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Post by justme on Feb 2, 2023 1:18:50 GMT
I think the likelihood of Russia "winning" is rising the outcome will not be fun for them. The Ukrainians look like Russians and will cut the throats of the occupiers for decades, the West will have no need for Russian stuff within 2 years. Russia is resourceful but ultimately its a small economy they will struggle economically with the inevitable sanctions. China will buy their resources but at a very significant discount. The economic cluster of Iran, Russia, North Korea and possibly China is not a picture of a robust group. Each country will have to decide if they want to be with them or the greater world. Southern and Eastern Ukraine are pro-Russian and contain many ethnic Russians. Russia does not want or would try to occupy territory in Central and Western Ukraine. Some areas of Central and Western Ukraine, over 90 percent identify with western values. Many of the Ukrainians living in the areas of fighting since 2014, either moved to western Ukraine or east to get closer to Russia (depending on their views), to get away from the fighting. As you can see from my previous posts many sources in the west now admit sanctions have failed and the Russian economy is growing this year. GDP is predicted to grow faster in Russia than the USA, Germany, or France in 2024.
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Post by ratty on Feb 2, 2023 1:28:14 GMT
The propaganda war is in full swing ....
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Post by nonentropic on Feb 2, 2023 9:18:48 GMT
Justme looks like a boarder that could work.
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Post by justme on Feb 2, 2023 12:50:26 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 2, 2023 14:12:35 GMT
I think the likelihood of Russia "winning" is rising the outcome will not be fun for them. The Ukrainians look like Russians and will cut the throats of the occupiers for decades, the West will have no need for Russian stuff within 2 years. Russia is resourceful but ultimately its a small economy they will struggle economically with the inevitable sanctions. China will buy their resources but at a very significant discount. The economic cluster of Iran, Russia, North Korea and possibly China is not a picture of a robust group. Each country will have to decide if they want to be with them or the greater world. Southern and Eastern Ukraine are pro-Russian and contain many ethnic Russians. Russia does not want or would try to occupy territory in Central and Western Ukraine. Some areas of Central and Western Ukraine, over 90 percent identify with western values. Many of the Ukrainians living in the areas of fighting since 2014, either moved to western Ukraine or east to get closer to Russia (depending on their views), to get away from the fighting. As you can see from my previous posts many sources in the west now admit sanctions have failed and the Russian economy is growing this year. GDP is predicted to grow faster in Russia than the USA, Germany, or France in 2024. I'm curious as to where this growth is coming from? Natural gas flowing into Europe from the the Nordstream I and II? Electronics manufacture? An easing of sanctions? I don't think so...
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Post by justme on Feb 2, 2023 14:46:20 GMT
I'm curious as to where this growth is coming from? Natural gas flowing into Europe from the the Nordstream I and II? Electronics manufacture? An easing of sanctions? I don't think so... What Canada is to the USA, Russia is now to China. China is growing faster than the west. Russia has a record trade surplus in 2022. Saudi Arabia and other countries in the East now sell their fossil fuels to the west. Essentially, the global flow of oil and natural gas exports has just been reshuffled. Russia sells their fossil fuels to the east. China, India, and the fastest growing countries in the east have strong demand for metals, fossil fuels, nuclear power plants, and minerals. Russia oil exports now at the highest level since this conflict began: www.reuters.com/business/energy/asia-absorbs-big-rise-russian-urals-crude-exports-sources-2023-01-30/Russia manufactures their own microprocessors: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_microprocessorsIn addition, chip imports from China are at record highs: *Russian microprocessors are 15 years behind western ones. Chinese microprocessors are several years behind western ones. Of course, global oil prices will play a roll in Russia's GDP growth this year. Even with China reopening, we have not let seen a significant spike in crude oil prices due to less demand from a global economic slow down (recession). I would also like to point out many of the western companies that left Russia were bought and rebranded. You have the same supply chain and food, with new names. In addition to buying the assets for pennies on the dollar, you no longer pay western royalties. Are you tired of the mainstream media pushing false narratives?
