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Post by justme on Jan 31, 2023 2:23:59 GMT
Justme, if you trust any economic data out of Russia I have a bridge I want to sell you. No way know how they have replaced the market they lost in Europe. China and India are buying some of their crude at a 30% discount… What a great partnership that is. A match made in heaven. Putin: “hey Xi old buddy old pal, how about buying some of my oil?” Xi: “ok but being as you are in a pickle and pissed in your own drinking water I want a 30% discount. Because I can…” IMF is now forecasting Russia's economy to grow +.3 percent in 2023, and +2.1 percent for 2024. In the Spring of 2022, there were some economist predicting up to a 15 percent contraction of GDP in 2022. IMF now says Russia's economy contracted 2.2 percent in 2022. IMF is forecasting a -.6 percent contraction of GDP for the UK in 2023. Look at China and India. www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/01/31/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2023#Projections
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 1, 2023 7:38:35 GMT
Justme, if you trust any economic data out of Russia I have a bridge I want to sell you. No way know how they have replaced the market they lost in Europe. China and India are buying some of their crude at a 30% discount… What a great partnership that is. A match made in heaven. Putin: “hey Xi old buddy old pal, how about buying some of my oil?” Xi: “ok but being as you are in a pickle and pissed in your own drinking water I want a 30% discount. Because I can…” IMF is now forecasting Russia's economy to grow +.3 percent in 2023, and +2.1 percent for 2024. In the Spring of 2022, there were some economist predicting up to a 15 percent contraction of GDP in 2022. IMF now says Russia's economy contracted 2.2 percent in 2022. IMF is forecasting a -.6 percent contraction of GDP for the UK in 2023. Look at China and India. www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/01/31/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2023#ProjectionsA more realistic perspective from a polled group of 17 analysts and economists seems to think the Russian economy will shrink by 2.3% in 2023. www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/russia-hold-rates-feb-economy-seen-contracting-again-2023-2023-01-31/
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 1, 2023 13:08:08 GMT
Justme, if you trust any economic data out of Russia I have a bridge I want to sell you. No way know how they have replaced the market they lost in Europe. China and India are buying some of their crude at a 30% discount… What a great partnership that is. A match made in heaven. Putin: “hey Xi old buddy old pal, how about buying some of my oil?” Xi: “ok but being as you are in a pickle and pissed in your own drinking water I want a 30% discount. Because I can…” IMF is now forecasting Russia's economy to grow +.3 percent in 2023, and +2.1 percent for 2024. In the Spring of 2022, there were some economist predicting up to a 15 percent contraction of GDP in 2022. IMF now says Russia's economy contracted 2.2 percent in 2022. IMF is forecasting a -.6 percent contraction of GDP for the UK in 2023. Look at China and India. www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/01/31/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2023#ProjectionsWell, the Troll is back with variations on the usual propaganda. I thought the 45th Army took you home.
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Post by justme on Feb 1, 2023 14:00:00 GMT
The president of Poland (Andrzej Duda), spoke at the World Economic Forum. He has been one of the most extreme anti-Russia alarmist supporters of Ukraine. At 51 seconds in. Ukraine is winning so much that their number one fan is worried about them not surviving. He also talks about Russia being 'very strong'. If you are watching closely you can already see the mental gymnastics starting: Zelensky mentioned 'Ukraine needs more weapons and tanks'. He 'needs them faster'. He said 'Russia is using time as a weapon'. CIA director Burns met with Zelensky: Burns briefed Zelenskiy on his expectations on Russia's upcoming military plans, the newspaper said, adding he also acknowledged that: www.reuters.com/world/europe/cia-director-burns-traveled-ukraine-last-week-meet-zelenskiy-washington-post-2023-01-19/Here is the Swiss media mentioning Ukraine's thousands of lost tanks: www.nzz.ch/international/krieg-in-der-ukraine-der-schuetzenpanzer-marder-reicht-nicht-ld.1720036Russian MoD states approximately 20,000 vehicles in total have been destroyed. 1000 tanks/armored vehicles/ specialty vehicles will last Ukraine a month. This is an artillery war. Meanwhile pro-Ukrainian journalist are mentioning all the brand new T-90M's showing up on the front lines on a weekly basis. The T-90M was unveiled in 2017. The T-90M is an improved version of the T-90 tank. Sometimes this tank is referred as "Proryv-3" (Breakthrough-3). It was first publicly revealed in 2017. www.military-today.com/tanks/t90m.htmThe west is desperately trying to keep Ukraine afloat. This is why we see the greater than 10 billion worth of USD in aid being sent by the west per month, and finally agreeing to send western tanks. Ukraine's Donbas defensive front is collapsing. This latest weapons package is an effort to try and preserve as much of central/western Ukraine as possible.
