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Post by acidohm on Apr 27, 2023 5:08:56 GMT
First glance, 24 was quite unusual! How so? Visually, along the lines of my rant above š, 24 is amongst the most decoupled cycles (maybe the most?) In the record available. That second, highest, peak was 60-70% solely due to the output of the southern hemisphere. |
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Post by acidohm on Apr 27, 2023 5:21:58 GMT
Duration also.
Would a suitable expression of a cycle be a mathematical expression of total sunspots and duration?
Is this done already š¤
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 27, 2023 14:01:55 GMT
Missouri, I appreciate the effort you put in to make your charts for our benefit. I am wondering, however, whether the Cycle 25 7-month average numbers for each of the 2 hemispheres are actually declining recently as depicted in your chart.
Unfortunately the SILSO data I provided the link for are 13-month smoothed hemispherical numbers, not individual hemispherical monthly values so they may not fit with your other numbers. They are still showing an uptrend.
Also, if I look at the total monthly sunspot numbers made up of both hemispheres and calculate a moving 7-month average, it shows a steady upward trend through the end of March.
So ... they should be consistent. They don't look smoothed. IGNORE the slight downward dip in the SC25 numbers in the last 3 months. I extended the 7-month centered average for the last 3 months beyond the data ... so naturally a downward dip. Have fixed but not reposted yet.  |
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 27, 2023 14:32:52 GMT
To add further thoughts and elaborate on why Missouris find of historic Hemispheric data is wonderful. Generally, total sunspot numbers are offered a metric of solar activity, a cycle will reach a maximum eg, 200. However, behind that the number is a sum of the activity of both hemispheres which as is all the more apparent now, may be coupled or uncoupled. The peak number can be both hemispheres summing up at once, or, as in 24 so clearly, may be the sum of one hemisphere, uncoupled from the other. A twin peak cycle is an uncoupled cycle. My particular interest in this is while observing the progression of the current cycle with a view in where this may be heading. I hypothesise that observing the coupling can give a better idea of what the future outcome might be then looking at total ssn. Currently, this cycle is coupled so the total ssn is a sum of both hemisphere. This to me suggests an overall weaker cycle then 24, where by this point hemispheres were uncoupled at total ssn was a function of single Hemispheric output. We are also looking most likely at a single peak cycle is my guess. What causes Hemispheric coupling is something that I can't explain (any info gratefully received). Are the hemispheres teleconnected or are we observing random flux. Further, would a cycle peak ssn be useful as expressed as seperate hemisphere combined total rather then viewed as whatever the highest total is? A peak ssn from an uncoupled cycle is perhaps apparently lower then a similar, in overall output, coupled cycle? You are a scientist and a philosopher Acid.  I like your approach. I would add that SC24 and SC12 look like mirror images (without the reversal). Why? Is that just a random occurrence? Is 12 a special number in the replication sequence? Will SC25 end up looking like SC13? If you're right , then both hemispheres output should fall away going forward. Note how strongly the southern hemisphere is expressed in both SC12 and SC13.  |
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Post by nonentropic on Apr 27, 2023 23:54:52 GMT
as a further twist is not the cycle actually a nominal 22 years given the 11 year polarity reversal as such I would be cautious to think in terms of a decoupling and would suggest a aggregate polarity migration or some such concept could we do a north south deduction such that we can see if there is a residual cycle its morning here and been in a plane since 5am so a coffee deficit may be in play.
Great discussion going on
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 28, 2023 3:58:47 GMT
as a further twist is not the cycle actually a nominal 22 years given the 11 year polarity reversal as such I would be cautious to think in terms of a decoupling and would suggest a aggregate polarity migration or some such concept could we do a north south deduction such that we can see if there is a residual cycle its morning here and been in a plane since 5am so a coffee deficit may be in play. Great discussion going on OK Non. Here is a real fast, first cut attempt. First I calculate Northern Hemisphere monthly sunspots minus Southern Hemisphere monthly sunspots. Positive = more northern hemisphere sunspots. Negative = more southern hemisphere spots. Then I calculate an incremental monthly continuous sum from first to last record. Prior to SC19, the accumulated index is essentially negative (more southern hemisphere sunspots). In the 1960s the index becomes strongly positive (more northern hemisphere sunspots), peaks into the late 1970s, and has been declining ever since.