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Post by justme on Feb 2, 2023 15:19:40 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 2, 2023 16:45:55 GMT
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Post by justme on Feb 2, 2023 21:23:24 GMT
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Post by youngjasper on Feb 2, 2023 22:06:59 GMT
Justme looks like a boarder that could work. I agree. If Putin got all that, I'd wager the war would be over.
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Post by Sigurdur on Feb 3, 2023 4:54:40 GMT
I think the likelihood of Russia "winning" is rising the outcome will not be fun for them. The Ukrainians look like Russians and will cut the throats of the occupiers for decades, the West will have no need for Russian stuff within 2 years. Russia is resourceful but ultimately its a small economy they will struggle economically with the inevitable sanctions. China will buy their resources but at a very significant discount. The economic cluster of Iran, Russia, North Korea and possibly China is not a picture of a robust group. Each country will have to decide if they want to be with them or the greater world. They have already decided. BRIC countries understand and are rebelling. When you look at a world map, there isn't much support for Ukraine. Ukraine was killing Russian citizens. Is the main reason Russia invaded. The push for invasion was Biden. He basically invited Ukraine to join NATO. The Lepard tanks are no match for the T-90M. In fact, they are worse than US tanks. Won't be delivered until 2024 as well.
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Post by Sigurdur on Feb 3, 2023 4:58:38 GMT
Southern and Eastern Ukraine are pro-Russian and contain many ethnic Russians. Russia does not want or would try to occupy territory in Central and Western Ukraine. Some areas of Central and Western Ukraine, over 90 percent identify with western values. Many of the Ukrainians living in the areas of fighting since 2014, either moved to western Ukraine or east to get closer to Russia (depending on their views), to get away from the fighting. As you can see from my previous posts many sources in the west now admit sanctions have failed and the Russian economy is growing this year. GDP is predicted to grow faster in Russia than the USA, Germany, or France in 2024. I'm curious as to where this growth is coming from? Natural gas flowing into Europe from the the Nordstream I and II? Electronics manufacture? An easing of sanctions? I don't think so... Russia was a minor trading partner to the West. Their growth continues because most of their trading partners are ignoring the sanctions, bypassing SWIFT.
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 3, 2023 13:38:51 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 3, 2023 14:11:27 GMT
All propaganda aside. Russia is in trouble economically in the long term. They have lost their biggest trading partner in Europe for fossil fuels. The EU said they will cut Russian gas imports by 2/3 within a year. Logistically they can not simply find another buyer for this gas. It's hard to transport without expensive infrastructure. In 2021 over half of Russia's crude was exported to Europe. No longer. They have replaced some of this lost market with India and China stepping up to buy Russian oil but only at a steep discount. Currently the price is 40.00 per barrel. Currently WTI is trading almost double that at 75.00 plus. Then there is the SWIFT banking system they have been removed from. It is unlikely Russian companies can make a profit with oil at 40.00 a barrel. They can rob Peter to pay Paul for a while and turn 40.00 oil into military supplies but over time they will need reinvestment to keep their oil fields flowing. It will not come from the west. Economically they have weathered the storm well. Anticipating western sanctions they were well prepared. In the short term they will be OK. Long term the economic war will cripple the Russian economy. www.bbc.com/news/58888451
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Post by justme on Feb 3, 2023 15:34:10 GMT
The 2 month old video you posted talks about 'Russia beating pessimistic forecasts'. It then uses the IMF. You liked a comment is a previous post stating the 'IMF economic numbers are propaganda': Your posted video states how forecasts have been revised upward from a contraction of 8.5 percent, then 6.4 percent, and now 3.4 percent (old video). We now know from the January 2023 IMF update the estimated contraction is now 2.2 percent. Why does your source use IMF? It is the gold standard of economic forecasting. Keep in mind many economist had predicted between a 15 - 20 percent contraction. Vloggers make videos for views. They use information they can find from the western media. Unfortunately, when you are indoctrinated and not given reality, you develop false narratives as truth. The Mateusz Morawiecki (Prime Minister of Poland), who by the way is the one of Ukraine's biggest supporters and anti-Russian people in the world today, stated: My guess is your vlogger will make a video in several months on why sanctions failed. When you review the economic data at a later point, you will also see the light, or perhaps you just know better than the economic experts and world leaders?
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