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Post by missouriboy on Jun 14, 2022 19:33:12 GMT
End of May 2022. Nino Region 1+2 24-Mth average is now lower than any 2-year period since 1976. I interpret this to mean colder water infusing the equatorial waters from the S. Pacific.  |
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 17, 2022 8:18:36 GMT
The mouths that roar are trying to explain how this decline in sea surface temperatures is just temporary, and the hidden heat in the oceans (due to Charles Oscar) will come roaring back shortly. The resident climate genius at Axios writes ...
Of note: With each week that La Niña remains, the less likely it becomes that 2022 will set a new global temperature record. The cooler ocean waters in the Pacific tend to keep somewhat of a lid on global average temperatures.
However, the world's oceans overall are continuing to take up extra heat from an atmosphere altered by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, ensuring that more heat will be released into the atmosphere as soon as this La Niña ends.
Typically, El Niño events, which feature warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, provide an extra boost to global average temperatures and lead to record warmest years.
May was the ninth-warmest such month on record globally, NOAA found. It would likely have been even warmer without La Niña's influence.
The agency predicts 2022 is "almost certain" to wind up among the top 10 warmest years. However, it's currently running in sixth place.
They fail to understand (accept) that Earth's atmospheric temperatures are largely driven by the oceans and that the ocean's surficial heat reservoir is largely driven by the Sun. I state this as a general truth which has many complexities of different magnitudes ... but Charles Oscar (as an input from human activity) is not a significant driver of any of them. I am waiting for someone to falsify any of these general statements.
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Astromet
Level 3 Rank
Meanwhile, here in the real world...
Posts: 169
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Post by Astromet on Jun 19, 2022 12:06:39 GMT
The mouths that roar are trying to explain how this decline in sea surface temperatures is just temporary, and the hidden heat in the oceans (due to Charles Oscar) will come roaring back shortly. The resident climate genius at Axios writes ...
Of note: With each week that La Niña remains, the less likely it becomes that 2022 will set a new global temperature record. The cooler ocean waters in the Pacific tend to keep somewhat of a lid on global average temperatures.
However, the world's oceans overall are continuing to take up extra heat from an atmosphere altered by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, ensuring that more heat will be released into the atmosphere as soon as this La Niña ends.
Typically, El Niño events, which feature warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, provide an extra boost to global average temperatures and lead to record warmest years.
May was the ninth-warmest such month on record globally, NOAA found. It would likely have been even warmer without La Niña's influence.
The agency predicts 2022 is "almost certain" to wind up among the top 10 warmest years. However, it's currently running in sixth place.
They fail to understand (accept) that Earth's atmospheric temperatures are largely driven by the oceans and that the ocean's surficial heat reservoir is largely driven by the Sun. I state this as a general truth which has many complexities of different magnitudes ... but Charles Oscar (as an input from human activity) is not a significant driver of any of them. I am waiting for someone to falsify any of these general statements.
This tells the story of the cooling and contraction of the Earth's atmosphere under an increasingly quiescent Sun...  |
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Post by flearider on Jun 19, 2022 13:46:11 GMT
The mouths that roar are trying to explain how this decline in sea surface temperatures is just temporary, and the hidden heat in the oceans (due to Charles Oscar) will come roaring back shortly. The resident climate genius at Axios writes ...
Of note: With each week that La Niña remains, the less likely it becomes that 2022 will set a new global temperature record. The cooler ocean waters in the Pacific tend to keep somewhat of a lid on global average temperatures.
However, the world's oceans overall are continuing to take up extra heat from an atmosphere altered by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, ensuring that more heat will be released into the atmosphere as soon as this La Niña ends.
Typically, El Niño events, which feature warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, provide an extra boost to global average temperatures and lead to record warmest years.
May was the ninth-warmest such month on record globally, NOAA found. It would likely have been even warmer without La Niña's influence.
