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Post by missouriboy on Jul 7, 2024 22:46:26 GMT
It seems to me that something is giving a little extra kick to global temperatures. I’ve posted here many times about the quasi 60-year ocean current cycle and my view that the we would be in the cool phase over the years 2007 to 2037 which would keep global temperatures from rising a lot during that time. For the first 15 years through 2022 that was the case. Since then we’ve experienced an El Nino which pushed temperatures up, but they seem to be higher than I would have expected. Also, when I look back at the last half of 2022, temperatures were lowered by a La Nina, but not as much as I expected. Eighteen years ago when I made my prediction of a cool ocean current cycle, I listed 2 indicators and predicted they would be on the cool side. I predicted the PDO would average be -0.7 over the 2007-2037 period, the same as the previous cool cycle and it’s actually been somewhat lower at -0.95. I predicted the multivariate ENSO would be -0.3 and its also been lower at -0.38. so the signs of the cool ocean cycle are there. Missouriboy and others have been pointing to Hunga Tonga’s injection of water into the stratosphere as a possible cause of the warming. Here’s a link to a recent article which gives some credence to that idea. The article refers to a paper which adds more credence. As of June this year my global warming forecast of an average UAH anomaly of 0.1C for 2007-2037 is still accurate, but the extra recent warming is soon going to mean my forecast is going to be too low. I’m going to blame it on the Hunga Tonga event. Look to the clouds.  |
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Post by ratty on Jul 7, 2024 22:51:50 GMT
It seems to me that something is giving a little extra kick to global temperatures. I’ve posted here many times about the quasi 60-year ocean current cycle and my view that the we would be in the cool phase over the years 2007 to 2037 which would keep global temperatures from rising a lot during that time. For the first 15 years through 2022 that was the case. Since then we’ve experienced an El Nino which pushed temperatures up, but they seem to be higher than I would have expected. Also, when I look back at the last half of 2022, temperatures were lowered by a La Nina, but not as much as I expected. Eighteen years ago when I made my prediction of a cool ocean current cycle, I listed 2 indicators and predicted they would be on the cool side. I predicted the PDO would average be -0.7 over the 2007-2037 period, the same as the previous cool cycle and it’s actually been somewhat lower at -0.95. I predicted the multivariate ENSO would be -0.3 and its also been lower at -0.38. so the signs of the cool ocean cycle are there. Missouriboy and others have been pointing to Hunga Tonga’s injection of water into the stratosphere as a possible cause of the warming. Here’s a link to a recent article which gives some credence to that idea. The article refers to a paper which adds more credence. As of June this year my global warming forecast of an average UAH anomaly of 0.1C for 2007-2037 is still accurate, but the extra recent warming is soon going to mean my forecast is going to be too low. I’m going to blame it on the Hunga Tonga event. Duwayne, this Google search throws up a multitude of opinions on Hunga-Tonga and many expect/suggest/predict warming: effect on global temperatures hunga-tonga volcano |
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Post by Sigurdur on Jul 8, 2024 1:54:26 GMT
Duwayne: The Hunga Tonga eruption effect is very real. We have always lived in exciting times. This exciting time involves learning about a previously unlearnable event because we didn't have the tech to do so. What effect has the eruption had on the MJO? www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf |
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Post by blustnmtn on Jul 8, 2024 11:52:02 GMT
Observations look like part of an ~80 year cycle while models look like they were optimized and tuned to the negative-positive peak transition. But I'm no climate scientist. I think you are right although I came up with something more like a 60-year cycle when I examined this. I first used a 7-year smoothing to get rid of the ENSO bumps and a 60-year cycle popped up. This is covered in my past temperature prediction model discussions dating back to 2008. Duwayne, this is just another aspect of our planet that we know almost nothing about! The~70 year cycle mentioned in this article grabs my attention: www.theblaze.com/news/earths-core-slowed-reverse-effects-study“By analyzing seismographic data, scientists believe the core rotates quicker and slower during a 70-year cycle. A hypothesis proposed in 2023 claimed that the inner care had actually spun faster than Earth itself in the past, but was spinning slower in recent times. The slowdown was so significant that the inner core could even reverse the direction of its spin. The research discovered the inner core began slowing down around 2008 and slightly reversed direction relative to the mantle by 2023. According to calculations by researchers, the rotation of the inner core will start speeding up again in the next 5 to 10 years.“ |
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Post by ratty on Jul 9, 2024 11:07:38 GMT
Looking at this chart, I predict cooling .....   Source |
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 9, 2024 20:49:16 GMT
