Seismic Activity and Solar Cycles

[Sigurdur]

I don't believe it doesn't as well.

[acidohm]

Apr 17, 2024 21:42:13 GMT missouriboy said:

Did this one hit the stratosphere?  Shall we expect a notch down in temperatures?  People tell me that this huge geothermal plug that underlies Indonesia and others couldn't possibly contribute significant heat to that whole area of ocean.  I'm not sure I believe it. 

Night time eruption so no immediate visual on height, but seen estimates of up to 1.5 miles, so, way short.

Unless someone shows otherwise, 1.5 miles isn't even impressive in the scheme of things.

[missouriboy]

Apr 18, 2024 4:40:03 GMT acidohm said:

Apr 17, 2024 21:42:13 GMT missouriboy said:

Did this one hit the stratosphere?  Shall we expect a notch down in temperatures?  People tell me that this huge geothermal plug that underlies Indonesia and others couldn't possibly contribute significant heat to that whole area of ocean.  I'm not sure I believe it. 

Night time eruption so no immediate visual on height, but seen estimates of up to 1.5 miles, so, way short.

Unless someone shows otherwise, 1.5 miles isn't even impressive in the scheme of things.

Quite right.  But as in many things, the accumulation of small, medium and large events at decreasing intervals have their effects.  I haven't expended the effort ... but perhaps we need a new cumulative metric akin to ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy).  We could call it AGE (Accumulated Geothermal Energy).  What would it show?

[missouriboy]

Apr 18, 2024 4:40:03 GMT acidohm said:

Apr 17, 2024 21:42:13 GMT missouriboy said:

Did this one hit the stratosphere?  Shall we expect a notch down in temperatures?  People tell me that this huge geothermal plug that underlies Indonesia and others couldn't possibly contribute significant heat to that whole area of ocean.  I'm not sure I believe it. 

Night time eruption so no immediate visual on height, but seen estimates of up to 1.5 miles, so, way short.

Unless someone shows otherwise, 1.5 miles isn't even impressive in the scheme of things.

watchers.news/2024/04/17/multiple-high-level-eruptions-at-ruang-volcano-force-entire-island-to-evacuate-indonesia/

55,000 feet?

[phydeaux2363]

Equatorial tropopause is what? 70,000 feet? So close.

[missouriboy]

Apr 18, 2024 16:25:42 GMT phydeaux2363 said:

Equatorial tropopause is what? 70,000 feet? So close.

Big Indonesian one above that might put a chill on mid-Pacific solar heating. That which feeds the eastward bound gravity waves and mixes in with anything coming north along S. America.  The SAM index is positive so more flow going north?  Colder tropical water with a diminished heating system - diminished evaporation- less cloud cover?  Less energy to drive the overlying air masses.  Less heat-required events.

Lifted this from an article.

We present a synthesis definition with a bottom at 150 hPa, 355 K, 14 km (pressure, potential temperature, and altitude) and a top at 70 hPa, 425 K, 18.5 km. Laterally, the TTL is bounded by the position of the subtropical jets. We highlight recent progress in understanding of the TTL but emphasize that a number of processes, notably deep, possibly overshooting convection, remain not well understood. The TTL acts in many ways as a “gate” to the stratosphere, and understanding all relevant processes is of great importance for reliable predictions of future stratospheric ozone and climate.

[phydeaux2363]

Wow. 14km is only 46,000 feet. So an ash cloud at 55,000 could get through the TTL.

[missouriboy]

Apr 18, 2024 22:54:28 GMT phydeaux2363 said:

Wow. 14km is only 46,000 feet. So an ash cloud at 55,000 could get through the TTL.

So ... an ash cloud inserted into the lower tropical stratosphere decreases (by varying degrees) solar radiation reaching / penetrating / warming the tropical water column.  Thus post-ENSO recharge of surface waters pushed east by the trade winds should result in lower overall SSTs and evaporation (together with heat) to the tropical troposphere after a large tropical volcanic event.  A cooler La Nina?  My volcanic eruption data file is not currently coded by latitude but is shown in the third chart.  Seems clear that lower stratosphere temps were higher during SC21 and 22 ... then dropped ... and are rising again in SC25.

[blustnmtn]

As Cycle 25 peaks:

www.zerohedge.com/weather/japan-issues-first-ever-megaquake-alert

[ratty]

Aug 9, 2024 14:16:54 GMT blustnmtn said:

As Cycle 25 peaks:

www.zerohedge.com/weather/japan-issues-first-ever-megaquake-alert

Is "Superquake" not scary enough?

From The Guardian ...

The meteorological agency’s megaquake advisory warned that “if a major earthquake were to occur in the future, strong shaking and large tsunamis would be generated”.

It added: “The likelihood of a new major earthquake is higher than normal, but this is not an indication that a major earthquake will definitely occur during a specific period of time.”

[ratty]

I was reminded of this ....

