and wetter than normal - making winter feel longer.
The months of April and May 2017 will be wetter than normal, with temperatures below normal for the northeast and Mid-Atlantic and slightly above normal in the South and Southeastern U.S.
My general advice for the coming winter is to treat it as a small taste, a prelude if you will, to the arrival of global cooling, which will begin in late 2017 and be completed fully by the year 2020 when the Sun enters its quiescent phase.
The electromagnetic waves of the Sun and its total solar irradiance changes over time.
There have been decadal spans of time when the Sun has been very active magnetically, with many sunspots.
Those periods are referred to as the Sun's Grand Maxima.
But there are also periods when the Sun's magnetic resonance becomes weak with fewer or no sunspots at all.
These periods are called Solar Grand Minima.
A quiescent Sun in its Grand Minima corresponds to the dark, cold and wet gloomy times called the 'Little Ice Ages.'
For most of the 20th century, our Sun has been in various states of a Solar Grand Maxima.
But that began to end in July 2000 when the Sun had six (6) massive explosions in rapid succession.
Each produced solar proton events with a proton flux greater than 10,000 pfu @ >10 MeV.
They took place in July 2000, November 2000, September 2001.
There were two in November 2001, and then a final one in October 2003 when aurora was seen by tens of millions of people in Canada and the United States.
Since 2003, there hasn’t been any of that magnitude as the Sun has had one of the weakest solar minimums since the AP Index was first recorded in 1932.
Our present solar cycle number #24 has been weak. It hasn't been weak enough to be termed a Grand Minima, but it has come close.
'THE GREAT MAN-MADE GLOBAL WARMING BAMBOOZLE'
About two weeks ago, I was browsing and read this very fitting comment that essentially confirms what I have been saying for a long time.
It began with this quote from the journalist H.L. Mencken which is what the 'man-made global warming' mania is all about from start to finish:
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins - all of them imaginary.”
Earth’s carbon cycle contains 46,713 Gt (E15 gr) /- 850 Gt (/- 1.8%) of stores and reservoirs with a couple hundred fluxes Gt/y (+/- ??) flowing among those reservoirs.
Additional CO2 leads to greater plant growth:
Mankind’s gross contribution over 260 years was 555 Gt or 1.2%. (IPCC AR5 Fig 6.1) Mankind’s net contribution, 240 Gt or 0.53%, (dry labbed by IPCC to make the numbers work) to this bubbling, churning caldron of carbon/carbon dioxide is 4 Gt/y +/- 96%. (IPCC AR5 Table 6.1)
Seems relatively trivial to me. IPCC et. al. says natural variations can’t explain the increase in CO2. With these tiny percentages and high levels of uncertainty how would anybody even know?
Mankind’s modelled additional atmospheric CO2 power flux (W/m^2, watt is power, energy over time) between 1750 and 2011, 261 years, is 2 W/m^2 of radiative forcing. (IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.5)
Incoming solar RF is 340 W/m^2, albedo reflects 100 W/m^2 (/- 30 & can’t be part of the 333) 160 W/m^2 reaches the surface (can’t be part of the 333), latent heat from the water cycle’s evaporation is 88 W/m2 (/- 8). Mankind’s 2 W/m^2 contribution is obviously trivial - lost in the natural fluctuations.
One popular GHE theory power flux balance (“Atmospheric Moisture…. Trenberth et. al. 2011 Figure 10) has a spontaneous perpetual loop (333 W/m^2) flowing from cold to hot violating three fundamental thermodynamic laws.
1.) Spontaneous energy out of nowhere, 2.) perpetual loop w/o work, 3.) cold to hot w/o work, 4.) doesn’t matter because what’s in the system stays in the system)
Physics must be optional for 'climate' science.
What really counts is the net W/m^2 balance at ToA which 7 out of 8 re-analyses included in the above cited paper concluded the atmosphere was cooling, not warming (+/- 12.3 W/m^2).
Of course Dr. Trenberth says they are wrong because their cooling results are not confirmed by his predicted warming, which hasn’t happened for twenty years.
