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Post by missouriboy on May 4, 2022 0:16:27 GMT
Lots of people - including yours truly - think our planet is cooling. However, end April satellite figs show a rise to +0.26degC. I am beginning to worry about the provenance of those figures. I wouldn't worry yet Doug. Take a look at these charts comparing the SC24 and SC25 UAH anomaly progression against ENSO and Sunspot trends. Yes, the UAH April global anomaly did a spike up ... but you will notice that the overall trend is down. Note that the typical anomaly trend line is downward from the pre-cycle El Nino peak across 3 years. There have been several up-spikes along the trend lines. Note how low ENSO 1+2 is ... and this will move to 3. We will see. But with a continuing La Nina, and past trends, I forecast a continued decline over the next 12 months. Here, I start the timeseries for the charts on the beginning month of each solar cycle (Dec. 2008 and Dec. 2019). I see no reason to believe that SC25 is going to fire up into a super cycle.  |
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Post by nonentropic on May 4, 2022 1:29:27 GMT
And the AMO stands above all that again.
I think we talked about this 18 months ago and my prediction which had the usual solid dose of wishful thinking was to see the temperature of the world drop below the 0C anomaly, it didn't, I think the SOI being pretty sold positive again indicates maybe 6 more months of La Nina so that looks OK and the AMO going down would give the temps a further shove.
Fingers crossed.
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Post by missouriboy on May 4, 2022 1:40:55 GMT
And the AMO stands above all that again. I think we talked about this 18 months ago and my prediction which had the usual solid dose of wishful thinking was to see the temperature of the world drop below the 0C anomaly, it didn't, I think the SOI being pretty sold positive again indicates maybe 6 more months of La Nina so that looks OK and the AMO going down would give the temps a further shove. Fingers crossed. It may make it in a couple+ of months. The tropics were already there in March ... if they stay. You'll have woke greenies jumping out of windows in New York. So, as you said, that looks OK.  Elizabeth Warren may shapeshift back to a neanderthal. |
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Post by nonentropic on May 4, 2022 3:27:03 GMT
flat on her back
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Post by missouriboy on May 4, 2022 17:11:55 GMT
More cold and rain next few days. Approx 7 to 8 F below normal first 3 days of May. Today will be the same. Wet ground will stay wet.
Big meridional waves everywhere.
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Post by ratty on May 4, 2022 22:39:28 GMT
BoM looking forward locally ....  BoM TMax forecasts have been too high by a degrees or two most days. |
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Post by missouriboy on May 5, 2022 13:26:16 GMT
I now have about 4 inches of water in my wheel barrow, accumulated over the last few days. Not a deluge ... but a tracked vehicle would not get very far in local fields. Looking at the atmospheric circulation patterns, this is how the 100th meridian came into legend.
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Post by code on May 5, 2022 21:35:38 GMT
. Attachments:
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Post by walnut on May 5, 2022 21:39:36 GMT
Haskell, OK, just SE of Tulsa has received 12 inches over the last few days. And I've noticed that town has drainage issues.
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Post by missouriboy on May 5, 2022 23:49:14 GMT
Haskell, OK, just SE of Tulsa has received 12 inches over the last few days. And I've noticed that town has drainage issues. Conservatively, I think we got 4 or 5 inches. Grass and low covers love this sht. Others are more retarded, But when the heat kicks in, there is going to be an explosion on my home lot. I had to be the angel of death on one stubborn vine I have. Made of iron and invassive as hell. This vine spray is good stuff ... If you're not a vine. That forecast of heavier spring rainfall in the center of the Midwest looks like a good one. And several F below the 1981-2010 norm. How much and how cold will be interesting. Someone should design some condolence cards for the true believers. Many will not like looking like idiots as the consensus bleeds off. |
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Post by missouriboy on May 6, 2022 0:22:31 GMT
Haskell, OK, just SE of Tulsa has received 12 inches over the last few days. And I've noticed that town has drainage issues. Sure am thankful for my 30-40 feet of local elevation. And I'm on top so I can watch small amounts of it flow on by. |
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Post by glennkoks on May 6, 2022 2:42:41 GMT
Lots of people - including yours truly - think our planet is cooling. However, end April satellite figs show a rise to +0.26degC. I am beginning to worry about the provenance of those figures. We have been in a warming period, things are changing and I think it is going to take time for the earth to shed heat stored in the oceans. But once it reaches a tipping point the change will come. For whatever reason the Great Pacific Climate Shift Of 1976 caused the Pacific to leave it's cool phase and enter a warm one. A back, to back to back La Nina could certainly do the same in the opposite direction. |
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Post by ratty on May 6, 2022 3:54:33 GMT
Haskell, OK, just SE of Tulsa has received 12 inches over the last few days. And I've noticed that town has drainage issues. Have the Western drought areas had any? |
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Post by walnut on May 6, 2022 5:09:00 GMT
Haskell, OK, just SE of Tulsa has received 12 inches over the last few days. And I've noticed that town has drainage issues. Have the Western drought areas had any? Not of this Midwestern round, honestly I'm not really up to date on that. Maybe Code will see and answer. |
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Post by duwayne on May 6, 2022 14:53:57 GMT
Haskell, OK, just SE of Tulsa has received 12 inches over the last few days. And I've noticed that town has drainage issues. Have the Western drought areas had any? The southwest has been hot and dry. |
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Elizabeth Warren may shapeshift back to a neanderthal. 
