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Post by Sigurdur on Dec 16, 2023 0:58:41 GMT
I need someone smarter than I to explain this image ....  10,000 years ago. |
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Post by ratty on Dec 16, 2023 3:31:42 GMT
I need someone smarter than I to explain this image .... 10,000 years ago. Still don't get it .... ? |
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Post by ratty on Jan 4, 2024 0:13:56 GMT
Not predictions .... For what it's worth ... the last three years in Paris France have been among the coldest on record, according to: Extreme Weather Watch |
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 8, 2024 21:51:20 GMT
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Post by walnut on Jan 20, 2024 16:18:14 GMT
In 2008 I mailed a letter to myself, now sealed unopened, declaring that I thought that "global warming" (as it was called back then) was a hoax, and that I believed that the climate would likely cool over the next 50 years. So for 39 cents or whatever a stamp cost, I went on the record.  |
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Post by walnut on Jan 20, 2024 16:29:45 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 20, 2024 20:25:01 GMT
Send it to your senators and representative ... and request an opinion ... on the record. OK should be OK.  |
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Post by duwayne on Jan 26, 2024 15:35:32 GMT
Roy Spencer chart. More info in link below.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 26, 2024 18:07:01 GMT
You would think that would raise some questions ... even amongst the dimmest of the dim. True love is a marvelous thing.  |
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Post by blustnmtn on Jan 30, 2024 13:32:00 GMT
You would think that would raise some questions ... even amongst the dimmest of the dim. True love is a marvelous thing. Observations look like part of an ~80 year cycle while models look like they were optimized and tuned to the negative-positive peak transition. But I'm no climate scientist. |
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Post by duwayne on Jan 30, 2024 14:45:01 GMT
You would think that would raise some questions ... even amongst the dimmest of the dim. True love is a marvelous thing. Observations look like part of an ~80 year cycle while models look like they were optimized and tuned to the negative-positive peak transition. But I'm no climate scientist. I think you are right although I came up with something more like a 60-year cycle when I examined this. I first used a 7-year smoothing to get rid of the ENSO bumps and a 60-year cycle popped up. This is covered in my past temperature prediction model discussions dating back to 2008. |
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Post by blustnmtn on Jan 30, 2024 15:35:14 GMT
Observations look like part of an ~80 year cycle while models look like they were optimized and tuned to the negative-positive peak transition. But I'm no climate scientist. I think you are right although I came up with something more like a 60-year cycle when I examined this. I first used a 7-year smoothing to get rid of the ENSO bumps and a 60-year cycle popped up. This is covered in my past temperature prediction model discussions dating back to 2008. I did it by eye Duwayne 🤓 |
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Post by ratty on Jan 31, 2024 1:41:25 GMT
I think you are right although I came up with something more like a 60-year cycle when I examined this. I first used a 7-year smoothing to get rid of the ENSO bumps and a 60-year cycle popped up. This is covered in my past temperature prediction model discussions dating back to 2008. I did it by eye Duwayne 🤓  |
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Post by duwayne on Jul 7, 2024 15:14:50 GMT
It seems to me that something is giving a little extra kick to global temperatures.
I’ve posted here many times about the quasi 60-year ocean current cycle and my view that the we would be in the cool phase over the years 2007 to 2037 which would keep global temperatures from rising a lot during that time. For the first 15 years through 2022 that was the case.
Since then we’ve experienced an El Nino which pushed temperatures up, but they seem to be higher than I would have expected. Also, when I look back at the last half of 2022, temperatures were lowered by a La Nina, but not as much as I expected.
Eighteen years ago when I made my prediction of a cool ocean current cycle, I listed 2 indicators and predicted they would be on the cool side. I predicted the PDO would average be -0.7 over the 2007-2037 period, the same as the previous cool cycle and it’s actually been somewhat lower at -0.95. I predicted the multivariate ENSO would be -0.3 and its also been lower at -0.38. so the signs of the cool ocean cycle are there.
Missouriboy and others have been pointing to Hunga Tonga’s injection of water into the stratosphere as a possible cause of the warming.
Here’s a link to a recent article which gives some credence to that idea.
The article refers to a paper which adds more credence.
As of June this year my global warming forecast of an average UAH anomaly of 0.1C for 2007-2037 is still accurate, but the extra recent warming is soon going to mean my forecast is going to be too low. I’m going to blame it on the Hunga Tonga event. |
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Post by flearider on Jul 7, 2024 19:18:54 GMT
It seems to me that something is giving a little extra kick to global temperatures.
I’ve posted here many times about the quasi 60-year ocean current cycle and my view that the we would be in the cool phase over the years 2007 to 2037 which would keep global temperatures from rising a lot during that time. For the first 15 years through 2022 that was the case.
Since then we’ve experienced an El Nino which pushed temperatures up, but they seem to be higher than I would have expected. Also, when I look back at the last half of 2022, temperatures were lowered by a La Nina, but not as much as I expected.
Eighteen years ago when I made my prediction of a cool ocean current cycle, I listed 2 indicators and predicted they would be on the cool side. I predicted the PDO would average be -0.7 over the 2007-2037 period, the same as the previous cool cycle and it’s actually been somewhat lower at -0.95. I predicted the multivariate ENSO would be -0.3 and its also been lower at -0.38. so the signs of the cool ocean cycle are there.
Missouriboy and others have been pointing to Hunga Tonga’s injection of water into the stratosphere as a possible cause of the warming.
Here’s a link to a recent article which gives some credence to that idea.
The article refers to a paper which adds more credence.
As of June this year my global warming forecast of an average UAH anomaly of 0.1C for 2007-2037 is still accurate, but the extra recent warming is soon going to mean my forecast is going to be too low. I’m going to blame it on the Hunga Tonga event. i'll tell you now coastal areas are way cooler than they should be iceland norway the uk .. looking at canada newfoundland is cool .. seems to be inland where temps are high with a lot of land mass .. we reached a blistering 15c today for this time of yr it's easily 10c under the last 4 yrs |
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