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Post by acidohm on Sept 27, 2023 18:35:16 GMT
Acid. I believe that you had noted odd magnetic sunspot fields in the past. What is happening here? Is this the precursor of your forecasted "one-peak" solar cycle?
Despite the quiet, a new sunspot (provisionally numbered AR3088) is emerging in the sun’s southern hemisphere; however, something is off about it — observers have noted that its magnetic field is not normal:
The sunspot, as shown in the above Solar Dynamics Observatory map of magnetic fields, should have its magnetic poles arranged +/-, that is, positive (+) on the left and negative (-) on the right. Instead, however, and going against Hale’s Law, they are rotated 90 degrees with positive (+) on top and negative (-) is on the bottom.
This is a rare ‘perpendicular sunspot,’ with magnetic poles orthogonal to the sun’s equator.
What’s going on?
“Something unusual may be happening to the sun’s magnetic dynamo beneath the surface where this sunspot is growing,” postulates Dr Tony Philips of spaceweather.com. “We’ll keep an eye on AR3088 to see what happens next,” he concludes.
I can't offer an explanation, however I understand the poles flip each cycle, so a perpendicular spot is regarded as that of a previous cycle? I guess the flip is not a linear event with pockets of plasma retaining prior polarisation? |
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 1, 2023 13:24:43 GMT
The plateau in spots may be in ... or almost ... as of end September, 2023.  |
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 16, 2023 1:21:49 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Nov 12, 2023 8:50:51 GMT
The sun has been reducing in activity of late.  In fact, we're running out of earthside sunspots as existing ones are about to rotate off Eastern limb!  Farside information isn't as easy to come by as STEREO malfunctioned, all I can find is this which suggests a close run thing for a blank sun.  Cycle 24 had a spotless day in 2014 around solar maximum (by which I mean within a few months of) Anyhow....I still think predictions of 2024 or 2025 solar max are way off. Maybe it occurred July this year? Maybe not, time will tell. |
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Post by acidohm on Nov 13, 2023 5:38:36 GMT
Sunspot 3486 says no.  |
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Post by duwayne on Nov 14, 2023 18:03:39 GMT
The National Center for Atmospheric Research predicted in 2020 that Cycle 25 was going to be "one of the strongest on record". This may not work out.
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Post by blustnmtn on Nov 14, 2023 18:21:36 GMT
The National Center for Atmospheric Research predicted in 2020 that Cycle 25 was going to be "one of the strongest on record". This may not work out.
""Scientists have struggled to predict both the length and the strength of sunspot cycles because we lack a fundamental understanding of the mechanism that drives the cycle," said NCAR Deputy Director Scott McIntosh, a solar physicist who led the study. " If our forecast proves correct, we will have evidence that our framework for understanding the Sun's internal magnetic machine is on the right path." So, I guess we can expect NCAR to publish a paper explaining their theory is on the wrong path. |
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Post by nonentropic on Nov 14, 2023 19:10:46 GMT
Look I take my hat of to groups of scientists that put a theory up and then watch with world.
I suspect that retrospective correction is more what we expect from what passes for science these days.
This feeds all the way into climate science, the solar cycle looks to have impacts but the simplistic 11 or 22 years cycle is probably not what it is about.
The delay in polar reversal of each discrete pole looks important, the only thing that worries me is how poles can be out of sync clearly more going on in the core of the sun than we know about.
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Post by acidohm on Nov 17, 2023 5:45:19 GMT
🤔  |
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Post by ratty on Nov 26, 2023 22:48:01 GMT
MOBoy, is this one of yours? I posted it elsewhere about a year ago ....  |
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Post by douglavers on Nov 29, 2023 12:01:05 GMT
If anyone is interested, there is a distinct possibility of seeing auroras in Southern Australia this Friday coming night, 1st December.
For Mebournites, that is if it has stopped raining by then.
A large CME is inbound!
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 29, 2023 14:59:30 GMT
This guy had the essence of climate science long ago. No Ph.D required. Royalty image ... so I used the link. Since this is for science, maybe they won't mind.
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 29, 2023 15:18:22 GMT
MOBoy, is this one of yours? I posted it elsewhere about a year ago .... Yes. This one is current through mid-November - 24-day running mean. I'm rooting for Acid's forecast.   |
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Post by blustnmtn on Nov 29, 2023 23:25:59 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Nov 30, 2023 5:40:46 GMT
Most recently it did this 😲 Practically lowest to highest in 3 days, what a leap!!!  |
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