ENSO 21-22

[missouriboy]

I note that the coldness of La Nina 2020 has occurred further east, showing region 4 higher (warmer) than region 3 for SC 25 versus SC 24 (Chart 1).  I note also that region 1+2 has "led" the major region 3 downturns during SC25 ... and that this coldness has continued in March (Chart 2).  Chart 3 shows that region 1+2 for SC25 looks more like the progression for low Solar Cycle 20 in the 1960s-70s.  Will be interesting to see how this progresses, as what happens in 1+2 generally shows up in 3.  If this continues, it might suggest a larger cold inflow from the SE Pacific.  Each line in this chart starts at the beginning month of the Cycle, and I had to move SC25 over by 12 months to get it in line with the SC20 initial drop.  This is also in line with the SC24 drop ... but not SC23, which had a long El Nino phase.

[Sigurdur]

[missouriboy]

So ... who knows something about the lunar gravitational waves?

Mar 20, 2022 16:57:43 GMT Sigurdur said:

[Sigurdur]

Astro?

[acidohm]

It seems to me enso is behaving quite oddly.

Nina often starts as a cold easterly and spreads west.

Nino starts as a warm westerly and spreads east.


Hence the idea of sloshing, one way to the other

At the moments, warmth is rising in the East, but cold central to west. If one takes the signals from the east it seems the cold source is cutoff, but there's only cool where the warm is sourced from (or at least in enso 4, as far west as is observed for enso conditions)

This just seems odd??








In fact.. as I review the images, it does seem like a failed attempt at raising enso to neutral?

Warm water moving east has been cutoff by upwelling. The momentum of warmth has made it to enso 1+2 and 3 where its bouancy has allowed it to surface raising surface temp anomalies. This doesn't mean upwelling isn't occurring in these regions, just that that's positively reinforcing the surface trajectory of the warm influx.

[acidohm]

I'm wondering if my scribbling makes any sense?

[nonentropic]

Acid the standout is 1964 through to 1977 in fact you could argue for 2005 through not is a series 2016 being a departure possibly.

Acid your trends look interesting but what is in front of us the SOI continues to run solid positive.

www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[missouriboy]

Yes, this is very odd.  I was looking through the time series since 1950 and cannot find a similar event of Nino 4 going cold as Nino 3 and 1+2 were warming.  We seem to be transposing from a eastern-centered La Nina to a western-centered one?  Where is all that cold water off the south and east of Japan coming from - going to?  It has been spreading recently.  We need some ARGO data, but no recent is forthcoming.

I take that back ... there is a short one at the end of the first Nina downturn in January 2021.

[nonentropic]

Very different from recent years past.

Look at Med very cold. friends at Bodrum Turkey its cold for a hot place and it has been persistently above for years is this a big shift or just the wobble between seasons.

Could the La Nina go again its hardly going neutral in the Pacific, cold of west US.

[acidohm]

[ratty]

[missouriboy]

And the tropical ocean in general.

[ratty]

Undersea mountains stir up currents critical to Earth's climate

[Sigurdur]

Interesting Ratty!!

[blustnmtn]

Mar 26, 2022 23:40:08 GMT ratty said:

Undersea mountains stir up currents critical to Earth's climate

I added a link to this in the “active geology of earth as an input to climate” topic too.  Thanks Ratty!