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Post by acidohm on Feb 2, 2023 5:40:11 GMT
Model wars!
Moboy, I've seen the surprising model output last couple of days....and one of the reasons I don't look at electroverse is highlighted here.
GFS is outputting outliers in its operational run (the one you see as its primary output)
The ECMWF, nor any other model, or even the GFS ensembles....nothing else supports the dramatic GFS operational.
Therefore, the odds of it being correct are very low and not worth presenting as an actual forecast.
Most likely, this cold outcome won't happen.
Not to say it won't....its just, right now unlikely, say 15%.
Electroverse present this outcome as a sort of done deal....bit overexcited.
Also....the atmosphere hasn't been hinting at anything other then typical forecasts for a while. Current SSW never really looked like disturbing the PV, which it hasn't yet.
Even if it did, only once the PV has reacted or split...any effects at tropospheric level would at that point be out of the range of medium model forecasting and weeks out of the range of any certainty.
If the GFS is right, nothing in science could have predicted it 2 weeks ago. Right now, nothing in science suggests we'll go cold in 2 weeks or more.
If it does go cold, it will be a surprising anomalously unpredictable event.
That's chaos for you!
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 2, 2023 18:45:02 GMT
Model wars! Moboy, I've seen the surprising model output last couple of days....and one of the reasons I don't look at electroverse is highlighted here. GFS is outputting outliers in its operational run (the one you see as its primary output) The ECMWF, nor any other model, or even the GFS ensembles....nothing else supports the dramatic GFS operational. Therefore, the odds of it being correct are very low and not worth presenting as an actual forecast. Most likely, this cold outcome won't happen. Not to say it won't....its just, right now unlikely, say 15%. Electroverse present this outcome as a sort of done deal....bit overexcited. Also....the atmosphere hasn't been hinting at anything other then typical forecasts for a while. Current SSW never really looked like disturbing the PV, which it hasn't yet. Even if it did, only once the PV has reacted or split...any effects at tropospheric level would at that point be out of the range of medium model forecasting and weeks out of the range of any certainty. If the GFS is right, nothing in science could have predicted it 2 weeks ago. Right now, nothing in science suggests we'll go cold in 2 weeks or more. If it does go cold, it will be a surprising anomalously unpredictable event. That's chaos for you! Yes. Settled science is an oxymoron. Short term - long term. Same thing. Ride the wave. I read electroverse for the weather event summaries that I don't find elsewhere. He focuses on the extremes, but variance is a very important climate variable. Variance seems to become extreme as the globe transitions across extreme macro-conditions. The fun part of a roller coaster ride is when ya descend from the top of the cliff. We are heading down the slope. He is not a professional weather man so I take that into account. Tally-ho! Michael Mann is looking at a well-deserved train wreck. |
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 7, 2023 21:52:18 GMT
The last 3 months here in Middle Earth have been very normal. Temp (40-50ish) and precipitation. Hasn't rained the first 6 days of Feb. Normal = about 2 inches for the month. Transition zone. Our normal temp just goes further south and they think it's abnormal.  We have been largely missed. Austin TX just falls apart again. They need more practice? Or a new administration? |
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 8, 2023 23:54:10 GMT
Welcome back to the 1880s (in places)
Iceland January 2023 continued the cooling trend observed in Iceland. Last month, the country’s official weather stations ranged between -0.3C (in Teegarhorn) and -2.5C (in Reykjavík) below the multidecadal norm. The official January overview by the Icelandic Met. Office (in Icelandic): t.co/Vtx2Wu4MH7 pic.twitter.com/1QZ7fMOMWX — Trausti Jonsson (@hungurdiskar) February 4, 2023 January’s chill comes off the back of Iceland’s coldest December since 1973 (solar minimum of cycle 20). The capital Reykjavík was even colder, posting its frostiest final month of the year since the Dec of 1916 (The Centennial Minimum), according to Met Office data. On only three prior occasions has the capital been colder: in 1878, 1886 and 1880.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 9, 2023 22:49:53 GMT
Here in COMO I used the same amount of natural gas Dec-Jan 2022-23 as I did in Dec-Jan 2021-22. More amazing, I paid essentially the same amount.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 22, 2023 4:07:49 GMT
Code & Non: Ski Mauna Loa! 
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 23, 2023 19:25:38 GMT
Middle Earth is once again in the middle. Jet Stream digging southward with snow in the west ... then missing us to the west and the north as it heads east. As it should be.
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 2, 2023 17:58:39 GMT
Interesting write-up on record snowfall in the Sieras. |
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 9, 2023 3:16:12 GMT
Another Large Atmospheric River inbound to California 160 years since 1862  |
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 15, 2023 23:07:52 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 18, 2023 16:29:58 GMT
March 19 ... almost noon ... and 20F in my south-facing window. Enough already!
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Post by Sigurdur on Mar 18, 2023 16:47:32 GMT
Cloudy, breezy and 49F in Dothan, Alabama.
Locals think the end is near. 🤣🤣
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Post by flearider on Mar 18, 2023 17:40:45 GMT
10-13 c here .. winter is over ... few more weeks we will see 15-20c .. good job .. it's been a long one ..
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 19, 2023 0:49:27 GMT
Cloudy, breezy and 49F in Dothan, Alabama. Locals think the end is near. 🤣🤣 I'm taking Mother Nature to court for freezing my daffodils ... and Al Gore for raising (razing) my expectations. Marta says 67F water temperature is too cold for swimming. I said it is a LOT warmer than the Gulf of Alaska where I got dive certified. She told me where I could put it.
And by Dothan standards, they would be right.  |
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Post by ratty on Mar 19, 2023 1:10:31 GMT
Heat wave here but ..... wait for it ....
The local branch of our alarmist national broadcaster (ABC, affectionately known as 'Aunty') has acknowledged the heat but said 'no records were broken'.
I repeat 'no records were broken'!
Someone will get the sack for sure.
15 We 22.4 31.7°C
16 Th 22.5 34.9°C
17 Fr 23.8 36.6°C
18 Sa 23.5 33.1°C
Today probably 32°C.
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We have been largely missed. Austin TX just falls apart again. They need more practice? Or a new administration?
