|
|
Post by acidohm on Nov 16, 2021 21:08:42 GMT
Animation to end of gfs run.
This shows classic Greenland blocking persisting. If this verifies this would be a 2010 re-run, pretty much precisely at the same point in this solar cycle as the last.
2010 also occurred without an associated SSW
|
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Nov 16, 2021 21:56:10 GMT
Another 2010 comparison, I think it was the last time both Europe and US had simultaneously cold intrusions southward.
Quite a rare occurance, it's usually one or the other.
|
|
|
|
Post by ratty on Nov 17, 2021 1:00:23 GMT
And now it's negative. The recorded global temperature for previous years: 2015 average: 0.98 °F (0.54 °C) below normal 2016 average: 0.48 °F (0.27 °C) below normal 2017 average: 0.47 °F (0.26 °C) below normal 2018 average: 1.33 °F (0.74 °C) below normal 2019 average: 0.65 °F (0.36 °C) below normal 2020 average: 0.00 °F (0.00 °C) below normal I asked temperature.global what their base comparison period was: |
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Nov 17, 2021 2:28:08 GMT
And now it's negative. The recorded global temperature for previous years: 2015 average: 0.98 °F (0.54 °C) below normal 2016 average: 0.48 °F (0.27 °C) below normal 2017 average: 0.47 °F (0.26 °C) below normal 2018 average: 1.33 °F (0.74 °C) below normal 2019 average: 0.65 °F (0.36 °C) below normal 2020 average: 0.00 °F (0.00 °C) below normal I asked temperature.global what their base comparison period was: I think that date range would be even more damning against the AGW case.
I didn't see the little mail-to icon down at the bottom of their page. I'll ask them about their data. I'm hoping that it is unadjusted data. |
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Nov 17, 2021 13:30:23 GMT
OK, I got an answer.
------------------
Hi Chris!
The QC processor removes "garbage". Sometimes there will be bad values
(e.g. -450) or incorrect temperatures (e.g. 12 degrees in Florida in
July).
We do check for outliers, mostly to remove incorrect temperatures as noted
above. We won't remove outliers if for example two adjacent stations have
a large gap. But it will get flagged for investigation, and we look into
why the gap exists. Sometimes it's valid and other times not. We will
remove invalid stations if they consistently have incorrect temperature.
One NOAA station was 8 degrees higher than its neighbors for years because
the NWS didn't/wouldn't calibrate it.
I hope this info helps!
TG
|
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Nov 17, 2021 18:08:27 GMT
Try to get that same level of help out of the government agency.
|
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Nov 17, 2021 18:57:33 GMT
That forecast in 7 days northerly makes it to Africa!! The evolution of this setup is now within certainty, the bits are coming together...  |
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Nov 18, 2021 2:29:59 GMT
OK, I got an answer. ------------------ Hi Chris! The QC processor removes "garbage". Sometimes there will be bad values (e.g. -450) or incorrect temperatures (e.g. 12 degrees in Florida in July). We do check for outliers, mostly to remove incorrect temperatures as noted above. We won't remove outliers if for example two adjacent stations have a large gap. But it will get flagged for investigation, and we look into why the gap exists. Sometimes it's valid and other times not. We will remove invalid stations if they consistently have incorrect temperature. One NOAA station was 8 degrees higher than its neighbors for years because the NWS didn't/wouldn't calibrate it. I hope this info helps! TG I then sort of asked him to stick his neck out and make an interpretation statement-
"Looking at the graph, there was a general warming trend in 2019 and 2020,
and somewhat neutral since then. But still on average, below or near
normal temperatures."
FWIW, that much was fairly apparent, but I appreciate it.
|
|
|
|
Post by ratty on Nov 18, 2021 4:36:37 GMT
OK, I got an answer. ------------------ Hi Chris! The QC processor removes "garbage". Sometimes there will be bad values (e.g. -450) or incorrect temperatures (e.g. 12 degrees in Florida in July). We do check for outliers, mostly to remove incorrect temperatures as noted above. We won't remove outliers if for example two adjacent stations have a large gap. But it will get flagged for investigation, and we look into why the gap exists. Sometimes it's valid and other times not. We will remove invalid stations if they consistently have incorrect temperature. One NOAA station was 8 degrees higher than its neighbors for years because the NWS didn't/wouldn't calibrate it. I hope this info helps! TG I then sort of asked him to stick his neck out and make an interpretation statement-
"Looking at the graph, there was a general warming trend in 2019 and 2020,
and somewhat neutral since then. But still on average, below or near
normal temperatures."
