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Post by nonentropic on Oct 25, 2023 17:26:40 GMT
more detail please but yes a bit over it about 50% up on average precip.
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 8, 2023 22:02:39 GMT
The JMA Has El Niño Collapsing Next Year If a period of global cooling is indeed on the cards then we would expect La Niñas to be the dominate ENSO pattern. Supporting this theory are latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts, which call for a collapsing El Niño next year, dipping below neutral perhaps as early as April, and potentially reentering La Niña territory by next summer:  This JMA forecast looks a bit like the ENSO tracks of SCs 19 and 20 below. And the October 2023 start point for 3.4 will likely be lower.  Climate Change!!! If the backslope of 25 is more like the backslope of 20, winters could be interesting. I remember the 70s around here. Some cold - long winters mixed in the train. The showmen will have their work cut out for them to sell this puppy as totally human driven. And it will become obvious that our inputs to the atmosphere are nowhere close to a dominent driver. And the insanity of cutting our operating fuel mixture from good old carbon to wind/sun combos, which just can't match the high energy content of the old favorites ... for a colder time. The people whose money is on the line appear to be back-tracking on implementing without a grand outpouring of federal cash. The real engineers are going to mutiny at some point and convince the investors that they need to examine the paradigms with a bit of rigor ... and an eye to profits. |
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Astromet
Level 3 Rank
Meanwhile, here in the real world...
Posts: 168
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Post by Astromet on Nov 11, 2023 22:23:21 GMT
This isn't an El Niño. The next one won't arrive until 2031-2032, more or less. Moreover, if you look at the atmosphere right now in early November it does not look like it has historically during other strong El Niños. Take a look as of November 11, 2023, and you will notice that there is an unusual blob of warmth in the western Pacific that is quieting down some of the more classic El Niño symptoms. There’s not much rising air over the eastern Pacific either. Now, during a standard/obvious El Niño, warmer waters in the eastern Pacific heat the air above that induces rising motion. Then, it creates an area of low air pressure, showers and thunderstorms, right? The air, in turn, subsides over the Atlantic. But, that is NOT HAPPENING right now, because at present, the area of ascent over the eastern Pacific is diffuse and meager. It is probable that the western Pacific warm blob, which is out of place, is causing heating and rising motion there and, as we all know, what goes up must come down, some of the air is sinking in the eastern Pacific. It is my view that this current pattern is connected to the triple straight winters of La Niña and is a kind of sluggish La Niña response that has been lingering.  |
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Post by acidohm on Nov 11, 2023 22:43:50 GMT
Cheers Astro
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Post by ratty on Nov 11, 2023 23:20:11 GMT
Astro's matches my forecast: A reluctant Non Niño.  |
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Post by duwayne on Nov 12, 2023 18:27:21 GMT
The MVENSO for September/October has fallen to 0.3.
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Post by acidohm on Nov 12, 2023 20:21:27 GMT
Astro's matches my forecast: A reluctant Non Niño. A STROngly reluctant Non Niňo? |
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 13, 2023 22:55:00 GMT
A comparison of ENSO-Mei and ENSO Region 3.4 by solar cycle. There are differences. However, ENSO3.4 has been running MUCH warmer for whatever reason.
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Post by ratty on Nov 14, 2023 1:56:13 GMT
A comparison of ENSO-Mei and ENSO Region 3.4 by solar cycle. There are differences. However, ENSO3.4 has been running MUCH warmer for whatever reason. This is what NASA shows for the MEI: I'm still plugging for your pay rise, Missouri. |
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Post by douglavers on Nov 17, 2023 2:09:19 GMT
Widespread rain forecast across inland East Coast/central Oz next week.
Grass is still green around Melbourne. Usually burnt brown by now.
This does not really feel like an El Nino.
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Post by Sigurdur on Nov 20, 2023 19:37:49 GMT
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Post by ratty on Nov 22, 2023 22:17:00 GMT
There has been good rain across much of Eastern Australia over the past week; this image I've labelled Non_Nino_East_Oz (BoM radar) ...  An after-effect of the Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai eruption? |
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Post by ratty on Nov 26, 2023 8:03:19 GMT
Flood warnings have been issued for some Western Queensland rivers.
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Post by Sigurdur on Nov 26, 2023 17:18:06 GMT
Hopefully the waters don't wash any Wallabangers away.
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Post by ratty on Nov 26, 2023 22:54:03 GMT
Hopefully the waters don't wash any Wallabangers away. What is a Wallabanger, Sig? |
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