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Post by justme on Feb 1, 2023 14:15:01 GMT
Now we even have leaders of countries that are both in NATO and the EU stating 'Russia is going to win'. www.politico.eu/article/hungary-viktor-orban-is-telling-ukraine-to-quit-russia-war/Zoran Milanovic (president of Croatia) stated 'there are 150,000 dead Ukrainian soldiers and the western strategy in Ukraine is deeply immoral'. Douglas Macgregor (ex U.S. colonel and government official) in early January stated Ukraine has 450,000 casualties. He says 'Ukrainian defense lines are collapsing and Ukraine will not last much longer'. Some analyst have estimates as high as 600,000.
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Post by justme on Feb 1, 2023 14:45:25 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 1, 2023 15:57:52 GMT
The president of Poland (Andrzej Duda), spoke at the World Economic Forum. He has been one of the most extreme anti-Russia alarmist supporters of Ukraine. At 51 seconds in. Ukraine is winning so much that their number one fan is worried about them not surviving. He also talks about Russia being 'very strong'. If you are watching closely you can already see the mental gymnastics starting: Zelensky mentioned 'Ukraine needs more weapons and tanks'. He 'needs them faster'. He said 'Russia is using time as a weapon'. CIA director Burns met with Zelensky: Burns briefed Zelenskiy on his expectations on Russia's upcoming military plans, the newspaper said, adding he also acknowledged that: www.reuters.com/world/europe/cia-director-burns-traveled-ukraine-last-week-meet-zelenskiy-washington-post-2023-01-19/Here is the Swiss media mentioning Ukraine's thousands of lost tanks: www.nzz.ch/international/krieg-in-der-ukraine-der-schuetzenpanzer-marder-reicht-nicht-ld.1720036Russian MoD states approximately 20,000 vehicles in total have been destroyed. 1000 tanks/armored vehicles/ specialty vehicles will last Ukraine a month. This is an artillery war. Meanwhile pro-Ukrainian journalist are mentioning all the brand new T-90M's showing up on the front lines on a weekly basis. The T-90M was unveiled in 2017. The T-90M is an improved version of the T-90 tank. Sometimes this tank is referred as "Proryv-3" (Breakthrough-3). It was first publicly revealed in 2017. www.military-today.com/tanks/t90m.htmThe west is desperately trying to keep Ukraine afloat. This is why we see the greater than 10 billion worth of USD in aid being sent by the west per month, and finally agreeing to send western tanks. Ukraine's Donbas defensive front is collapsing. This latest weapons package is an effort to try and preserve as much of central/western Ukraine as possible. justme Andrzej Duda, many other Poles and eastern Europeans know what it is like to grow up under Soviet tyranny. For them Putin is still a KGB murderous thug hell bent on re-establishing the former USSR. They don't want the evil tyrant as a neighbor, and I don't blame them. History has shown us time and time again if you give a dictator an inch he will take a mile. With that being said Zelenskiy and his government have a history of corruption. There are no "good guys" in this war. Only the lesser of two evils. As for who is "winning" the war? I think it is clear from realistic sources outside the western main stream media the Russians are slowly winning via attrition. It's no secret that Putin is preparing for a major spring offensive as soon as the mud dries. Hence the 140 or so Leopard II tanks headed Ukraine's way from allies. Which to be frank the Russians do not have an answer for. It is also clear that Germany and Europe are going to make it through the winter without Russian gas. A commodity that will never again be the source of income it once was for the pariah state. They simply do not have the infrastructure in place to ship it east to China. In any scenario Russia looses a long, drawn out war as both military and economic costs crush whats left of their economy over time.
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 1, 2023 16:09:03 GMT
The wheels continue to fall off. Russia continues to methodically advance in the Donbass. Ukrainian government officials admitted 1000 Ukrainian combat casualties per day back in June. This is unsustainable. Alleged leaked Ukrainian government documents from July show 191,000 casualties. Ukraine has mandatory conscription for ages 16 - 64 which is now being extended to women. Russia gained more ground in Kherson for the first time since July. Russia also has more artillery than the west combined. The writing was always on the wall. The lines are cracking and will collapse by Christmas. The west built their military to fight terrorist insurgencies (not large scale land wars). The west's goal was to make the SMO as painful as possible for Russia, and to avoid a scenario where a quick capitulation of Ukraine (largest land army in Europe), could lead to a future proxy war using Ukraine's assets. The assassination of Daria Dughina will be a rallying cry for Russians. As someone who is invested in the stock markets and down big this year, I am wary of any further escalation. justme, when I want a laugh I go back and read some of the propaganda you posted months ago. Like "the lines collapsing by Christmas" posted by you in August...