All of the net TOA imbalances are not tenable and all except CFSR imply a cooling of the planet that clearly has not occurred.”)
Every year the pause/hiatus/lull/stasis continues (IPCC AR5 Box TS.3) IPCC’s atmospheric and ocean general circulation models diverge further from reality."
'CONFIRMATIONS OF MY GLOBAL COOLING FORECAST'
After my most recent post on my global cooling forecast, Natural News writer Amy Goodrich, posted this:
"While a significant number of people and world leaders are concerned about global warming, a renowned solar physicist has come up with a theory that is entirely contradictory.
Professor Valentina Zharkova, a solar physicist at the UK's Northumbria University, claims that the earth is in fact not warming up, but cooling down.
She has been conducting extensive research on sunspots – ominously cooler regions of the sun's surface characterized by intense magnetic activity – pivotal in influencing climate patterns.
According to some researchers, the current increase in global temperatures is a result of increased sunspot activity rather than the emission of greenhouse gasses.
Earth is facing the prospect of a 'mini ice age.'
According to Professor Zharkova, sunspot activity is likely to fall – similarly to what took place during the Maunder Minimum or "The Little Ice Age."
This will culminate in drastic drops in temperature and more winter-like conditions. Zharkova observed that solar activity had a significant influence on past climate trends.
During the Little Ice Age that lasted close to two centuries, sunspot activity was low, and temperatures plunged throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Winters were more pronounced, and the summers were unconvincing at best.
"We will see it from 2020 to 2053, Zharkova says, "When the three next cycles will see a vertically reduced magnetic field of the Sun.
"Basically what happens is these two waves, they separate into the opposite hemispheres and they will not be interacting with each other, which means that resulting magnetic field will drop dramatically nearly to zero.
"And this will be a similar conditions like in Maunder Minimum," she said.
These claims have earned Professor Zharkova a fair share of backers and detractors alike.
Scientists who have staked their reputations on global warming and the greenhouse effect as the key players in climate change, have been openly hostile to Zharkova and her theory, downplaying or ignoring all of her research and findings.
While the alarmists have actively tried to silence Zharkova, the Royal Astronomical Society has pushed for the two camps to settle it by encouraging communication.
Winter is coming.
Zharkova has a fair share of high-profile supporters. The most reputable of these include Australia's David Evans, meteorologist Paul Dorian of Vencore Weather, and perhaps most surprisingly, scientists of the Potsdam Institute, who have been known to lean towards the global warming ideology.
Dorian has predicted a solar minimum during which the planet will experience the weakest solar cycle in over one hundred years.
Doctor Evans, known for the Notch-Delay solar theory, has so much belief in the cooling theory that he is willing to put his money where his mouth is by helping raise money for a hedge fund.
News has emerged following some research aided by NASA and confirmed by USGS satellite imagery, that Antarctica may be growing in size and mass, which has been supported by cooling patterns over the past two decades.
This may indicate that the earth is cooling, and further supports the findings of Zharkova.
Perhaps the world should come around to the idea that we had better all start preparing ourselves for a very long winter."
'IT'S ALREADY TOO LATE'
It's all fine and good in the present to slowly come to terms with the arrival of global cooling, but for well over a decade I have been sounding the alarm with my climate and weather forecasts.
As a forecaster, my only concern is forecasting it right so that advance preparation can be made.
Our only power when it comes to the weather and climate is in forecasting and preparation - that's it.
Yet ideologists and buffoons have been claiming that it is not the Sun, but rather 'man' that is the cause of climate change. To them the 'effects' are 'causes.'
On the street that is called having it 'ass-backward.'
They have been in clear and full denial of the laws of physics and thermodynamics and as proof of that fact they still cannot forecast climate, much less 'seasonal weather' in advance.
The entire goal of those pursuing the man-made global warming political agenda was to create the great illusion that our present weather is abnormal and so unnatural, because they say it is caused by human activity.
