Sea Ice extent

[missouriboy]

Apr 16, 2023 13:46:46 GMT neilhamp said:

duwayne,
I too am looking for update of AMO data.
Don't know what is causing the delay.

Bad News?

[ratty]

Apr 17, 2023 0:01:45 GMT missouriboy said:

Apr 16, 2023 13:46:46 GMT neilhamp said:

duwayne,
I too am looking for update of AMO data.
Don't know what is causing the delay.

Bad News?

Data to be manipulated?

[nonentropic]

I hate wiggle watching, but have to say I do a bit of it regardless.

The temperature of earth has some impact on sea ice extent but actually wind direction and strength are far more important, by way of example the 15% sea ice extent above is 85% open water so a reduction in extent of 50% could be only a consequence of wind direct ie toward an obstacle or away.

The whole issue is that the AMO is sluggishly reversing that will drive a reduction in Antarctic sea ice and a lift in Arctic sea ice. Which will take center stage then.

The most disgraceful issue is the total lack of discussion about the cool southern oceans and the cool temperatures in the Antarctic for the past 3 decades, that speak volumes about the likely extent of the natural variations even if there is a AGW component at some level. Charney was not a fool.

[walnut]

Apr 17, 2023 3:02:39 GMT nonentropic said:

I hate wiggle watching, but have to say I do a bit of it regardless.

The temperature of earth has some impact on sea ice extent but actually wind direction and strength are far more important, by way of example the 15% sea ice extent above is 85% open water so a reduction in extent of 50% could be only a consequence of wind direct ie toward an obstacle or away.

The whole issue is that the AMO is sluggishly reversing that will drive a reduction in Antarctic sea ice and a lift in Arctic sea ice. Which will take center stage then.

The most disgraceful issue is the total lack of discussion about the cool southern oceans and the cool temperatures in the Antarctic for the past 3 decades, that speak volumes about the likely extent of the natural variations even if there is a AGW component at some level. Charney was not a fool.

I have finally noticed lately a couple of headlines about Antarctica, but I didn't save or bookmark them.

[ratty]

Apr 17, 2023 4:28:58 GMT walnut said:

Apr 17, 2023 3:02:39 GMT nonentropic said:

I hate wiggle watching, but have to say I do a bit of it regardless.

The temperature of earth has some impact on sea ice extent but actually wind direction and strength are far more important, by way of example the 15% sea ice extent above is 85% open water so a reduction in extent of 50% could be only a consequence of wind direct ie toward an obstacle or away.

The whole issue is that the AMO is sluggishly reversing that will drive a reduction in Antarctic sea ice and a lift in Arctic sea ice. Which will take center stage then.

The most disgraceful issue is the total lack of discussion about the cool southern oceans and the cool temperatures in the Antarctic for the past 3 decades, that speak volumes about the likely extent of the natural variations even if there is a AGW component at some level. Charney was not a fool.

I have finally noticed lately a couple of headlines about Antarctica, but I didn't save or bookmark them.

It's about time to have another go at the WAIS; this from 2020:

How close is the West Antarctic ice sheet to a ‘tipping point’?

Between its east and west ice sheets and its peninsula, Antarctica holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by around 60m.

The West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) is a relatively small part, containing an amount of ice equivalent to 3.3m of sea level rise. Yet, most of it sits in a precarious position and is considered “theoretically unstable”.

As a result, how the WAIS will change in response to human-caused warming is generally thought to be the largest source of uncertainty for long-term sea level projections.

Etc ....

[neilhamp]

November month end sea ice extent fell BELOW 2010’s average for the first time since March 2022.
It remained BELOW 2010's average until April 2023

Jan.31.—-16th.lowest. +333,064 sq.km. above 2010’s average.
Feb.28.—-11th.lowest +116,764 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Mar.31.—-10th.lowest -127,470 sq.km. BELOW 2010’s average
Apr. 30.—-14th.lowest +16,886 sq.km. above 2010’s average
May. 31.—15th lowest +395,097 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Jun. 30.—--10th.lowest +35,744 sq.km above 2010’s average
Jul. 31.—–12th lowest +228,905 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Aug.31.—-11th.lowest +203,902 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Sep.30.—-–7th lowest +115,918 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Oct.31.-- 11th lowest, +269,119 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Nov30.——5th lowest, -183,803 sq.km. BELOW 2010’s average
Dec.31-----4th.lowest,-138,700 sq.km. BELOW 2010's average
Jan.31----2nd.lowest, -302,000 sq.km. BELOW 2010's average
Feb.28------9th.lowest, -36,000 sq.km. BELOW 2010's average
Mar.31-----7th.lowest, -274,000 sq.km. BELOW 2010's average
Apr.30-----11th.lowest, +50,500 sq.km. above 2010's average
May 31----11th.lowest, +124,000 sq.km. above 2010's average

Month end April sea ice has just risen above 2010's average.
May sea ice extent remains above 2010's average but significantly lower than 2022.

