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Post by txfarmer on Oct 1, 2021 15:10:37 GMT
There is no way to accurately or reliably discern how much USDA cooks the books. They have access to all actual planted acres and actual production for every reported acre in the country. Every year we have to report our planted acreage in order to qualify for any disaster assistance that may be approved should a disaster happen. That means we have to tell them how many acres of what crops we planted. At the end of the season, we then report what our production is off said acres. So the government has the actual numbers, and all they have to do is put their report together based off actual numbers provided to them.
That being said, a lot of their reports are based off "producer surveys" and observations from office staff of fields that they pass heading back and forth to work. There does not appear to be much actual in field agronomist data the USDA uses for their reports. This is as I understand how their process works. I get the surveys they provide to tell them my production and acreage. I usually tell the guy there is no need for me to fill out the survey because they already have my actual production in their system.
So the USDA is just like every other bureaucratic arm of the government. The USDA has many different branches under its umbrella. The FSA (Farm Service Agency) is who the farmers directly report actual crop numbers to. The NASS (National Agricultural Statistics Service) are the ones that do the surveys. The NASS is an unnecessary agency that provides nothing except a paycheck to the people working for it. Those people could go work for the FSA and compile the reports based off reliable data the government already has from the farmers who are growing the production but alas bureaucracy.....
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 1, 2021 17:16:25 GMT
There is no way to accurately or reliably discern how much USDA cooks the books. They have access to all actual planted acres and actual production for every reported acre in the country. Every year we have to report our planted acreage in order to qualify for any disaster assistance that may be approved should a disaster happen. That means we have to tell them how many acres of what crops we planted. At the end of the season, we then report what our production is off said acres. So the government has the actual numbers, and all they have to do is put their report together based off actual numbers provided to them. That being said, a lot of their reports are based off "producer surveys" and observations from office staff of fields that they pass heading back and forth to work. There does not appear to be much actual in field agronomist data the USDA uses for their reports. This is as I understand how their process works. I get the surveys they provide to tell them my production and acreage. I usually tell the guy there is no need for me to fill out the survey because they already have my actual production in their system. So the USDA is just like every other bureaucratic arm of the government. The USDA has many different branches under its umbrella. The FSA (Farm Service Agency) is who the farmers directly report actual crop numbers to. The NASS (National Agricultural Statistics Service) are the ones that do the surveys. The NASS is an unnecessary agency that provides nothing except a paycheck to the people working for it. Those people could go work for the FSA and compile the reports based off reliable data the government already has from the farmers who are growing the production but alas bureaucracy..... I figured that their ongoing production estimates involved an unknown number of actual field surveys and perhaps other (unknown to me) information inputs. Don't know their sample sizes or methodology. So if they get all the production reports at the end of the season, and assuming a bureaucratic lag time, then final production figures might be available by November(?)-December(?). I assume that the futures markets key in on the data when they can get it, probably monthly in one form or another. A lot of prognosticators. I also assume that the other country reports are of varying quality. Back in the early 70s, the government started up a remote sensing project for estimating crop estimates (LACIE). I assume it has gotten better over the years. CIA is probaby using whatever is available today. Don't know how much if any of this data flows into USDA country estimates. If there really are large production declines (as per reports on electroverse and elsewhere) then there might be some surprises coming. Markets don't like surprises. Or, as we've seen elsewhere, the production disasters may be overplayed. And you're right. As per my experience, many government agencies are "overstuffed" and could use some trimming. Whole sections could go away, and few if any (other than the removed employees) would ever notice that they had gone away. Government doesn't generally axe the payrolls of dissolved sub-units. They just move people elsewhere where they rust in place. |
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Post by nonentropic on Oct 1, 2021 21:50:45 GMT
Ultimately the price in the market will tell all.
Gas prices were rising in the US 6 months ago so there was some real pull already happening.
