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Post by duwayne on Oct 14, 2022 18:48:55 GMT
The September AMO came in at a very hot 0.664C. This broke the previous September record of 0.560C and it is the highest Monthly AMO for any month on record (since 1857). The AMO is a mystery to me and although it historically has risen and fallen in general accordance with the overall Ocean Current Cycle, over the past year or so, it has remained warm. Without this unusually warm AMO area UAH global temperature anomalies would surely be down to something like 0.0C due to the multi-month La Nina.
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 15, 2022 0:19:48 GMT
The September AMO came in at a very hot 0.664C. This broke the previous September record of 0.560C and it is the highest Monthly AMO for any month on record (since 1857). The AMO is a mystery to me and although it historically has risen and fallen in general accordance with the overall Ocean Current Cycle, over the past year or so, it has remained warm. Without this unusually warm AMO area UAH global temperature anomalies would surely be down to something like 0.0C due to the multi-month La Nina.
It is harder to decipher because they do not give you any geographic subdivisions for the AMO. We know that the NAD, north of 45N, is different than the main gyre south of 45N. Currently NAD SSTAs are dropping. And the main gyre is heating up. It is possible, in the absence of a dump of gyre, that the high AMO may continue for a while. Chart1 & 2 below show that a drop into a low AMO may occur at major solar cycle drops (approx. 1855(? this one is iffy), 1903 & 1965). The 1855 call may not exist as it's not well developed and not far past the Dalton Minimum exit slope. Complete AMO cycles (low and high) have lasted 50 and 60 years. Not a very large sample. The high portions of the first two cycles lasted about 40 years. Sixty years from 1965 would be 2025.
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Post by ratty on Oct 15, 2022 0:43:51 GMT
I'm still working on getting you that pay rise, MB.  |
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 15, 2022 1:51:16 GMT
I'm still working on getting you that pay rise, MB. Tell them I didn't get my last one.  |
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Post by nonentropic on Oct 15, 2022 2:17:06 GMT
One little side observation that I have made is that the tropical cyclone factory that has its roots in the Saharan Africa produces a string of depressions that grown in the tropics move west to the Gulf area then crash and burn over the US or slide by with maybe a glancing blow then cruise into the UK and Western Europe.
The point is that stable low activity seasons in the US Caribbean allow blocking highs over Europe to survive longer producing hot weather, as observed this year in Western Europe or if a residual depression pushes into the UK then further East they the Highs are then broken up.
As winter sets in the opposite risk is setup I think.
As the cyclone season this year was late they the UK etc. had settle hot weather with a dry spell, as the season has now got going the UK has experienced its wettest drought on record.
What stops the cyclones forming? Because I think that defines the risk for Germany and others this winter.
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Post by blustnmtn on Oct 15, 2022 11:32:54 GMT
One little side observation that I have made is that the tropical cyclone factory that has its roots in the Saharan Africa produces a string of depressions that grown in the tropics move west to the Gulf area then crash and burn over the US or slide by with maybe a glancing blow then cruise into the UK and Western Europe. The point is that stable low activity seasons in the US Caribbean allow blocking highs over Europe to survive longer producing hot weather, as observed this year in Western Europe or if a residual depression pushes into the UK then further East they the Highs are then broken up. As winter sets in the opposite risk is setup I think. As the cyclone season this year was late they the UK etc. had settle hot weather with a dry spell, as the season has now got going the UK has experienced its wettest drought on record. What stops the cyclones forming? Because I think that defines the risk for Germany and others this winter. I believe there was a persistent flow of Saharan dust in the atmosphere this year suppressing cyclone development. |
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Post by nonentropic on Oct 15, 2022 18:12:40 GMT
builds or increases the shear thus killing the embryonic depressions.
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Post by nonentropic on Oct 15, 2022 18:15:02 GMT
The "summer NAO" looks to be completely out of kilter.
MB what is this driven by and is it an important thing?
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 17, 2022 1:41:16 GMT
The "summer NAO" looks to be completely out of kilter. MB what is this driven by and is it an important thing? A decade long summer decline in surface pressures over the Azores. Fits nicely with theory of weaker Hadley cells in weak solar cycles. Thus a strong negative summer NAO. Haven't seen one like this since the exit slope from the Dalton Minimum. And that only because of the British Admiralty's anal data habits. Thank you. Think that might have something to do with drought in Europe? |
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Post by blustnmtn on Oct 26, 2022 12:16:32 GMT
A very interesting article from WUWT focusing on energy transport in the atmosphere: "Solar activity affects Earth’s climate, but the correlation changes with time. It is sometimes positive, that is Earth warms with increasing solar activity and sometimes Earth cools with increasing solar activity. The switches appear to occur every 80-120 years. The climate/solar correlation changes suggest that the solar effect on climate is not directly due to changes in solar radiation like the IPCC proposes, but to solar induced changes to large atmospheric processes that are being neglected." wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/25/meridional-transport-the-most-fundamental-climate-variable/This is a good read, ENJOY! |
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Post by Sigurdur on Oct 29, 2022 20:03:19 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 30, 2022 0:18:11 GMT
How DID our ancestors ever survive? It beggars belief.  |
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Post by Sigurdur on Oct 30, 2022 2:56:00 GMT
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Post by nonentropic on Oct 30, 2022 19:25:22 GMT
Interesting Sig makes the commentary of perma drought look particularly stupid.
Ratty don't sell your boat!
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 1, 2022 17:18:52 GMT
Chasing rabbits into and out of holes.
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