The agency predicts 2022 is "almost certain" to wind up among the top 10 warmest years. However, it's currently running in sixth place.
They fail to understand (accept) that Earth's atmospheric temperatures are largely driven by the oceans and that the ocean's surficial heat reservoir is largely driven by the Sun. I state this as a general truth which has many complexities of different magnitudes ... but Charles Oscar (as an input from human activity) is not a significant driver of any of them. I am waiting for someone to falsify any of these general statements.
This tells the story of the cooling and contraction of the Earth's atmosphere under an increasingly quiescent Sun... but the gov will white wash this to show more red .. or even blank out the blue |
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 2, 2022 3:07:14 GMT
Quasi-60year Cycles in the ENSO data? This started out to be a simple little project. I wanted to compare the ramp-up phases of solar cycle to our currently evolving one. So I decided to look at ENSO values for the available regions in the first 3 years of solar cycles 19 to 25. There are seven of them from 1950 to 2022 for which we have good data. So I quantified 3-year ENSO region anomalies from the 1981-2010 base ENSO period and compared them. I took Non's suggestion and turned the monthly data into seasons. The x-axis labels are still solar cycles and nino regions. For reference, the solar cycle start dates are listed bekow. SC19 - 4/54 SC20 - 10/64 SC21 - 3/76 SC22 - 9/86 SC23 - 8/96 SC24 - 12/08 SC25 - 12/19 The four charts below show ENSO deviations from the 1981-2010 base period that are convex over the 7-cycle, 68 year period for all seasons and all regions. A simple interpretation would be that La Nina ruled at each end of the period: SC19-20 and SC24-25. Duwayne asked if this could represent the suggested quasi-60-year cycle in the tropical Pacific. It's a problem. Reliable data before 1950 is thin to non-existent. It occurred to me that Southern Oscillation (SOI) data, which goes back to the 1870s, and consistently mirrors mid-Pacific ENSO values, might be used to extend the series. Check out the 1950-2022 graph (4th one down) for the fit between Reversed-SOI data and Nino region 3.4 data between 1950 and 2022. The base period used for the stats are shown by the horizontal bars. So, I substituted the SOI data for the ENSO data. Check out the results in the third image down. Same general convex curve between 1950 and 2022. The SOI data go back to the 1870s. So if there is another cycle hiding there, perhaps it will fall out. So I went back 6 more cycles from 1954 to SC13 that started in 1890. Plugging in the the SOI data yields the results in Figure 5 below ... 1890 to 1960 looks very similar to 1950 to 2022.
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Post by ratty on Jul 2, 2022 10:09:00 GMT
Missouri, you are exhibiting the Topsy Syndrome.  |
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 2, 2022 14:14:51 GMT
Missouri, you are exhibiting the Topsy Syndrome.  Is that the moment, just after you have stepped out on a ledge, and right before you fall off? |
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Post by duwayne on Jul 2, 2022 15:56:01 GMT
Quasi-60year Cycles in the ENSO data? This started out to be a simple little project. I wanted to compare the ramp-up phases of solar cycle to our currently evolving one. So I decided to look at ENSO values for the available regions in the first 3 years of solar cycles 19 to 25. There are seven of them from 1950 to 2022 for which we have good data. So I quantified 3-year ENSO region anomalies from the 1981-2010 base ENSO period and compared them. I took Non's suggestion and turned the monthly data into seasons. The x-axis labels are still solar cycles and nino regions. For reference, the solar cycle start dates are listed bekow. SC19 - 4/54 SC20 - 10/64 SC21 - 3/76 SC22 - 9/86 SC23 - 8/96 SC24 - 12/08 SC25 - 12/19 The four charts below show ENSO deviations from the 1981-2010 base period that are convex over the 7-cycle, 68 year period for all seasons and all regions. A simple interpretation would be that La Nina ruled at each end of the period: SC19-20 and SC24-25. Duwayne asked if this could represent the suggested quasi-60-year cycle in the tropical Pacific. It's a problem. Reliable data before 1950 is thin to non-existent. It occurred to me that Southern Oscillation (SOI) data, which goes back to the 1870s, and consistently mirrors mid-Pacific ENSO values, might be used to extend the series. Check out the 1950-2022 graph (4th one down) for the fit between Reversed-SOI data and Nino region 3.4 data between 1950 and 2022. The base period used for the stats are shown by the horizontal bars. So, I substituted the SOI data for the ENSO data. Check out the results in the third image down. Same general convex curve between 1950 and 2022. The SOI data go back to the 1870s. So if there is another cycle hiding there, perhaps it will fall out. So I went back 6 more cycles from 1954 to SC13 that started in 1890. Plugging in the the SOI data yields the results in Figure 5 below ... 1890 to 1960 looks very similar to 1950 to 2022.