FWIW, that much was fairly apparent, but I appreciate it.
Good response. |
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Nov 18, 2021 5:11:08 GMT
So, earth's average surface temperature has not been rising over the last 5 years. temperature.global
|
|
|
|
Post by duwayne on Nov 18, 2021 17:15:01 GMT
[[Global Temperatures are dropping rapidly. I am rather surprised how fast! temperature.global/And now it's negative. The recorded global temperature for previous years: 2015 average: 0.98 °F (0.54 °C) below normal 2016 average: 0.48 °F (0.27 °C) below normal 2017 average: 0.47 °F (0.26 °C) below normal 2018 average: 1.33 °F (0.74 °C) below normal 2019 average: 0.65 °F (0.36 °C) below normal 2020 average: 0.00 °F (0.00 °C) below normal]] I don't understand comment. Figures would appear to suggest temperatures are rising? The temperature "slope" calculation from 2015-2020 using the numbers above is +0.06C per year or +6C per century. The UAH temperatures warmed at +0.02C per year over the same period or 1/3 the rate.
I'd be interested in how they calculate the anomalies. Are the base period numbers from the same stations?
I'd hate to see people get roped in because they like to see negative anomalies. And then find out later that the base numbers are giving a misleading result. And as time passes, the warming turns out to be overstated.
|
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Nov 18, 2021 19:20:54 GMT
I asked temperature.global what their base comparison period was: I think that date range would be even more damning against the AGW case.
I didn't see the little mail-to icon down at the bottom of their page. I'll ask them about their data. I'm hoping that it is unadjusted data. I compared the global.temperature annualized temperature anomalies to annualized UAH Lower Troposphere temperature anomalies. They track pretty well. Annualized ENSO direction leads both. Expect downward trends in UAH and global.temp anomalies. The Lord giveth. The Lord taketh away. Get over it.  Would it be surprising that surface anomalies would show greater variance than Lower Troposphere measurements (higher highs and lower lows)? Soon we will have 2021. Expect a banger?  |
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Nov 19, 2021 2:38:47 GMT
[[Global Temperatures are dropping rapidly. I am rather surprised how fast! temperature.global/And now it's negative. The recorded global temperature for previous years: 2015 average: 0.98 °F (0.54 °C) below normal 2016 average: 0.48 °F (0.27 °C) below normal 2017 average: 0.47 °F (0.26 °C) below normal 2018 average: 1.33 °F (0.74 °C) below normal 2019 average: 0.65 °F (0.36 °C) below normal 2020 average: 0.00 °F (0.00 °C) below normal]] I don't understand comment. Figures would appear to suggest temperatures are rising? The temperature "slope" calculation from 2015-2020 using the numbers above is +0.06C per year or +6C per century. The UAH temperatures warmed at +0.02C per year over the same period or 1/3 the rate.
I'd be interested in how they calculate the anomalies. Are the base period numbers from the same stations?
I'd hate to see people get roped in because they like to see negative anomalies. And then find out later that the base numbers are giving a misleading result. And as time passes, the warming turns out to be overstated.
I don't know that there is really enough here to make any conclusions about a trend anyway, do you think? Sure you can draw the line, but is it meaningful. |
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Nov 19, 2021 2:42:33 GMT
I think that date range would be even more damning against the AGW case.
I didn't see the little mail-to icon down at the bottom of their page. I'll ask them about their data. I'm hoping that it is unadjusted data. I compared the global.temperature annualized temperature anomalies to annualized UAH Lower Troposphere temperature anomalies. They track pretty well. Annualized ENSO direction leads both. Expect downward trends in UAH and global.temp anomalies. The Lord giveth. The Lord taketh away. Get over it. Would it be surprising that surface anomalies would show greater variance than Lower Troposphere measurements (higher highs and lower lows)? Soon we will have 2021. Expect a banger? I don't know what the anomalie number will be, but I check that website every week or so and I think the deviation has been negative maybe every time. I think that it will be smallish, like -.12 F. Maybe there is a section of time that I have missed and I am way off. |
|
|
|
Post by code on Nov 19, 2021 4:26:47 GMT
|
|
Would it be surprising that surface anomalies would show greater variance than Lower Troposphere measurements (higher highs and lower lows)? Soon we will have 2021. Expect a banger?