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Post by ratty on Oct 16, 2022 0:44:14 GMT
Quite agree blustmntn, Thats why I decided to make the comparison this year with the 2010's average. So far, we are keeping above the average. It will take one or two more years before the trend becomes clear. Much depends on the long-awaited drop in the AMO which has, unfortunately, taken a sudden upturn this month Best wishes, Neil Neil, for those of us that may not have a few more years, what is you model predicting? I need some certainty.  You do have a model I presume.  |
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Post by neilhamp on Oct 22, 2022 6:44:38 GMT
Hi Ratty, I am still putting forward the same old story, backed up by the same old image! The Arctic temperatures are shown below. They go up and down with the rise and fall of the AMO The AMO reached its maximum in 2007, since then the Artic ice has stopped falling. I expect September Artic Ice to start rising in the next few years. As the AMO falls I think the Arctic Ice will recover. Neil   |
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Post by youngjasper on Nov 8, 2022 1:44:03 GMT
Sea ice for 2022 likes the 2000s avg and 2010s avg channel:
Note the low for 2022 is in the channel as compared to the three lowest years: 2012, 2019, 2020.
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Post by neilhamp on Nov 9, 2022 17:00:10 GMT
Since August last year the month-end sea ice extent has only been below the 2010’s average ONCE at the end of March!
ALL other months the month-end sea ice extent has been ABOVE the 2010’s average.
Jan.31.—-16th.lowest. +333,064 sq.km. above 2010’s average.
Feb.28.—-11th.lowest +116,764 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Mar.31.—-10th.lowest -127,470 sq.km. BELOW 2010’s average
Apr.30.—-14th.lowest +16,886 sq.km. above 2010’s average
May.31.—-15th lowest +395,097 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Jun.30.—-10th.lowest +35,744 sq.km above 2010’s average
Jul.31.—–12th lowest +228,905 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Aug.31.—-11th.lowest +203,902 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Sep.30.—–7th lowest +115,918 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Oct.31.—–11th lowest, +269,119 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Nov.26.-----8th lowest, -21,000 sq.km. BELOW 2010's average
Updated to Nov.27.
Still above 2010's average.
Will trend continue to month end?
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Post by Sigurdur on Nov 9, 2022 20:11:08 GMT
Since August last year the month-end sea ice extent has only been below the 2010’s average ONCE at the end of March! ALL other months the month-end sea ice extent has been ABOVE the 2010’s average. Jan.31.—-16th.lowest. +333,064 sq.km. above 2010’s average. Feb.28.—-11th.lowest +116,764 sq.km. above 2010’s average Mar.31.—-10th.lowest -127,470 sq.km. below 2010’s average Apr.30.—-14th.lowest +16,886 sq.km. above 2010’s average May.31.—-15th lowest +395,097 sq.km. above 2010’s average Jun.30.—-10th.lowest +35,744 sq.km above 2010’s average Jul.31.—–12th lowest +228,905 sq.km. above 2010’s average Aug.31.—-11th.lowest +203,902 sq.km. above 2010’s average Sep.30.—–7th lowest +115,918 sq.km. above 2010’s average Oct.31.—–11th lowest, +269,119 sq.km. above 2010’s average Let’s see if the trend continues into 2023 I predict it will |
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Post by Sigurdur on Nov 29, 2022 5:11:15 GMT
polarbearscience.com/Polar bear specialist calls Hudson Bay freeze-up ‘late’ yet bears were moving offshore 2 weeks ago Posted on November 28, 2022 | Comments Offon Polar bear specialist calls Hudson Bay freeze-up ‘late’ yet bears were moving offshore 2 weeks ago Predictably, polar bear specialist Andrew Derocher has finally posted a tracking map of the Western Hudson Bay bears his team has fitted with collars and eartags–two weeks after bears were released from Churchill’s polar bear jail, which is the local signal that there is enough sea ice for bears to leave shore. A
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 30, 2022 0:21:48 GMT
polarbearscience.com/Polar bear specialist calls Hudson Bay freeze-up ‘late’ yet bears were moving offshore 2 weeks ago Posted on November 28, 2022 | Comments Offon Polar bear specialist calls Hudson Bay freeze-up ‘late’ yet bears were moving offshore 2 weeks ago Predictably, polar bear specialist Andrew Derocher has finally posted a tracking map of the Western Hudson Bay bears his team has fitted with collars and eartags–two weeks after bears were released from Churchill’s polar bear jail, which is the local signal that there is enough sea ice for bears to leave shore. A I would have thought that the Bears were smart enough to figure that out for themselves.  |
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Post by neilhamp on Dec 1, 2022 7:41:27 GMT
November month end sea ice extent falls BELOW 2010’s average.
Jan.31.—-16th.lowest. +333,064 sq.km. above 2010’s average.
