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Post by Sigurdur on Jul 8, 2023 19:11:00 GMT
Agreed
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 8, 2023 19:50:48 GMT
Long way to go to Super El Nino territory, which is what is being presented to the press by whoever ... an additional 2C and 3 years for Nino Region 3.4 to match the backslope El Nino of SC24. But "Hottest Ever" dominates the news cycles. You've got to wonder if any discrete pressure is being applied behind the scenes to those at NOAA who read the Pacific instruments. Data professionals need to hold the line to "whatever the instrumentation says". The fact that "they" are lowering their forecasts is a good sign.
I remember you noting that "they" did the same thing back in 2013? Ten years later you would think that they would have learned something.
This graphic seems to show a westward contraction and cooling from April through June. This SST ... not SSTA.
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Post by acidohm on Jul 8, 2023 20:06:59 GMT
Saw a msm article recently questioning "will el nino arrive UK this weekend?".
I don't need to say more, right....
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 9, 2023 1:20:48 GMT
The SOI sort of tells the same story. The original prediction had a big dose of wishful thinking in it. Not say it can't still go mad but that looks to have a lower probability now. Disappointing for some.
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Post by ratty on Jul 9, 2023 2:00:32 GMT
I would use Mike's nature trick. Quoi? I'm practicing my very poor French. It's the gold standard for deception. |
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 9, 2023 13:18:53 GMT
Quoi? I'm practicing my very poor French. It's the gold standard for deception. Was that a Louie 16th? |
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Post by ratty on Jul 9, 2023 23:08:24 GMT
It's the gold standard for deception. Was that a Louie 16th? More Mann 1st. |
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Post by blustnmtn on Jul 19, 2023 22:54:22 GMT
From JC’s blog: In 2007, two Canadian scientists studying the effects of this cycle on the Pacific coast of North America successfully predicted the occurrence of a major El Niño event in 2015 based on lunar data. Remarkably, their prediction proved accurate. The Earth’s oceans contain a vast mass of cold water beneath a thin layer of warm water, and the limited amount of mixing between them plays a crucial role in our existence. Tides, primarily influenced by changes in the moon’s orbit, are the main force behind this mixing, which has the potential to cool the climate. Keeling, who pioneered CO2 measurements, believed in this theory and predicted a cooling trend for the next decade. The impact of the 18.6-year lunar cycle on climate has been known for some time, but more recent research has revealed its influence on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). judithcurry.com/2023/07/18/the-2015-major-el-nino-was-predicted-years-in-advance-using-a-lunar-cycle/ |
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Post by douglavers on Jul 25, 2023 20:36:20 GMT
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 26, 2023 1:36:00 GMT
wattsupwiththat.com/2023/07/23/ryan-maue-on-hunga-tonga-hunga-haapai-submarine-volcano/This is a good read and against my skepticism of the impact of a cubic mile of water having impact or whatever it seems the stratosphere is very different from the troposphere, in that a very low low density, very stable, and very dry stratosphere can be impacted with much less H2O and for longer, much. We in NZ have had a strange period of weather for two years much different from expectation even with a triple La Nina now moving to an El Nino. Who knows.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 26, 2023 13:32:07 GMT
From JC’s blog: In 2007, two Canadian scientists studying the effects of this cycle on the Pacific coast of North America successfully predicted the occurrence of a major El Niño event in 2015 based on lunar data. Remarkably, their prediction proved accurate. The Earth’s oceans contain a vast mass of cold water beneath a thin layer of warm water, and the limited amount of mixing between them plays a crucial role in our existence. Tides, primarily influenced by changes in the moon’s orbit, are the main force behind this mixing, which has the potential to cool the climate. Keeling, who pioneered CO2 measurements, believed in this theory and predicted a cooling trend for the next decade. The impact of the 18.6-year lunar cycle on climate has been known for some time, but more recent research has revealed its influence on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). judithcurry.com/2023/07/18/the-2015-major-el-nino-was-predicted-years-in-advance-using-a-lunar-cycle/Important article. Magnificent graph. 
This analysis allows us to identify two prominent oscillations: one occurring every 60 years and another every 20 years. In particular, significant climate shifts that cause sudden changes in the climate and ecology of the Pacific, such as the one in 1976 that triggered global warming, coincide with a simultaneous phase change in both oscillations.
Guess what's coming next.
If you look back at other timeseries, e.g., solar cycle 19 (~1950) was large ... but the various index values surrounding it were very different from other large cycles. I need to go back and plot some of these out again.  h
Imagine if many things OTHER than CO2 played a dynamic role.
The ocean plays a critical role in moderating surface temperature variations on our planet. This fact is evident when comparing the greater seasonal temperature variations observed in continental climates compared to oceanic climates. Our existence depends on the lack of significant mixing between a thin layer of warm water, only a few hundred meters thick, on top of an icy cold ocean with an average temperature below 4°C. Even a small increase in vertical mixing could be catastrophic. It is clear, then, that vertical mixing in the ocean has the potential to be a climatic factor. The only two forces that can influence this vertical mixing are the wind and the Moon, as they contribute the necessary mechanical energy to the ocean. The Moon contributes about 4 TW (terawatts) of energy, while the wind contributes about 2 TW.
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Post by code on Jul 26, 2023 14:41:01 GMT
Two Canadian scientists  |
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Post by duwayne on Sept 9, 2023 2:39:08 GMT
Recently, the ENSO focus seems to be almost entirely on ocean temperatures.
When I first learned about ENSO, there was a lot of focus on the overall equatorial weather patterns in the pacific, particular rainfall, which generally accompany the ocean temperature fluctuations along the equator.
The “Multivariate ENSO” (MVENSO) measures both ocean temperatures and the weather. If the event does not match the weather features of an El Nino it is not ranked as an EL Nino, even though temperatures are high in the ENSO area. The Japanese call such events a fake El Nino.
I bring this up because the MVENSO numbers for the current ENSO event are low compared to the NOAA ENSO numbers which are based solely on ocean temperatures. The most recent MVENSO value is 0.4 while the latest ENSO3.4 is much higher at 1.1.
It’s still early, but is it possible that the MVENSO will not meet the definition often used for an El Nino of 5 consecutive periods of readings of 0.5 and above over the next few months while the ENSO3.4 meets that minimum requirement, thus resulting in a government declared El Nino even though it’s a fake El Nino?
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Post by ratty on Sept 9, 2023 2:52:33 GMT
Recently, the ENSO focus seems to be almost entirely on ocean temperatures. When I first learned about ENSO, there was a lot of focus on the overall equatorial weather patterns in the pacific, particular rainfall, which generally accompany the ocean temperature fluctuations along the equator. The “Multivariate ENSO” (MVENSO) measures both ocean temperatures and the weather. If the event does not match the weather features of an El Nino it is not ranked as an EL Nino, even though temperatures are high in the ENSO area. The Japanese call such events a fake El Nino. I bring this up because the MVENSO numbers for the current ENSO event are low compared to the NOAA ENSO numbers which are based solely on ocean temperatures. The most recent MVENSO value is 0.4 while the latest ENSO3.4 is much higher at 1.1. It’s still early, but is it possible that the MVENSO will not meet the definition often used for an El Nino of 5 consecutive periods of readings of 0.5 and above over the next few months while the ENSO3.4 meets that minimum requirement, thus resulting in a government declared El Nino even though it’s a fake El Nino? New classification: Reluctant El Nino. |
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Post by acidohm on Sept 9, 2023 8:29:36 GMT
Astro was very admant that the 2014/15 enso event wasn't el nino...
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