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Post by missouriboy on Sept 25, 2023 20:58:46 GMT
QBO has behaved a bit odd last couple phases. The above article prompted me to check progress as I hadn't for months (years??)  The last 2 positive phases started to oscillate negative, before reverting to positive again leaving a notch in the peak. Not seen before but now its done it twice! Great find. Interpretation anyone? |
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Post by blustnmtn on Sept 25, 2023 21:29:08 GMT
QBO has behaved a bit odd last couple phases. The above article prompted me to check progress as I hadn't for months (years??) The last 2 positive phases started to oscillate negative, before reverting to positive again leaving a notch in the peak. Not seen before but now its done it twice! Great find. Interpretation anyone? From Wikipedia: “The first significant observed deviation from the normal QBO since its discovery in early 1950s was noted beginning in February 2016, when the transition to easterly winds was disrupted by a new band of westerly winds that formed unexpectedly. The lack of a reliable QBO cycle deprives forecasters of a valuable tool. Since the QBO has a strong influence on the North Atlantic Oscillation and thereby north European weather, scientists speculated that the coming winter could be warmer and stormier in that region.[9][10][11]NASA scientists have been researching to test if the extremely strong 2014–2016 El Niño, climate change, or some other factor might be involved. They are trying to determine whether this is more of a once-in-a-generation event or a sign of the changing climate.[12]” So it’s obviously climate change even though we just started QBO data in the ‘50’s and we know the sun can’t do it😳 |
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Post by acidohm on Sept 26, 2023 4:44:47 GMT
The synopsis to this paper is interesting enough... www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00323-7These diagrams provide some context, note the inclusion of volcanos....  However...before hunga tonga is invoked, why previous pattern deflection and no signal from pinutabo for example? |
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Post by nonentropic on Sept 26, 2023 5:25:13 GMT
quite a different type of volcano. Stat water very rare.
Having said that was it material, who knows.
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 26, 2023 18:46:25 GMT
The synopsis to this paper is interesting enough... www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00323-7These diagrams provide some context, note the inclusion of volcanos.... However...before hunga tonga is invoked, why previous pattern deflection and no signal from pinutabo for example? And if you compare geomagnetic activity? The QBO is stated as only going back to 1953 ... but the one I have goes back to 1948 and if you compare geomagnetic measurements, it seems to fit. Maybe we are on that ~60-year pulse that shows itself in other indicators that flip at a similar date. QBO seems to have flipped hemispheres? Climate shift to the South Pacific? Antarctica warming ... Arctic re-freezing? Warm water exiting the Indian Ocean east ... and drifts south? An opposite to 1976 and on? Might wanna buy that little place in Chili.   |
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 26, 2023 20:25:35 GMT
Two of our Quasi-Sixty-Year cycles then?  Maybe Asro's God Awful, terrible winter was only one winter off. Here anyway. Just for interest... In UK, our September warmth (HEAT!!!) was last seen on 3 occasion, late 1800s and 1911. Yes, its taken 120 years to best historic September records. See what the sun was doing during those hot times...  |
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 27, 2023 22:27:38 GMT
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Post by code on Sept 28, 2023 23:48:51 GMT
Mount Rainier National Park
1d ·
This Sunrise sign is moving further into winter hibernation.
NPS photo taken 9/27/2023 ~pw
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Post by acidohm on Sept 29, 2023 4:49:52 GMT
You gotta love a model flip 😄
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 29, 2023 15:45:31 GMT
2012 was the most recent year we saw below freezing temps in the first 2 weeks of October. Same point on SC24 ... which also had a dry summer. I'm sure it's just a coincidence. I'm re-locating to the Yucatan for the winter. |
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 29, 2023 20:50:51 GMT
2012 was the most recent year we saw below freezing temps in the first 2 weeks of October. Same point on SC24 ... which also had a dry summer. I'm sure it's just a coincidence. I'm re-locating to the Yucatan for the winter. It's not the Yucatan but the Gulf Coast has been pretty warm lately... |
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Sept 29, 2023 22:45:32 GMT
2012 was the most recent year we saw below freezing temps in the first 2 weeks of October. Same point on SC24 ... which also had a dry summer. I'm sure it's just a coincidence. I'm re-locating to the Yucatan for the winter. It's not the Yucatan but the Gulf Coast has been pretty warm lately... And sunny and dry. July in Michigan weather in Mississippi, with no end in sight. |
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 30, 2023 1:13:01 GMT
January and February are the months I'm worried about. I've served my time in cold climates. And this year I'm thinking that the Gulf is not far enough south.
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Post by nonentropic on Sept 30, 2023 8:11:09 GMT
We have a month in the US this coming winter, at this moment colarado, Idaho, and Sun-peaks Canada so a cooler snowy winter preceding and during February is welcome. Last winter in Idaho was to cold for a poor little NZer.
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Post by code on Oct 1, 2023 5:11:21 GMT
Sun Peak eh? Not a bad place to be in the Winter? You don't happen to ski do you?
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Maybe Asro's God Awful, terrible winter was only one winter off. Here anyway. 