Influence of Solar Cycles on Earthquakes

This research inspects possible influence of solar cycles on earthquakes through of statistical analyses. We also discussed the mechanism that would drive the occurrence of increasing of earthquakes during solar maxima. The study was based on worldwide earthquakes events during approximately four hundred years (1600-2010). The increase of earthquakes events followed the Maxima of Solar cycle, and also depends on the tectonic plate location. From 1600 until 1645 events increased during the Maxima in some of the tectonic plates as Pacific, Arabian and South America. The earthquakes analyzed during two grand solar minima, the Maunder (1645-1720) and the Dalton (1790-1820) showed a decrease in the number of earthquakes and the solar activity. It was observed during these minima a significant number of events at specific geological features. After the last minima (Dalton) the earthquakes pattern increased with solar maxima. The calculations showed that events increasing during solar maxima most in the Pacific, South America or Arabian until 1900. Since there were few records during these three centuries we needed additional analysis on modern data. We took the last four solar cycles events (1950-2010) and made similar calculations. The results agreed with the former calculations. It might be that the mechanism for the Sun-Earth connection relies on the solar wind speed. In both records (1600-1900) and (1950-2010) the results showed a significant increase in earthquakes events in some of the tectonic plates linked to solar maxima. The Solar wind energy striking the Earth's magnetosphere affects the entire environment because the pressure on the region increases and the magnetosphere shrinks sometimes four Earth's radii. This sudden compression causes earthquakes in specific plates. During the times of solar minima the pressure from the solar wind on the earth decreases, then the magnetosphere expands and earthquakes happen in a different pattern according to the geological feature on earth's surface less frequently. Solar driven events include coronal mass ejections (CME) and coronal holes, which are at a maximum during the descending phase of solar activity. The tectonic are important because there is heterogeneity in the crust and the tectonic stress depends on each region. The geo-effectiveness of solar wind from a coronal hole only depends on the position of the hole relative to the Earth and for the CMEs an additional factor is their velocity. The influence of these solar events could be detected from electromagnetic variations on the ground prior the earthquakes. The goal in this research was to show the solar events influenced the earthquakes and seismologic events following some special display and also how the Sun's activity played to make earthquakes increase. This paper discussed details of this mechanism, calculations and associated factors.


Publication:
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011, abstract id.NH33A-1552
Pub Date: December 2011

[blustnmtn]

www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/aug/18/shiveluch-erupts-after-powerful-earthquake-in-russ/

[flearider]

Aug 9, 2024 22:44:50 GMT ratty said:

I was reminded of this ....

Influence of Solar Cycles on Earthquakes

This research inspects possible influence of solar cycles on earthquakes through of statistical analyses. We also discussed the mechanism that would drive the occurrence of increasing of earthquakes during solar maxima. The study was based on worldwide earthquakes events during approximately four hundred years (1600-2010). The increase of earthquakes events followed the Maxima of Solar cycle, and also depends on the tectonic plate location. From 1600 until 1645 events increased during the Maxima in some of the tectonic plates as Pacific, Arabian and South America. The earthquakes analyzed during two grand solar minima, the Maunder (1645-1720) and the Dalton (1790-1820) showed a decrease in the number of earthquakes and the solar activity. It was observed during these minima a significant number of events at specific geological features. After the last minima (Dalton) the earthquakes pattern increased with solar maxima. The calculations showed that events increasing during solar maxima most in the Pacific, South America or Arabian until 1900. Since there were few records during these three centuries we needed additional analysis on modern data. We took the last four solar cycles events (1950-2010) and made similar calculations. The results agreed with the former calculations. It might be that the mechanism for the Sun-Earth connection relies on the solar wind speed. In both records (1600-1900) and (1950-2010) the results showed a significant increase in earthquakes events in some of the tectonic plates linked to solar maxima. The Solar wind energy striking the Earth's magnetosphere affects the entire environment because the pressure on the region increases and the magnetosphere shrinks sometimes four Earth's radii. This sudden compression causes earthquakes in specific plates. During the times of solar minima the pressure from the solar wind on the earth decreases, then the magnetosphere expands and earthquakes happen in a different pattern according to the geological feature on earth's surface less frequently. Solar driven events include coronal mass ejections (CME) and coronal holes, which are at a maximum during the descending phase of solar activity. The tectonic are important because there is heterogeneity in the crust and the tectonic stress depends on each region. The geo-effectiveness of solar wind from a coronal hole only depends on the position of the hole relative to the Earth and for the CMEs an additional factor is their velocity. The influence of these solar events could be detected from electromagnetic variations on the ground prior the earthquakes. The goal in this research was to show the solar events influenced the earthquakes and seismologic events following some special display and also how the Sun's activity played to make earthquakes increase. This paper discussed details of this mechanism, calculations and associated factors.


Publication:
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011, abstract id.NH33A-1552
Pub Date: December 2011

yes .. but i thought of it a different way ..like when  you heat a balloon .. neutrons and all that bombardment from the sun over the last 50 yrs ? earth swells shall we say .. now we are into the cooling the earth must contract .. i can see a uptick over the next 7 yrs of very strong quakes and eruptions but i'm just a guy read stuff .. 

[missouriboy]

Earthquake Swarm in SE Missouri.  The New Madrid Fault area.  It has been 212 years since the BIG ONE.

www.wsiltv.com/news/fourth-earthquake-strikes-area-in-five-days/article_fe8084b6-9ad2-11ef-9844-974806a9497b.html

[ratty]

Nov 5, 2024 16:16:21 GMT missouriboy said:

Earthquake Swarm in SE Missouri.  The New Madrid Fault area.  It has been 212 years since the BIG ONE.

www.wsiltv.com/news/fourth-earthquake-strikes-area-in-five-days/article_fe8084b6-9ad2-11ef-9844-974806a9497b.html

Trump!