Regarding food production even in little old NZ we have a wet side and a dry side of each Island and it swings from side to side year to year. good production here bad production there etc. Transportation and internationalization has smoothed a lot of the price movements in highly elastic commodities.
You do get Cluster F--- when religion is in play as per CAGW.
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 1, 2021 22:53:14 GMT
Ultimately the price in the market will tell all. Gas prices were rising in the US 6 months ago so there was some real pull already happening. Regarding food production even in little old NZ we have a wet side and a dry side of each Island and it swings from side to side year to year. good production here bad production there etc. Transportation and internationalization has smoothed a lot of the price movements in highly elastic commodities. You do get Cluster F--- when religion is in play as per CAGW. You are right. The market will tell all. I'm not saying that USDA is padding the numbers, I have no way to know. But the market gets its data from somewhere and I would guess that USDA is a major source. Wheat prices appear to be up about 10% since spring. So maybe buyers have some doubt about the USDA. |
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Post by txfarmer on Oct 2, 2021 6:27:13 GMT
You are right. The market eventually tells the story, but the largest single influence for the market is the USDA numbers. Grain prices are higher than current USDA numbers overall support. So the market eventually tells the story. The short game affects producers the most. The market overall, speculators and fundamentals, are the long game.
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 4, 2021 5:14:46 GMT
You are right. The market eventually tells the story, but the largest single influence for the market is the USDA numbers. Grain prices are higher than current USDA numbers overall support. So the market eventually tells the story. The short game affects producers the most. The market overall, speculators and fundamentals, are the long game. So ... the market is hedging slowly toward the sounds of the disaster noise ... while the stayed and stoggy bureaustat sorts make marginal changes to the score card ... which steadies the market ship. When was the last time that the bureaustaters got caught with their estimates way up in the air ... and the real production numbers collapsed underneath them? Since I haven't followed these markets on a regular basis, I don't know. But if I were a farmer and got lulled into pre-selling my crop for a low price that was all smoke and mirrors, I think that I would be seriously pissed at the USDA ... and at myself. You guys in the business would know more about that than me. |
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Post by glennkoks on Oct 4, 2021 12:39:59 GMT
You are right. The market eventually tells the story, but the largest single influence for the market is the USDA numbers. Grain prices are higher than current USDA numbers overall support. So the market eventually tells the story. The short game affects producers the most. The market overall, speculators and fundamentals, are the long game. I have said it on this forum for years but the market has an uncanny ability to see through fake government numbers. The people and institutions that seek to make money on commodities use an incredible amount of data and tools to seek for advantages in the market. Currently there are all kinds of strange supply issues ranging from fuel to food creating volatility in the markets. Then there is inflation which is putting pressure on just about everything. It will be interesting to see if these shortages are really due to supply chain issues or something else... |
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 7, 2021 22:16:30 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 4, 2021 15:28:23 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 29, 2021 18:07:01 GMT
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Post by douglavers on Dec 31, 2021 4:09:13 GMT
We drove back from Adelaide a few days ago.
In Eastern SA and North Western Victoria, the grain stockpiles sitting under giant tarpaulins are the largest I have seen.
Cool wet winter has done wonders for the Oz grain harvest.
Methinks, there is a faint possibility that China may come to regret santioning Australia.
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 31, 2021 7:03:53 GMT
We drove back from Adelaide a few days ago. In Eastern SA and North Western Victoria, the grain stockpiles sitting under giant tarpaulins are the largest I have seen. Cool wet winter has done wonders for the Oz grain harvest. Methinks, there is a faint possibility that China may come to regret santioning Australia. That's great news Doug. Who are the new best customers? |
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Post by douglavers on Jan 2, 2022 2:21:18 GMT
Indonesia, Phillipines and S Korea had large increases, but I think Saudi Arabia, Arab states, and Egypt featured for wheat and other grains.
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Post by Sigurdur on Jan 4, 2022 22:47:13 GMT
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Post by code on Jan 5, 2022 17:14:10 GMT
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