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Post by ratty on Sept 4, 2022 23:44:51 GMT
Nice tribute to ONJ.  |
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Post by Sigurdur on Sept 5, 2022 0:41:53 GMT
Nice tribute to ONJ. You noticed that too!! Potentially, only us "seasoned" folks would understand. |
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Post by ratty on Sept 20, 2022 21:34:49 GMT
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Post by nonentropic on Sept 21, 2022 1:13:17 GMT
got back into their work again and good rains for the central "dry" sector of Australia
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Post by ratty on Sept 21, 2022 1:23:27 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Sept 25, 2022 14:17:40 GMT
According to this article the Tonga eruption might be causing some warming. I've been surprised that the continued ENSO conditions haven't cooled things a bit more.
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Post by ratty on Sept 25, 2022 22:53:32 GMT
According to this article the Tonga eruption might be causing some warming. I've been surprised that the continued ENSO conditions haven't cooled things a bit more.
Regarding warming, we still haven't seen a 30°C day and none is predicted thru to the end of September .... unusual. I'm wondering about the heavy rainfall we've seen over much of the continent since the start of the year .... wondering how much a part the Tonga eruption (aerosols & water vapour) may have played in conjunction with the persistent La Nina and the negative IOD. Australian rainfall totals for the last weekLast week, a nearby location had 317mm in 24 hours. Other samples: 059045 MELDRUM (COOLAWARRAH) 392.0 059152 LOWANNA (LOWANNA ROAD) 377.0 040607 SPRINGBROOK ROAD 317.0 059139 NANA GLEN (COWLING CLOSE) 255.8 059128 MAJORS CREEK (MOPARRABAH (PARRABEL CREEK 243.0 059124 NYMBOIDA (NYMBOIDA RIVER) 237.0 040335 MT TAMBORINE ALERT 227.0 |
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 26, 2022 2:04:09 GMT
According to this article the Tonga eruption might be causing some warming. I've been surprised that the continued ENSO conditions haven't cooled things a bit more.
Below are two timeseries charts showing monthly ENSO-ONI anomalies, UAH global and tropics LT anomalies and normalized sunspots. Chart 2 for Pinatubo shows that UAH temperatures declined consistently for 5 or 6 months starting perhaps 1 month after the eruption. This was during a period of rising ENSO values, which would normally be accompanied (with a lag) with a rising UAH LT anomaly. The is the best (and perhaps only) example of UAH LT anomalies falling during a rising ENSO period. Total UAH decline of approx -0.8C.
Chart 1 shows Hunga-Tonga. Not nearly as clear ... but there is NO large distinctive drop in UAH LT temperatures following the eruption. The primary UAH component has been upward ... perhaps +0.2C. But with a large drop in June. This bears watching.
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Post by duwayne on Sept 26, 2022 14:17:37 GMT
According to this article the Tonga eruption might be causing some warming. I've been surprised that the continued ENSO conditions haven't cooled things a bit more.
Below are two timeseries charts showing monthly ENSO-ONI anomalies, UAH global and tropics LT anomalies and normalized sunspots. Chart 2 for Pinatubo shows that UAH temperatures declined consistently for 5 or 6 months starting perhaps 1 month after the eruption. This was during a period of rising ENSO values, which would normally be accompanied (with a lag) with a rising UAH LT anomaly. The is the best (and perhaps only) example of UAH LT anomalies falling during a rising ENSO period. Total UAH decline of approx -0.8C.
Chart 1 shows Hunga-Tonga. Not nearly as clear ... but there is NO large distinctive drop in UAH LT temperatures following the eruption. The primary UAH component has been upward ... perhaps +0.2C. But with a large drop in June. This bears watching.
Hunga Tonga was very small compared to Pinatubo, hence not much cooling effect. However, since Hunga Tonga was underwater, it generated massive amounts of geenhouse gas water vapor, hence the possible warming effect. Also, since the water vapor was injected high into the atmosphere, it will take a while to dissipate. |
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 26, 2022 16:55:59 GMT
And it will make an interesting follow-on.
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 6, 2022 0:45:01 GMT
The Pulse of the Tropical Pacific - Ocean and Lower Troposphere (2016-2022)
I want someone to show me how ENSO doesn't drive Lower-Troposphere temperatures.
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 6, 2022 20:58:01 GMT
How La Ninas affect N American snowfall.
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Post by ratty on Oct 7, 2022 1:01:05 GMT
How La Ninas affect N American snowfall. Dramatic Fort Myers footage a bonus there.  |
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 7, 2022 21:07:35 GMT
No warm pulses on the way although the west appears to be heating up.  |
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 21, 2022 17:45:39 GMT
Short article on third-year consequitive La Nina
"we should be aware of the risk of intense cold surges in Eurasia, which could also produce more cold extremes either in eastern or northeastern China,” Fang warns".
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