Missouriboy, excellent work. Sounds like the makings for a PHD thesis. "The Quasi 60-Year Cycle in the SOI/Enso and Why this Causes Global Warming to Be Overstated." Actually you'll need to cut the last part off if you want to get any funding. |
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 2, 2022 19:07:25 GMT
Quasi-60year Cycles in the ENSO data? This started out to be a simple little project. I wanted to compare the ramp-up phases of solar cycle to our currently evolving one. So I decided to look at ENSO values for the available regions in the first 3 years of solar cycles 19 to 25. There are seven of them from 1950 to 2022 for which we have good data. So I quantified 3-year ENSO region anomalies from the 1981-2010 base ENSO period and compared them. I took Non's suggestion and turned the monthly data into seasons. The x-axis labels are still solar cycles and nino regions. For reference, the solar cycle start dates are listed bekow. SC19 - 4/54 SC20 - 10/64 SC21 - 3/76 SC22 - 9/86 SC23 - 8/96 SC24 - 12/08 SC25 - 12/19 The four charts below show ENSO deviations from the 1981-2010 base period that are convex over the 7-cycle, 68 year period for all seasons and all regions. A simple interpretation would be that La Nina ruled at each end of the period: SC19-20 and SC24-25. Duwayne asked if this could represent the suggested quasi-60-year cycle in the tropical Pacific. It's a problem. Reliable data before 1950 is thin to non-existent. It occurred to me that Southern Oscillation (SOI) data, which goes back to the 1870s, and consistently mirrors mid-Pacific ENSO values, might be used to extend the series. Check out the 1950-2022 graph (4th one down) for the fit between Reversed-SOI data and Nino region 3.4 data between 1950 and 2022. The base period used for the stats are shown by the horizontal bars. So, I substituted the SOI data for the ENSO data. Check out the results in the third image down. Same general convex curve between 1950 and 2022. The SOI data go back to the 1870s. So if there is another cycle hiding there, perhaps it will fall out. So I went back 6 more cycles from 1954 to SC13 that started in 1890. Plugging in the the SOI data yields the results in Figure 5 below ... 1890 to 1960 looks very similar to 1950 to 2022.
Missouriboy, excellent work. Sounds like the makings for a PHD thesis. "The Quasi 60-Year Cycle in the SOI/Enso and Why this Causes Global Warming to Be Overstated." Actually you'll need to cut the last part off if you want to get any funding. In my original post, I inserted the 1890-1960 SOI deviation chart twice. The third chart should have been the 1950-1922 SOI deviation chart. This has been corrected. It does not change my initial assessment.
The next step is a rigorous attempt to falsify my assessment by changing the 3-year base periods over which the calculations are made. The "typical" solar cycle is preceded by both an El Nino and a La Nina. Sometimes, the El Nino occurs (wholly or partially) before the official solar cycle start date. Thus, an analysis period starting at the "official" solar cycle start month may sometimes exclude positive ENSO inputs. The same may be true for arbitrarily short analysis periods.
