Sea Ice extent

[neilhamp]

Sea ice extent for October suggests the slow recovery in sea ice since 2007

[blustnmtn]

Nov 30, 2023 7:12:33 GMT neilhamp said:

Sea ice extent for October suggests the slow recovery in sea ice since 2007

It sure looks like that trend line was started at the peak of a long periodicity and now has found the bottom of.it ~40 years later. 80 years to see a full cycle is a lifetime for humans and looks like climate change but isn’t a breath for earth. What do you think neilhamp?

[neilhamp]

Hi Blustnmtn

Thanks for your continued interest.
At the risk of boring everyone yet again.
I am still putting forward the same old story, backed up by the same old image!
I would like to update the image but the AMO data stopped being produced in January 2023.

The Arctic temperatures are shown below.
They go up and down with the rise and fall of the AMO
As you correctly say "Blust" the sea ice data record was started when the AMO was at its low point.
As the AMO started to rise the sea ice started to fall

IF the AMO follows its previous trend it should soon start to fall.
That is why I think the Arctic Ice started to recover in 2007 when the AMO reached is maximum.
When the AMO starts to fall, I expect the Artic Ice to start rising.
I expect this to happen sometime in the next five years!
I am now 82. I hope to live long enough to see if I am right!

Neil

[ratty]

Dec 2, 2023 19:12:01 GMT neilhamp said:

[ Snip ]
I expect this to happen sometime in the next five years!
I am now 82. I hope to live long enough to see if I am right!

Neil

Keep up with that throat gargle advertised in your avatar and you'll be right ......

PS: I'm only hanging around so I can tell a few people "I told you so!".

[neilhamp]

Thanks for the advice on throat gargle Ratty.
It switches to Whisky and Ginger ale for the Winter months

[Sigurdur]

Mechanisms of the Early 20th Century Warming in the Arctic

www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825221003214

[neilhamp]

Decided to present Sea Ice Extent data for the past two years in a chart.
The month end sea ice extent has been ABOVE the 2010's average for 16 of the past 25 months. (64% of the time)



Extent is 16th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

[duwayne]

Nov 30, 2023 7:12:33 GMT neilhamp said:

Sea ice extent for October suggests the slow recovery in sea ice since 2007

More evidence the Arctic Sea Ice has stabilized.

More info here….

wattsupwiththat.com/2024/01/11/no-arctic-sea-ice-isnt-shrinking/

[missouriboy]

wattsupwiththat.com/2024/01/11/no-arctic-sea-ice-isnt-shrinking/

[neilhamp]

19 out of 28 month end sea ice extent have been above the 2010's average





Sea ice extent dropped. It is now 116K sq.km. LESS THAN the 2010's average (red v yellow below)
It has also fallen below the 2023 sea ice extent
I will keep the image below updated through to April month end

[blustnmtn]

Perhaps, or it could bump up again like 12-13.

[ratty]

Now, you all know I'm not a conspiracy theorist .... but ....

Have you noticed that, as Antarctic sea ice took an upward step, Arctic ice went backwards?

[acidohm]

[ratty]

Global Warming and Anthropogenic Emissions of Water Vapor

Abstract

The two major components of greenhouse gases, CO2 and water, are indispensable for sustaining life on Earth. Water vapor is the most significant greenhouse gas that has provided the earth with an “atmospheric blanket” and prevented the surface of the earth from freezing. However, contemporary climate models largely consider the influence of water vapor as a factor within positive feedback loops, while the possibility of direct anthropogenic emissions of water vapor as primary drivers of global warming remains underexplored. In particular, a common assumption has been that the global atmospheric water vapor will increase by about 6 to 7% in response to each 1 °C of warming caused by the nonaqueous greenhouse gases in accordance with the Clausius–Clapeyron equation, and this increased moisture content will lead to an increased greenhouse gas effect. However, the Clausius–Clapeyron equation is based on two-phase equilibrium, and there is no a priori physical basis that it can be applied to the earth’s climate for which the water vapor does not always coexist with a condensed phase. Here, we utilized global specific humidity data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set to examine whether the Clausius–Clapeyron equation can form a basis for such positive feedback commonly assumed in the contemporary climate models. Our results show (1) qualitiatively, the linear nature of the Clausius–Clapeyron equation demonstrates a significant level of consistency when averaged over expansive regions like specific latitudes around the globe, (2) this consistency does not extend to individual locations where a plot of (ln Pv) vs (1/T) becomes nonlinear, indicating substantial undersaturation that varies with time, (3) quantitatively, the discrepancies between the observed and the expected values of the slopes are wide-ranging, and (4) the absolute amount of water vapor increased substantially above the population centers and the agricultural areas in the Northern Hemisphere between 1960 and 2020. Human activities appear to have substantial impacts on the local water vapor content in the atmosphere. Once we assume that anthropogenic emissions of water vapor are the source of local water vapor content in the atmosphere, it can, together with the air circulation patterns (Hadler, Ferrel and polar), provide an explanation for the observations that Arctic ice has been melting at a much more accelerated rate than Antarctic ice.

Is it?

[wheels59]

Looking back at Neil's and Ratty's March 5th posts of arctic sea ice extent and area graphs, (above), which seem to be automatically updating that seems a fair healthy rebound for 2024 I would say.