|
|
Post by missouriboy on Dec 24, 2023 21:29:59 GMT
Don't want to jump the gun and jinx it. But it's sure looking like Acid nailed it ... down to the month.   |
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Dec 25, 2023 5:56:01 GMT
I find myself looking at this quite alot these days and it's pretty effective in understanding what activity is like farside of sun...  jsoc.stanford.edu/data/timed/farside_both.htmlThere is a significantly large sunspot farside which will be a returning one in a few days as its already passed earthside. We'll have to see what that does when it rotates around! The Solen site says this, tucked right down at the bottom of the homepage.. Update on the progress of solar cycle 25 as of December 7, 2023 Due to relatively low solar activity over the last couple of months, the possibility that solar cycle 25 has already peaked has increased significantly. Whether the first peak (and maybe solar max) will be in June or July depends on solar activity in December and early January 2024. If the average solar flux is less than 150 during this period, the first peak of solar cycle 25 using 365 day smoothing will likely be sometime between June 2 and July 9. Should the average solar flux instead become 140 then the peak date will be in early June (June 4 for solar flux, June 6 for STAR 2K SN, and June 7 for all the other sunspot numbers in the graph above). We won't know for a while yet when the final peak will be, however, it is interesting that the peak of SC25 could be as early as June 2023. The next update will likely be posted here in January 2024. |
|
|
|
Post by duwayne on Dec 25, 2023 16:30:35 GMT
According to my calculations, if the monthly sunspot average were to fall by 1% per month over each of the next 5 months and beyond, Cycle 25 will peak in November at 128 which happens to be the number predicted a few years ago by Svalgaard.
The current BOM prediction is for an interim peak of 128 in November. They do not provide a longer term prediction so they do not rule out a double peak for Cycle 25.
|
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Dec 25, 2023 17:16:50 GMT
According to my calculations, if the monthly sunspot average were to fall by 1% per month over each of the next 5 months and beyond, Cycle 25 will peak in November at 128 which happens to be the number predicted a few years ago by Svalgaard. The current BOM prediction is for an interim peak of 128 in November. They do not provide a longer term prediction so they do not rule out a double peak for Cycle 25. There will be no double peak for 25. I'm completely certain of this at least. |
|
|
|
Post by nonentropic on Dec 25, 2023 17:46:38 GMT
Are you referring to the hemispherical poler flips to support that Acid.
|
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Dec 25, 2023 19:27:45 GMT
Are you referring to the hemispherical poler flips to support that Acid. Ummm, don't think so Non? It's the similarity in hemispherical activity until recently. Double peak cycles have dissimilar hemispherical activity, ie, one hemisphere peaks, then the other does. Represented in the total ssn curve as individual peaks. Look back through this thread....I've made multiple posts on this 😉 |
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Dec 30, 2023 12:33:30 GMT
After a week or more of moderate activity, a huge spot is about to rotate in next few days.   We'll see if this adds a new highest ssn to record for 25. On its own its unlikely to do so, it'll depend which other spots are increasing/decreasing in size at the time. |
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Dec 30, 2023 15:23:43 GMT
MU beat Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl last night ... so the spots are aligned as they should be ...  |
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Dec 31, 2023 23:26:36 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Jan 4, 2024 5:31:53 GMT
Well, here we have the expected active area, bit of a damp squib really.  When this area last rotated earthside the sun was really nearly spotless, it took ssn from ~20 to ~180 in a couple of days  Currently with this same area earthside ssn is 63. Solar activity Outlook is weak. This area has a twist however...one spot is cockeyed with a vertical rather then the usual horizontal polarity. Apparently its polarity is literally twisted and as such has increased tension, resulting in recent large potency for strong flares!  |
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Jan 5, 2024 5:28:36 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Feb 2, 2024 18:11:22 GMT
Solens monthly solar cycle update 👀  |
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Feb 2, 2024 21:23:53 GMT
Solen has many great graphs. I'll pinch another one here. Look out ... the SC12-13 Combo ... brought down to date. Hold on to your knickers. It's mostly downhill from here.  |
|
|
|
Post by blustnmtn on Feb 22, 2024 23:32:01 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Mar 3, 2024 7:17:47 GMT
From Solen, the graph shows 365 day smoothed data. Update on the progress of solar cycle 25 as of February 11, 2024 The relatively high solar activity during the first weeks of 2024 has changed the outlook regarding solar max. The first peak in June 2023 currently has a less than 10% probability of being the actual solar max. The next candidate month is October 2023 (October 8-11 if zooming in on a specific date). The likelihood of October 2023 surpassing June 2023 is at least 50%. It is still likely that solar max will be sometime between October 2023 and March 2025.  |
|