A first attempt at lengthening the analysis period to 5 years, which extends across more of the solar cycle high period, found no real change in the results.
I think you're right. It would make a good Ph.D thesis topic. Would have to carefully choose your guardian professor.  But already been there and done that as a "vacation" between parts one and two of my professional career. What a joy that was. The University of Florida funded it by paying me (a pittance) to teach lecture classes for tenured faculty temporarily on leave. It was in the mid-1990s, when the internet, high-speed workstations and Charles Oscar's Black Shirts were taking over the World. The latter are now aging eco-warriors desperately trying to protect whatever nest eggs and reputations they have acquired. I think they will mostly fail. Hard to juggle science and fanaticism. |
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 3, 2022 14:03:56 GMT
Looking decidedly cold out there. And the Pacific circulation pattern seems to be decidedly fixed out of the Southeast Pacific. If there is a quasi-60Year cycle in the oceans, then (as posted before) this pattern seems to be replacing that of 30+ years ago when the cold-water inflows to La Nina were coming decidedly out of the Northeast Pacific. See January 1, 1999 image below. What goes around, comes around.
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Post by Sigurdur on Jul 3, 2022 22:12:47 GMT
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Post by Sigurdur on Jul 4, 2022 16:56:27 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 5, 2022 15:41:13 GMT
The solar sequence for cycles 11-13 look very much like cycles 23-25 in terms of placement and the Reverse-SOI, which is the proxy for ENSO beyond 1950. Although ENSO 1877-78 may look "great" in other indicators, I have to note that (in SOI terms) it looks very similar to SOI 1887-88 after SC12 and 1896-97 after SC13. And we are looking at 1890 ss the start of a quasi-60-year cycle The ENSO event after SC23 is not as large as 1877-78, but the 2015-16 event looks comparable in magnitude to the 1887-1888 event, even if placed closer to the peak of SC23. We note that SC13 was the resurgent start of the most recent solar maximum. SC25, at best, will likely only match (more or less) SC24. If Big Sol is the driver of the tropical hot tub, then "things" may become decidedly cooler.
You will also notice the placement of historically notorius North American winters in conjunction with the largest La Nina events as defined by SOI in the SC11-13 sequence. You will also notice placement and magnitude of SOI-defined La Nina in the lead-up to this coming winter. Will stored heat save our sorry butts? The priesthood of Charles Oscar's temple are wildly waving their arms.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 5, 2022 22:30:45 GMT
While we are looking at quasi-Sixty Year Cycles, lets put the IOD into perspective. It sloshes back and forth in a counter-ENSO mode. When ENSO is high, IOD is low. And the opposite, a cold eastern Pacific is coupled with a warmer than normal IOD. IOD has become more positive over our instrumental time period. ENSO is higher during high solar cycles while IOD appears higher during low solar cycles. The ENSO gravity waves move warm east. The IOD records a westward shift of warm water westward across the Indian Ocean. ENSO's opi-polar brother. You can see it occur as steps in chart #2. One at our SC19 (1954) cycle shift. An extreme drop and rebound. Perhaps another about 1910 with at rebound out of the 1880s and 90s. And another large positive shift about 1990 ... at the start of the new ENSO cool down.  
IDO smooths out into cycles in the longer-term (61-mth running, centered averages.
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 5, 2022 22:56:14 GMT
IOD looks to be rising over a century or more with a random walk around that.
The last spike is impressive. Is this the longest data run of data you could maybe argue it goes with the temperature change somewhat.
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But already been there and done that as a "vacation" between parts one and two of my professional career. What a joy that was. The University of Florida funded it by paying me (a pittance) to teach lecture classes for tenured faculty temporarily on leave. It was in the mid-1990s, when the internet, high-speed workstations and Charles Oscar's Black Shirts were taking over the World. The latter are now aging eco-warriors desperately trying to protect whatever nest eggs and reputations they have acquired. I think they will mostly fail. Hard to juggle science and fanaticism.