Feb.28.—-11th.lowest +116,764 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Mar.31.—-10th.lowest -127,470 sq.km. BELOW 2010’s average
Apr. 30.—-14th.lowest +16,886 sq.km. above 2010’s average
May. 31.—15th lowest +395,097 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Jun. 30.—-10th.lowest +35,744 sq.km above 2010’s average
Jul. 31.—–12th lowest +228,905 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Aug.31.—-11th.lowest +203,902 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Sep.30.—–7th lowest +115,918 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Oct.31.—– 11th lowest, +269,119 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Nov30.——5th lowest, -183,803 sq.km. BELOW 2010’s average
Dec.5------3rd lowest, -379,600 sq.km. BELOW 2010's average
December now dropped to 3rd lowest
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Post by ratty on Dec 5, 2022 11:54:24 GMT
November month end sea ice extent falls BELOW 2010’s average. Jan.31.—-16th.lowest. +333,064 sq.km. above 2010’s average. Feb.28.—-11th.lowest +116,764 sq.km. above 2010’s average Mar.31.—-10th.lowest -127,470 sq.km. BELOW 2010’s average Apr. 30.—-14th.lowest +16,886 sq.km. above 2010’s average May. 31.—15th lowest +395,097 sq.km. above 2010’s average Jun. 30.—-10th.lowest +35,744 sq.km above 2010’s average Jul. 31.—–12th lowest +228,905 sq.km. above 2010’s average Aug.31.—-11th.lowest +203,902 sq.km. above 2010’s average Sep.30.—–7th lowest +115,918 sq.km. above 2010’s average Oct.31.—– 11th lowest, +269,119 sq.km. above 2010’s average Nov30.——5th lowest, -183,803 sq.km. BELOW 2010’s average Will the trend continue into 2023? Neil, what have you done to the Arctic lately? Big spike in temperature and ice vanishing at an alarming, unprecedented rate!!! |
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Post by neilhamp on Dec 5, 2022 14:25:02 GMT
Ratty,
I should never have started keeping a check on those sea ice extent levels.
I think I should just stick to the Nenana Ice Classic breakout dates.
Neil
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Post by Sigurdur on Dec 5, 2022 22:05:17 GMT
Ratty, I should never have started keeping a check on those sea ice extent levels. I think I should just stick to the Nenana Ice Classic breakout dates. Neil Naw, we like both!! |
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Post by ratty on Dec 6, 2022 4:41:33 GMT
Ratty, I should never have started keeping a check on those sea ice extent levels. I think I should just stick to the Nenana Ice Classic breakout dates. Neil Wimp! |
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Post by nonentropic on Dec 6, 2022 6:56:28 GMT
great contribution please stay with it.
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Post by neilhamp on Dec 6, 2022 14:24:18 GMT
November month end sea ice extent fell BELOW 2010’s average.
Jan.31.—-16th.lowest. +333,064 sq.km. above 2010’s average.
Feb.28.—-11th.lowest +116,764 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Mar.31.—-10th.lowest -127,470 sq.km. BELOW 2010’s average
Apr. 30.—-14th.lowest +16,886 sq.km. above 2010’s average
May. 31.—15th lowest +395,097 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Jun. 30.—-10th.lowest +35,744 sq.km above 2010’s average
Jul. 31.—–12th lowest +228,905 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Aug.31.—-11th.lowest +203,902 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Sep.30.—–7th lowest +115,918 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Oct.31.—– 11th lowest, +269,119 sq.km. above 2010’s average
Nov30.——5th lowest, -183,803 sq.km. BELOW 2010’s average
Dec.6------3rd lowest, -307,300 sq.km. BELOW 2010's average
December now dropped to 3rd lowest.
Only 2016 and 2020 below 2022!
Will continue to update here through December.
May be lacking in regularity when the Christmas festivities arrive.
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Post by ratty on Dec 6, 2022 21:28:11 GMT
November month end sea ice extent fell BELOW 2010’s average. Jan.31.—-16th.lowest. +333,064 sq.km. above 2010’s average. Feb.28.—-11th.lowest +116,764 sq.km. above 2010’s average Mar.31.—-10th.lowest -127,470 sq.km. BELOW 2010’s average Apr. 30.—-14th.lowest +16,886 sq.km. above 2010’s average May. 31.—15th lowest +395,097 sq.km. above 2010’s average Jun. 30.—-10th.lowest +35,744 sq.km above 2010’s average Jul. 31.—–12th lowest +228,905 sq.km. above 2010’s average Aug.31.—-11th.lowest +203,902 sq.km. above 2010’s average Sep.30.—–7th lowest +115,918 sq.km. above 2010’s average Oct.31.—– 11th lowest, +269,119 sq.km. above 2010’s average Nov30.——5th lowest, -183,803 sq.km. BELOW 2010’s average Dec.5------3rd lowest, -379,600 sq.km. BELOW 2010's average December now dropped to 3rd lowest. Only 2016 and 2020 below 2022! Will continue to update here through December. May be lacking in regularity when the Christmas festivities arrive. Your avatar has meaning then?  |
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