The term 'Lysenkoism' is used to describe the manipulation and distortion of the scientific process as a way to reach a predetermined conclusion dictated by an ideological bias which is often directly related to social and political objectives.
The anthropogenic global warming crowd has been living in a dreamworld for over two straight decades and clearly hasn't a clue as to how the Earth's climate actually functions in reality.
These 'alarmists' on 'man-made global warming' should and will be held fully responsible for the disasters to come from the arrival of global cooling which they missed 10,000 percent.
That means not only did they 'not' see it coming, but didn't want anyone else to see it coming either because their ideology and sentiments simply will not accept it.
That is a 'mental health' issue, but has nothing to do with climate and weather forecasting or the laws of physics that is the foundation and principles which dictate the functioning of the Earth's climate.
It is not a wonder why they are trying to force a solar physicist to 'change' her confirmation findings on global cooling or to 'silence' her as if somehow global cooling will not arrive, as it surely shall.
And while the so-called 'two camps' argue over ideology, the fact of the matter is that Mother Nature doesn't give a rat's ass what the argument is - as Mother Nature does what she will when she will.
The facts are these:
Since last great proton event of the Sun in 2003, the Earth has been gradually cooling down; despite all the propaganda of 'man-made global warming' and a constantly warming Earth being the danger.
Physicists like Zharkova have been following my climate forecasts on the coming of global cooling since the last decade, much of it under the radar as they finally began to take note of the fact that our Sun is heading straight into a quiescent phase.
And for 21 years, the great majority of government, public and private money has been thrown at climate research that propagated 'man-made global warming,' despite the fact that the Earth can never become a classic greenhouse.
The laws of thermodynamics and physics make it literally impossible for human beings to cause the climate to change on a planetary scale.
Only the Sun's activity and condition can do that.
Playing with expensive climate models that cannot forecast seasonal weather, much less long-range climate and weather, the careerist climatologists and their paymasters have been living high on the hog for years at the expense of everyone else.
All the while they have not produced one single - not one - accurate forecast despite being flush with money, media attention and ever growing smirks and egos.
Meanwhile, little to no money has been directed to forecasting, which would have saved tens of billions of dollars in the losses to come from the disasters of floods, droughts and colder temperatures that the climate change to global cooling brings about.
So, it is already too late to prepare for global cooling. Anyone who reads this still has time to do it on a individual and group level, but as for national infrastructures the fact is that well over two decades has been wasted in belief of 'man-made global warming,' and it will have dire consequences. You can bet your life on it.
What will happen when the Sun officially enters solar cycle #25 in the year 2020 is that the Sun's heliosphere will weaken.
All the planets in the solar system essentially lives within the Sun's heliosphere - including the Earth.
When the Sun weakens into its quiescent phase, and its heliosphere weakens, it allows galactic cosmic rays to penetrate into our solar system. These rays increase cloudiness and we will see a great increase in clouds - worldwide.
During previous Little Ice Ages, the increase of low level clouds caused a general cooling globally; along with radical changes of the Earth's jet streams that drive cold air from upper latitudes deep into the mid-latitude regions.
This accounts for the warming in the Arctic region - not 'man-made global warming,' which is the view of a ignorant child.
What is going to happen is that the upper atmosphere of the Earth warms as the Arctic circle essentially is heading south and will bring along all that polar air along with it to middle-latitudes of the Earth, where most of the population of our planet lives.
These weather conditions are nothing to take lightly because not only do they usher in colder temperatures but shift wind stream patterns that cause great floods and droughts.
Also affected is the cycle of the seasons which become highly irregular and can lead to major losses of food crops.
The change in wind pattern streams also alters the development of massive storms and hurricanes.
In the past, the weather of Little Ice Ages caused very bad crop yields and famines that led to major epidemics. It has caused mass migrations, political upheavals, civil unrest and wars.
Global cooling will dominate for 36 years from late 2017 to 2053 and will create havoc for many regions worldwide for decades to come.
~ Theodore White, astromet.sci
