|
|
Post by nonentropic on Mar 27, 2022 22:34:31 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Mar 28, 2022 0:16:46 GMT
AMOs certainly stand out. |
|
|
|
Post by nonentropic on Mar 28, 2022 0:29:53 GMT
I think this is a big result and nails it.
I struggle to copy and paste onto this format but in a nutshell there is a cyclic component but actually its about the flux that prevents the galactic particles nucleating the clouds. Amazing stuff really no model just observation and data.
|
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Mar 29, 2022 2:25:18 GMT
The latest ENSO-ONI and PDO. ENSO is a measure of Normalized SSTAs across the Central and Eastern Topical Pacific Ocean (excluding the Western Warm Pool), while the PDO is a spatial distribution measure of warm waters between the NE and NW Pacific Ocean. A positive PDO indicates more warm water in the NE. There are long blocks of negative PDOs during periods of low solar activity. PDOs have been lower during the 3-cycle downturn since 1997, than they were during the 1-cycle downturn from 1960-1975. Large ENSO events do not always result in strongly positive PDOs, but blocks of strong solar cycles (1976 to 1997) do. Of course, that is a sample of one. The PDO is currently the lowest it has been since 1955, exceeding the low values in 2011-12. 
|
|
|
|
Post by ratty on Mar 29, 2022 8:12:32 GMT
The latest ENSO-ONI and PDO. ENSO is a measure of Normalized SSTAs across the Central and Eastern Topical Pacific Ocean (excluding the Western Warm Pool), while the PDO is a spatial distribution measure of warm waters between the NE and NW Pacific Ocean. A positive PDO indicates more warm water in the NE. There are long blocks of negative PDOs during periods of low solar activity. PDOs have been lower during the 3-cycle downturn since 1997, than they were during the 1-cycle downturn from 1960-1975. Large ENSO events do not always result in strongly positive PDOs, but blocks of strong solar cycles (1976 to 1997) do. Of course, that is a sample of one. The PDO is currently the lowest it has been since 1955, exceeding the low values in 2011-12. Prediction? |
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Mar 29, 2022 22:47:41 GMT
The AMO was negative in the late 1960s and early-mid 1970s (our last single-cycle minima -SC20). Many cold winters in that set. When the current AMO goes negative, I would expect, at minimum, something similar or worse.
|
|
|
|
Post by nonentropic on Mar 29, 2022 23:00:52 GMT
Is the AMO going negative. It's kind of hanging up there for ages
|
|
|
|
Post by blustnmtn on Mar 30, 2022 12:11:30 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Mar 30, 2022 14:41:23 GMT
Not to mention that the AMO inconveniently straddles that latitude where the NAD separates from the main portion of the gyre ... and, is thus a composite statistic. We have noted large NAD changes in recent years that have not yet dragged the AMO statistic down. What happens above 45 North in the Atlantic is different than what happens south of 45 North. |
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Apr 1, 2022 18:13:54 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Sigurdur on Apr 3, 2022 5:13:42 GMT
April 1st 2014 eh? I looked at the plot, thought huh??? Good one Acid!! |
|
|
|
Post by nonentropic on Apr 7, 2022 3:29:29 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by blustnmtn on Apr 7, 2022 9:36:56 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by ratty on Apr 7, 2022 12:08:11 GMT
Glen & Fido, cover your eyes. Predictions being what they are, that sounds like good news.  |
|
|
|
Post by blustnmtn on Apr 7, 2022 12:17:23 GMT
Glen & Fido, cover your eyes. Predictions being what they are, that sounds like good news.  It helps that every "fish storm" that no one would know existed before the satellite era gets named. If the "calculated" wind speeds touch the tropical storm level they get named. I don't know how they can possibly determine the storm's gender though  |
|
.
.