[neilhamp]

November 2022 month end sea ice extent fell BELOW 2010’s average for the first time since March 2022.
It remained BELOW 2010's average until April 2023

2022
Jan.31.—-16th.lowest. +333,064 sq.km. above 2010’s average.
Feb.28.—-11th.lowest +116,764 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Mar.31.—-10th.lowest -127,470 sq.km. BELOW 2010’s average
Apr. 30.—-14th.lowest +16,886 sq.km. above 2010’s average
May. 31.—15th lowest +395,097 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Jun. 30.-10th.lowest +35,744 sq.km above 2010’s average
Jul. 31.—–12th lowest +228,905 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Aug.31.—-11th.lowest +203,902 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Sep.30.—-–7th lowest +115,918 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Oct.31.-- 11th lowest, +269,119 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Nov30.——5th lowest, -183,803 sq.km. BELOW 2010’s average
Dec.31-----4th.lowest,-138,700 sq.km. BELOW 2010's average
2023
Jan.31----2nd.lowest, -302,000 sq.km. BELOW 2010's average
Feb.28------9th.lowest, -36,000 sq.km. BELOW 2010's average
Mar.31-----7th.lowest, -274,000 sq.km. BELOW 2010's average
Apr.30-----11th.lowest, +50,500 sq.km. above 2010's average
May 31---11th.lowest, +103,000 sq.km. above 2010's average
June 30 11th.lowest, +81,754 sq.km. above 2010's average

Last year, the June sea ice extent fell dramatically in June.
This year, the June sea ice extent has remained well above the 2010's average.
The June 2023 sea ice extent was greater than all the years since 2010, except 2015 and 2018.

[blustnmtn]

judithcurry.com/2023/06/15/is-the-arctic-september-sea-ice-doomed-to-disappear-in-the-2030s/

[neilhamp]

Tallbloke discusses the two conflicting theories on Arctic Ice

tallbloke.wordpress.com/2023/06/21/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly-may-23-update-a-tale-of-two-paradigm

One is the future predicted by IPCC scientists that says we’re heading for an ice-free Arctic in summer 2035 on a fairly linear trend all the way down.
The other is the sceptical null hypothesis, that Arctic ice variation is natural, cyclic, and probably following the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

I notice he has an earlier, more detailed, post explaining the correlation with the AMO.

tallbloke.wordpress.com/2023/05/07/its-worse-than-we-thought-there-are-only-five-years-left/



"By 2028 those bands will have entirely deviated one from the other, and whether the data falls in one band or the other will tell us if the world’s climate is controlled by the carbon dioxide knob, or if natural cycles dominate."

[youngjasper]

Jun 22, 2023 6:41:43 GMT neilhamp said:

Tallbloke discusses the two conflicting theories on Arctic Ice

tallbloke.wordpress.com/2023/06/21/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly-may-23-update-a-tale-of-two-paradigm

One is the future predicted by IPCC scientists that says we’re heading for an ice-free Arctic in summer 2035 on a fairly linear trend all the way down.
The other is the sceptical null hypothesis, that Arctic ice variation is natural, cyclic, and probably following the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

Interesting.  The world is not linear and true (un-adjusted) historical date shows that.  It is cyclical.  Arctic Sea Ice Extent is still channeling between the average of the 2000s and 2010s. Source: ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Not wiggle watching, but watching.

[nonentropic]

Lets all come clean we wiggle watch!

[ratty]

Jun 26, 2023 2:13:46 GMT nonentropic said:

Lets all come clean we wiggle watch!

Thank you MOBoy, wiggle creator in chief!

[missouriboy]

Wiggles are fun.  If you watch them long enough, they morph into bigger (nested) wiggles.  By definition, a wiggle incorporates an up and down phase.  The trick is to figure out when they change their macro-direction.  The Great Climate Shift of ~1976 was an energy-macro-wiggle change.  What we are seeing today seems to be a reversal of the hemisphere of concentration.  As ENSO and the PDO collapse into cold, the equatorial western heat is congregating further south.  Interesting that this shift seems to be providing OZ with a colder winter.  From an interest perspective, we are lucky that these macro-wiggles are coming together in our life time. 

[missouriboy]

If you are not brain-dead, and are an observer of other natural "cycles" in our world, then this is a paradigm changer.  And you will never again listen to linearistas.  This graph is an important visual tool in that conversion.  Others can do the same.  I see a tee-shirt in this graph's future.  I wonder if he'd mind.  The Celts of Brittany might be interested.    As I read in "the Ballad of Ecological Awareness" back in the 1960s ... "No relationship in the World is linear for long".  That would make a great caption for that tee-shirt.  Thank you Neil.

armedwithvisions.com/2011/10/13/kenneth-e-boulding-ballad-of-ecological-awareness/

Jun 22, 2023 6:41:43 GMT neilhamp said:

Tallbloke discusses the two conflicting theories on Arctic Ice

tallbloke.wordpress.com/2023/06/21/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly-may-23-update-a-tale-of-two-paradigm

One is the future predicted by IPCC scientists that says we’re heading for an ice-free Arctic in summer 2035 on a fairly linear trend all the way down.
The other is the sceptical null hypothesis, that Arctic ice variation is natural, cyclic, and probably following the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

I notice he has an earlier, more detailed, post explaining the correlation with the AMO.

tallbloke.wordpress.com/2023/05/07/its-worse-than-we-thought-there-are-only-five-years-left/



"By 2028 those bands will have entirely deviated one from the other, and whether the data falls in one band or the other will tell us if the world’s climate is controlled by the carbon dioxide knob, or if natural cycles dominate."

[ratty]

Malignant obsessions distract us from the collapse of human civilisation

Author Michael Callanan is a retired teacher of Logic and History, with an interest in international relations and contemporary history.