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Post by acidohm on Jun 26, 2021 7:29:13 GMT
![]() Region 1+2 cooling of a bit Attachments:
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 26, 2021 8:14:37 GMT
![]() Region 1+2 cooling of a bit And is that a trace of a negative IOD? Will China be wet again? |
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Post by acidohm on Jun 26, 2021 8:43:31 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 27, 2021 22:05:20 GMT
I wonder if China has "Hunger Stones", and if they have both wet and dry markers. |
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Post by acidohm on Jun 28, 2021 17:22:44 GMT
After recent 1+2 cooling I've been quite interested to see this week's ENSO update. Overall, previously warm Western waters built up which got released east in 2 pulses moving ENSO from Nina to Neutral. Subsurface currently looks overall even or thereabouts, there is no continued growth in warm water or to the west at the surface. Could we be at or close to a tipping point to a downwards temperature trend spreading from the east? As Mr.Missouri's posts on old page showed, were heading to a ballpark period where we could expect this.
I sure hope Astro's prediction is right about this year. I want to ski, but I'm not hopeful sitting here in triple digits.
Can't believe Skykomish is at 103 before noon
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 28, 2021 20:15:47 GMT
After recent 1+2 cooling I've been quite interested to see this week's ENSO update. Overall, previously warm Western waters built up which got released east in 2 pulses moving ENSO from Nina to Neutral. Subsurface currently looks overall even or thereabouts, there is no continued growth in warm water or to the west at the surface. Could we be at or close to a tipping point to a downwards temperature trend spreading from the east? As Mr.Missouri's posts on old page showed, were heading to a ballpark period where we could expect this. I sure hope Astro's prediction is right about this year. I want to ski, but I'm not hopeful sitting here in triple digits.
Can't believe Skykomish is at 103 before noon Focusing in on image number 3. Is there a longer time series of this? This timeseries shows are very quick buildup of warm waters in the Western Pacific Warm Pool. This clashes with my notion (perhaps wrong) that Western Pacific heat accumulates from Eastern Pacific waters warming from the sun as they are pushed westward by strong Easterlies (the Trade Winds). The speed with which the red blob appears seems to counter the slow accumulation theory. Why so fast? And what's the source? Geothermal? Indian Ocean? Other? From the cross-Pacific SST temperatures shown on Climate4you, composit SSTs are published by month for each of the transects. Given normal declining SSTs from west to east, subtracting 160E-80W from 130E-80W gives a general SST measure for the Western Pacific Warm Pool. Figure 2 shows the ebb and flow of heat in the WWP. Discharges during El Nino. Recovers during La Nina. All as expected. Figure 3 shows 3-year monthly values for the WWP and Nino Regions 3 and 4 for the 1996-98 and 2018-May2021 periods. WWP recovery takes 12 months from the El Nino discharge. But, after recovery, Jan-May 2021 are very different. Large decline with no El Nino. WTF? And all of a sudden a fast, big red blob. Repeat WTF? Volcanic? Indian Ocean recharge? OK. ENSO weekly shows an eastward discharge into region 4 that does not show up on the ENSO monthly averages. A mini Nino that is below the +0.5 threshold. See chart 4. Big red blob is still not explained.     |
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Post by acidohm on Jun 28, 2021 21:02:18 GMT
I think you're exactly right about warm water being pushed west.
During a Nina I imagine the essterlies are strong, pushing more water west where it strengthens the warm anomaly.
As these waters slosh back east, the anomaly quickly reduces.
The stronger Nina easterlies cause upwelling off Peruvian coast bringing cooler (nutrient rich) water from the depths, these winds push these cooler waters west showing those typical nina cool patterns (yes I mean that both ways 😎)
Nino westerlies are poorer in nutrients, and the anchovy go hungry.
The Western warm waters are also not only anomalous in temperature, but also height. Sea level raises off Indonesia as a result of the wind pushing it there.
I also imagine seasonal influences during boreal spring reduce the easterlies allowing the gradient to balance out, showing as warmer waters heading east, however conditions are still tipped in favour of Nina which strengthen later in the year developing the cold plume once again.
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 28, 2021 21:44:00 GMT
The slosh slosh cool cool under a weaker sun will slowly cool the tropical Pacific as it continues to release heat to the atmosphere in declining Nino phases in the central-east Pacific. It would be interesting to see similar charts for other Ninas.  |
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Post by acidohm on Jun 29, 2021 6:10:13 GMT
The slosh slosh cool cool under a weaker sun will slowly cool the tropical Pacific as it continues to release heat to the atmosphere in declining Nino phases in the central-east Pacific. It would be interesting to see similar charts for other Ninas. The earliest documents I can find atm would be this... www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/CDB_Archive_html/bulletin_082010/Circa 2010. It seems we are lucky with the well presented information we have now. Attachments:
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Post by acidohm on Jun 29, 2021 6:23:02 GMT
West bound cool anomalies are starting to impact 3.4. Attachments:
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Post by acidohm on Jun 29, 2021 14:58:04 GMT
![]() Region 1+2 cooling of a bit And is that a trace of a negative IOD? Will China be wet again? IOD has been -ve for 5 weeks.... www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ |
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Post by Sigurdur on Jun 29, 2021 16:49:23 GMT
I like that link!!
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 1, 2021 5:59:41 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 1, 2021 8:25:00 GMT
Following June ENSO conditions, UAH tropics and global troposphere anomalies for June should be steady or up slightly before dropping again into fall and winter. How deep? We need a poll.
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Post by duwayne on Jul 1, 2021 14:33:05 GMT
Missouri, my link to the historical weekly ENSO data isn't working. Do you have one that works?
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