I think you are right although I came up with something more like a 60-year cycle when I examined this. I first used a 7-year smoothing to get rid of the ENSO bumps and a 60-year cycle popped up. This is covered in my past temperature prediction model discussions dating back to 2008. Duwayne, this is just another aspect of our planet that we know almost nothing about! The~70 year cycle mentioned in this article grabs my attention: www.theblaze.com/news/earths-core-slowed-reverse-effects-study“By analyzing seismographic data, scientists believe the core rotates quicker and slower during a 70-year cycle. A hypothesis proposed in 2023 claimed that the inner care had actually spun faster than Earth itself in the past, but was spinning slower in recent times. The slowdown was so significant that the inner core could even reverse the direction of its spin. The research discovered the inner core began slowing down around 2008 and slightly reversed direction relative to the mantle by 2023. According to calculations by researchers, the rotation of the inner core will start speeding up again in the next 5 to 10 years.“ Interesting that 2008 is the transition year between the last of our energetic solar cycles (SC23) and the first of our smaller solar cycles (SC24). Just a coincidence right? Many other coincidences occur around that timeline. When our massive star changes resonance . Our planet responds. |
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 9, 2024 21:07:18 GMT
This all needs to comply with the conservation of momentum and in this case angular momentum. So its about where the the angular momentum is relative to the axis and where on earth latitude speaking. It does not travel fast because this is part of the migration of volcano's or volcanic belts concept.
Been reading and working on a geothermal project in Australia and you can trace the migration of volcanic hot spots as they migrate under the crust.
How do we know its slow moving because orbital speed is also very stable but does change.
What is the force behind this all, does Barry have an input here?
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Post by ratty on Jul 9, 2024 22:05:40 GMT
This all needs to comply with the conservation of momentum and in this case angular momentum. So its about where the the angular momentum is relative to the axis and where on earth latitude speaking. It does not travel fast because this is part of the migration of volcano's or volcanic belts concept. Been reading and working on a geothermal project in Australia and you can trace the migration of volcanic hot spots as they migrate under the crust. How do we know its slow moving because orbital speed is also very stable but does change. What is the force behind this all, does Barry have an input here? Barry is everywhere. |
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Post by flearider on Jul 10, 2024 18:55:00 GMT
i know there is this cycle and that cycle .. but if we just look .. where it's getting cooler ? coastal area's above a certain latitude ? while below that line your getting extremes of heat in large land masses ? the oceans have lost there heat or it's not moving well .. i don't know thats why i come here to make a little sense out of it all ..patterns and cycles arn't doing what there supposed to ..
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Post by ratty on Jul 11, 2024 1:33:35 GMT
i know there is this cycle and that cycle .. but if we just look .. where it's getting cooler ? coastal area's above a certain latitude ? while below that line your getting extremes of heat in large land masses ? the oceans have lost there heat or it's not moving well .. i don't know thats why i come here to make a little sense out of it all ..patterns and cycles arn't doing what there supposed to .. Flea, can you report back when you've figured it out? |
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Post by flearider on Jul 11, 2024 8:43:41 GMT
i know there is this cycle and that cycle .. but if we just look .. where it's getting cooler ? coastal area's above a certain latitude ? while below that line your getting extremes of heat in large land masses ? the oceans have lost there heat or it's not moving well .. i don't know thats why i come here to make a little sense out of it all ..patterns and cycles arn't doing what there supposed to .. Flea, can you report back when you've figured it out? YEP working on it ...just seems to be getting cooler from the poles down .. around costal areas .. |
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 11, 2024 12:38:38 GMT
Flea, can you report back when you've figured it out? YEP working on it ...just seems to be getting cooler from the poles down .. around costal areas .. Could be that a negative AMO or a discharge of the Beaufort Gyre is sneaking up on us Flea. What records we have suggest IT will come ... but nobody knows the time or magnitude. Current indicator data bases we track don't currently show it. BUT ... that may or my not mean anything. For practical purposes Flea, I think your intuition is correct. Coastal recording locations (if accurately recorded) should show a drift to cold as / when it happens. You are right there. I put together a dataset sometime back of recorded monthly temps for several cities around the European edge of the North Atlantic and North Sea. Haven't updated it since 2019 or 2020? Have to check. |
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 11, 2024 13:10:48 GMT
A look back at process theses papers ...
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Post by code on Jul 11, 2024 16:24:08 GMT
A look back at process theses papers ... Quote from the paper "I predict that the intensity of Solar Cycle 25 will be fairly similar to Solar Cycle 24" |
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Post by ratty on Jul 11, 2024 22:15:15 GMT
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