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Post by nonentropic on May 6, 2024 23:31:14 GMT
Yes gridley but the gap was reduced.
Ultimately its the same process we see in the Ukraine, the GDP of Russia is very modest relative to the supply chain of the Ukraine probably 40 times.
The difference this time is that the west is not engaged past about one tenth of one percent of GDP and the Russian people get no say even with probably 15% of GDP being diverted to the effort.
If the Ukrainians are able to hold out they could kill the Russian resolve but two more years!
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Post by glennkoks on May 7, 2024 2:13:44 GMT
Gazprom profits down 27% from a year ago... For a nation heavily reliant on gas and oil this is going to hurt...
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Post by phydeaux2363 on May 7, 2024 18:26:32 GMT
Sigurdur, Over the years we have had great conversations and I have always respected your opinion on everything from farming, the climate and politics. I got to thinking that over the last couple of years and a half dozen or so talks I never asked your opinion on just how do you see this war ending? What would be a "fair" resolution to hostilities? As a matter of fact I would love to listen to everyones opinion on just how this war should end. Mr. Glenn, I think the Ukraine war ends in one of two ways. The most likely is internal turmoil domestically, most likely in Ukraine, but possibly in Russia. There is only so much suffering and displacement a civilian population can stand before they call, often violently, for an end to the war. Germany in 1918 is an example of this. What comes after the ashes is beyond the range of my Magic 8 Ball. The other possibility is that a third country with some military power intervenes on one side other, tipping the balance and driving the other side to sue for peace. Maybe China or Iran decide it wants to get some practice for their newly developed military, and send in troops to support Russia. Or maybe a minor western power does the same on the side of the Ukrainians. The major take away is that the war grinds on until some outside force acts on the combatants, forcing an end to the war. Obviously, the "intervention" scenario is more likely to end badly than an internal revolution in Ukraine. A revolution in Russia could be a disaster, cuz nukes.
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Post by glennkoks on May 7, 2024 21:19:36 GMT
Sigurdur, Over the years we have had great conversations and I have always respected your opinion on everything from farming, the climate and politics. I got to thinking that over the last couple of years and a half dozen or so talks I never asked your opinion on just how do you see this war ending? What would be a "fair" resolution to hostilities? As a matter of fact I would love to listen to everyones opinion on just how this war should end. Mr. Glenn, I think the Ukraine war ends in one of two ways. The most likely is internal turmoil domestically, most likely in Ukraine, but possibly in Russia. There is only so much suffering and displacement a civilian population can stand before they call, often violently, for an end to the war. Germany in 1918 is an example of this. What comes after the ashes is beyond the range of my Magic 8 Ball. The other possibility is that a third country with some military power intervenes on one side other, tipping the balance and driving the other side to sue for peace. Maybe China or Iran decide it wants to get some practice for their newly developed military, and send in troops to support Russia. Or maybe a minor western power does the same on the side of the Ukrainians. The major take away is that the war grinds on until some outside force acts on the combatants, forcing an end to the war. Obviously, the "intervention" scenario is more likely to end badly than an internal revolution in Ukraine. A revolution in Russia could be a disaster, cuz nukes. Personally I think Xi Ping Pong from China will broker a peace deal that is acceptable to both sides. The West will continue to put pressure on China to quit buying Russian oil and gas and quit selling them the tools they need for war. Eventually the economic pain put on China from the West will persuade him to use his influence over Putin. Putin can get some type of autonomy in the Donbas and Crimea with a government friendly to the Kremlin and a promise Ukraine will not join NATO. He can raise the victory flag and say his special military operation was a success and Ukraine is now free of Nazi's. Putin will be viewed favorably at home bringing the troops back, Xi Ping Pong will win the Noble Peace Prize for brokering a truce. Win Win...
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Post by missouriboy on May 7, 2024 21:21:16 GMT
In the New Age of Drones, their strategic passes (Zeihan's thesis) may be less important. Will they settle for a lot less?
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Post by missouriboy on May 7, 2024 22:32:52 GMT
This Fourth Turning is letting out all the stops. Chaos reigns.
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Post by missouriboy on May 7, 2024 23:03:22 GMT
There are others in Russia's neighborhood that don't want anything to do with them either. Putin was trying to pick them off one at a time.
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steve
Level 2 Rank
Posts: 73
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Post by steve on May 8, 2024 3:50:41 GMT
Mr. Glenn, I think the Ukraine war ends in one of two ways. The most likely is internal turmoil domestically, most likely in Ukraine, but possibly in Russia. There is only so much suffering and displacement a civilian population can stand before they call, often violently, for an end to the war. Germany in 1918 is an example of this. What comes after the ashes is beyond the range of my Magic 8 Ball. The other possibility is that a third country with some military power intervenes on one side other, tipping the balance and driving the other side to sue for peace. Maybe China or Iran decide it wants to get some practice for their newly developed military, and send in troops to support Russia. Or maybe a minor western power does the same on the side of the Ukrainians. The major take away is that the war grinds on until some outside force acts on the combatants, forcing an end to the war. Obviously, the "intervention" scenario is more likely to end badly than an internal revolution in Ukraine. A revolution in Russia could be a disaster, cuz nukes. Personally I think Xi Ping Pong from China will broker a peace deal that is acceptable to both sides. The West will continue to put pressure on China to quit buying Russian oil and gas and quit selling them the tools they need for war. Eventually the economic pain put on China from the West will persuade him to use his influence over Putin. Putin can get some type of autonomy in the Donbas and Crimea with a government friendly to the Kremlin and a promise Ukraine will not join NATO. He can raise the victory flag and say his special military operation was a success and Ukraine is now free of Nazi's. Putin will be viewed favorably at home bringing the troops back, Xi Ping Pong will win the Noble Peace Prize for brokering a truce. Win Win... If China brokered a peace deal, it would also diminish the USA on the international stage. Could make for a win win win in the eyes of some.
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Post by justme on May 12, 2024 17:32:40 GMT
Russia has continued to advance all across the front lines. Russia has ground down Ukraine over the past 2 years in an attritional war. Despite western aid to Ukraine exceeding the WWII Marshall Plan, Ukraine is being crushed. In northern Ukraine, Russia did not commit their main force, yet they are advancing with little resistance. This force gained more territory in 1 day, then Ukraine did in their entire counter offensive that lasted months.
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Post by glennkoks on May 12, 2024 18:19:16 GMT
Russian economy is in tatters. Most of their gas is now landlocked. Crude sanctions are starting to bite!
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Post by glennkoks on May 12, 2024 18:30:01 GMT
More strikes by Ukraine on Russian oil refineries. Deep in the heart of Russia!
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Post by glennkoks on May 12, 2024 21:14:30 GMT
Job well done Shoigu but you’re FIRED!
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Post by justme on May 12, 2024 21:19:28 GMT
Job well done Shoigu but you’re FIRED! Shoigu was appointed as secretary of the Russian security council. At the very least it is a lateral move. Some might even consider it a promotion. After every election, Russia forms a cabinet. There were multiple shuffles. Countries in the west do this after elections. It would be considered normal by the western media if it was not Russia.
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Post by justme on May 12, 2024 21:22:52 GMT
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Post by flearider on May 13, 2024 4:56:37 GMT
but it's a false growth .. spend billions on weapons and less on everything else plus you have the oil problem .. your economy looks good but will tank after a short time ..
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