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Post by duwayne on May 18, 2022 14:47:42 GMT
For the last few years, I have ben looking at the relationships between ENSO and UAH Lower Troposphere temperature anomalies. I repeat a chart posted here before showing how UAH moves in relation to ENSO. A simplistic thesis is that the sun heats the Oceans and the oceans heat the atmosphere. Thus UAH runs with and lags ENSO, which is the only long-running measure of the tropical oceans that I have.
The second chart shows ENSO Region 3 anomalies plotted against UAH Tropical Ocean anomalies. In general, UAH tropical ocean anomalies follow ENSO temperature anomalies with a lag. There are differences between the two cycles. ENSO region 3 La Nina temperatures for SC24 were colder than SC25 during the first cycle. This reversed during the second cycle ... and the upcoming third SC25 cycle may be colder yet. So far, the UAH atmospheric tropical ocean anomalies have not been nearly as cold in SC25 as they were in SC24. We will se what a third cycle brings.
The third composite set of four charts shows various data plotted across the first 37 months of solar cycles 24 and 25 to compare similarities and differences between these two cycles.
Observations: Top right chart shows that the SC25 UAH tropical ocean anomalies have been warmer than SC24. Lower right chart shows that the most recent SC25 anomalies for ENSO regions 1+2 and 3 are much lower than during SC24. Lower left chart shows an interesting change in the UAH LT anomalies for the Northern Hemisphere oceans versus the Southern Hemisphere. During SC24, the Southern Hemisphere UAH anomalies
were warmer than the Northern hemisphere oceans. THIS WAS REVERSED during the first La Nina pulse of SC25. The current ENSO region 1+2 values are colder than they have been since the
1970s.
Curious as to what is continuing to hold (so far) UAH anomalies up.
   Any predictions? |
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Post by missouriboy on May 21, 2022 0:05:40 GMT
Predictions : These are ENSO region deviations from monthly mean for the first 3 years of Solar cycles 20, 24 & 25. This is as cold or colder than SC20, and the pulse down appears to have begun again. Month 36 is December. I predict that Nino 3 will be at or below SC24 ... possibly by as much as -0.5. I am surprised that the UAH troposphere anomaly is holding up so well. Hasn't dropped as much as in previous episodes. Something is holding the tropical troposphere up.  |
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Post by missouriboy on May 22, 2022 4:10:07 GMT
So far no drought in Middle Earth. Above normal precip. so far. But it's not summer yet. Don't ditch the rain coat Code.
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Post by missouriboy on May 22, 2022 4:38:38 GMT
A slightly different view.  |
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Post by ratty on May 24, 2022 21:36:03 GMT
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Post by nonentropic on May 25, 2022 1:46:38 GMT
Two things this La Nina is not dead and as the months pass with the SOI probably as high as ever, possibly higher, we may see a very extended period of recorded cooling. The point is that a La Nina from what I understand is as much a warming event due the tropical ocean exposure to sunshine but reads as a cooling event.
The El Nino does the opposite as we are really witnessing the shortcomings of measuring the Atmospheric temperature doing a clever averaging then declaring the earths temperature as being up or down.
I believe a global average temperature should be a record of the highly mobile fluids being water and gas rather than 1% of the system and making ludicrous authoritative proclamations.
Oh and secondly Ratty is not a bot I checked.
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Post by ratty on May 25, 2022 1:49:17 GMT
Two things this La Nina is not dead and as the months pass with the SOI probably as high as ever, possibly higher, we may see a very extended period of recorded cooling. The point is that a La Nina from what I understand is as much a warming event due the tropical ocean exposure to sunshine but reads as a cooling event. The El Nino does the opposite as we are really witnessing the shortcomings of measuring the Atmospheric temperature doing a clever averaging then declaring the earths temperature as being up or down. I believe a global average temperature should be a record of the highly mobile fluids being water and gas rather than 1% of the system and making ludicrous authoritative proclamations. Oh and secondly Ratty is not a bot I checked. Of course not and thanks again for the coffee and chat.  |
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Post by missouriboy on May 27, 2022 0:45:58 GMT
Another video by Jim Steele (Big 5 Reasons ...), previously posted just upstream. |
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Post by missouriboy on May 27, 2022 1:12:09 GMT
The Big 5 Causes of Climate Change. Part 3 was posted above. I am hunting down the other 4 and will post as found. Parts 1 & 2 & 4 are immediately below. Part 1
Part 2
Part 4
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Post by ratty on Jun 2, 2022 21:28:28 GMT
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 3, 2022 1:12:08 GMT
Amazingly the winds over NZ and eastern Australia have swung quite strongly from NE to SW with cold air also.
Does the SOI signal a shift or is it driven by the wind direction moving heavy cold air or warm light air around.
Snow over a lot of Australia and moving into NZ in days, wax time for the skis.
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 3, 2022 6:07:43 GMT
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Post by code on Jun 7, 2022 16:55:22 GMT
Wow! What a difference a few years makes.
Today vs 3 years ago
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 7, 2022 18:04:20 GMT
to be reasonable it is a La Nina but that said very big shift
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 8, 2022 5:45:13 GMT
to be reasonable it is a La Nina but that said very big shift AND from the South to the North. Opposite to ~1976? A Southern Hemisphere conspiracy?  |
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