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Post by justme on Feb 1, 2023 16:41:10 GMT
justme, when I want a laugh I go back and read some of the propaganda you posted months ago. Like "the lines collapsing by Christmas" posted by you in August... Russia is destroying equipment and soldiers. The territory will be there when the Ukrainian army and western equipment is all destroyed. They use overwhelming artillery and do not storm a city until resistance is minimal. This is done to save lives, as well as take advantage of having Ukraine transport men and equipment across the country (long supply lines). Many speculated Russia would launch a large scale offensive to end the conflict. However, it appears they will continue to methodically grind down Ukrainian soldiers and western equipment. Currently, there are 700,000 well equipped/well trained Russian troops in the Ukrainian war arena. Ukrainian losses have been catastrophic. Ukrainian government officials and western media have repeatedly talked about the Russian artillery advantage. What happens in a land war when one side has a disproportionate amount of artillery and long range weapons? Losses are are also disproportionate. There are estimated to be less than 200,000 poorly equipped Ukrainian soldiers across the front lines. In May, the Ukrainian government was boasting about mobilizing 1 million civilians. Russia manufactures more artillery/tanks than the west combined. The latest artillery and tanks are being reported by Ukrainian journalist on the front lines. Many claim Russia's T-14 is the most advanced tank in the world. Many of the Leopards being sent are older models. Spain announced today they would send between 4-6. Greece announced they would not send any. The coalition is already shrinking. Western media admits Ukraine has lost thousands of tanks. The tanks being sent only cover a small proportion of their tanks lost, and are a death trap in an artillery war. For the west to keep up they would need to go on a war footing and convert every auto factory to a weapons manufacturing facility. There are numerous articles about the USA sending artillery from Israel and trying to find ammo from countries around the world to Ukraine.
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Post by justme on Feb 1, 2023 16:55:05 GMT
The strategy of the west was to defeat Russia through economic sanctions and a massive dis-information war. Any opposing government to your own is always painted as evil and incompetent. Governments and intelligence operate on concept similar to slave morality. The more people and resources on your side, the more wealthy you become (globalism). Media is a mouthpiece for government interests whether the information is factually correct or fantasy. Leaders in the west started to buy their own propaganda. They calculated Russia would be forced to withdraw from Eastern Ukraine due to sanctions and civil unrest and uprising from the dis-information war.
When this failed, plan B was to up the unprecedented military aid and support to get Russia to negotiate. The concept is, Russia may agree to negotiate to save lives and stop sanctions. However, when Russia partially mobilized and turned on the war machine, there was no possible way to change the trajectory without World War III. The advantages on the Russian side increase by the day. We have seen the west send more military aid to Ukraine in the last 1.5 months, than any time in this conflict. In my subjective view this may be the last hail mary. This is the equivalent of trying to use a band aid on a rapidly sinking ship. The result is inevitable.
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 1, 2023 20:29:21 GMT
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Post by justme on Feb 1, 2023 20:51:40 GMT
Your sectional that was posted, claims there was a small 40 square meter fire in a building (430 square feet). It claims this is 'a blow for Putin'. It even mentions there were no injuries. Watch the video I posted above with Douglas Macgregor. He states 'the Russian people have never been so united'. Russia views this conflict as existential. Why not post the videos of people being grabbed off the streets in Ukraine for forced conscription? Here are just a couple in the last 2 months: Let's say you have a series of 100 events in a conflict. If 98 events go Russia's way and 2 go Ukraine's way, the western media will only report about the 2 Ukrainian events. This gives viewers a false impression of reality and events on the ground.
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 1, 2023 21:13:29 GMT
Russians conscripts are cannon fodder:
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Post by justme on Feb 2, 2023 0:50:41 GMT
There are several reasons why the USA wants to get out of this conflict.
First there are several benefits. Europe and the west are further dependent on the USA. The USA has benefited financially though LNG sales and military sales. Many countries decided to buy expensive LNG as well as replace their military Ukrainian sent aid with weapons from the USA.
The negatives have started to outweigh the benefits.
The USA and western countries froze Russian government assets. Many countries in the east were upset about this. If it can happen to Russia, it can happen to us. My guess is, the USA has reassured these countries this is a temporary measure to promote peace. We have seen many countries in the east commence global trade in their native currencies and their own national banks. This is another reason the USA will not give Russia's frozen government assets to Ukraine. Even Iran eventually received their frozen assets back. Still damage has been done globally to the US Dollar.
The west's military industry is for profit. The land arsenals were modernized for terrorist insurgencies. It is all about precision and not large scale land wars. These weapons are primarily focused on Air Force and the Navy. Western stocks are becoming depleted. Almost everyone in western governments would consider China their number 1 adversary. As stocks get depleted this weakens the USA's position in the Pacific.
As stocks of weapons have run low, the USA has sent new weapons. We have seen the recent pledge of western tanks. Rumors GLSDB will be announced at the end of this week. These weapons have a slightly longer range than previous weapons sent. The west is trying to find a solution to artillery, Himars shortages, and weapons that are more cost effective. Sending new weapons and longer ranges risk escalation and WWIII. The west does not want WWIII.
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Post by nonentropic on Feb 2, 2023 0:59:44 GMT
I think the likelihood of Russia "winning" is rising the outcome will not be fun for them.
The Ukrainians look like Russians and will cut the throats of the occupiers for decades, the West will have no need for Russian stuff within 2 years. Russia is resourceful but ultimately its a small economy they will struggle economically with the inevitable sanctions.
China will buy their resources but at a very significant discount. The economic cluster of Iran, Russia, North Korea and possibly China is not a picture of a robust group. Each country will have to decide if they want to be with them or the greater world.
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