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Post by acidohm on Apr 28, 2023 3:59:29 GMT
as a further twist is not the cycle actually a nominal 22 years given the 11 year polarity reversal as such I would be cautious to think in terms of a decoupling and would suggest a aggregate polarity migration or some such concept could we do a north south deduction such that we can see if there is a residual cycle its morning here and been in a plane since 5am so a coffee deficit may be in play. Great discussion going on Exactly correct Non regarding 22 year cycle. There are a number of papers on differences in Hemispheric activity....but finding one that isn't very heavy in scientific jargon isn't easy. I'll be honest, it's hard work drawing conclusions from what appears to be a different language! |
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Post by acidohm on Apr 28, 2023 4:01:25 GMT
as a further twist is not the cycle actually a nominal 22 years given the 11 year polarity reversal as such I would be cautious to think in terms of a decoupling and would suggest a aggregate polarity migration or some such concept could we do a north south deduction such that we can see if there is a residual cycle its morning here and been in a plane since 5am so a coffee deficit may be in play. Great discussion going on OK Non.Ā Here is a real fast, first cut attempt.Ā First I calculate Northern Hemisphere monthly sunspots minus Southern Hemisphere monthly sunspots.Ā Positive = more northern hemisphere sunspots.Ā Negative = more southern hemisphere spots.Ā Then I calculate an incremental monthly continuous sum from first to last record.Ā Prior to SC19, the accumulated index is essentially negative (more southern hemisphere sunspots).Ā In the 1960s the index becomes strongly positive (more northern hemisphere sunspots), peaks into the late 1970s, and has been declining ever since.
Ah! That's pretty cool Missouri! |
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 28, 2023 12:15:51 GMT
Thanks. The "increasingly large window" from 1874 to 2023 likely has an effect ... so I need to work up some "fixed size windows" (e.g. 22-year windows) to move across the data. But it seems clear that the solar hemispheric distribution has changed, and clusters, over time. So ... the 20th century "grand maximum" may play out in ways we have not discussed before. How does this affect the Oceans for example?
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Post by nonentropic on Apr 28, 2023 19:53:12 GMT
so that is a very big shift over time what does it mean?
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Post by blustnmtn on Apr 28, 2023 21:57:15 GMT
Thanks. The "increasingly large window" from 1874 to 2023 likely has an effect ... so I need to work up some "fixed size windows" (e.g. 22-year windows) to move across the data. But it seems clear that the solar hemispheric distribution has changed, and clusters, over time. So ... the 20th century "grand maximum" may play out in ways we have not discussed before. How does this affect the Oceans for example? Moāboy, I generally think the energy storage/release time constant of the oceans is unknown. Clearly the overturning currents are very important on yearly and decadal periods but I think the bulk time constants associated with the oceans are very long and masked by all the short period noise that we call weather. Your recent plot is very interestingā¦even though the science is settled š |
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 28, 2023 22:09:53 GMT
OK Non. Here is a real fast, first cut attempt. First I calculate Northern Hemisphere monthly sunspots minus Southern Hemisphere monthly sunspots. Positive = more northern hemisphere sunspots. Negative = more southern hemisphere spots. Then I calculate an incremental monthly continuous sum from first to last record. Prior to SC19, the accumulated index is essentially negative (more southern hemisphere sunspots). In the 1960s the index becomes strongly positive (more northern hemisphere sunspots), peaks into the late 1970s, and has been declining ever since.
Ah! That's pretty cool Missouri! Here are the comparisons of 22-year centered running averages of northern and southern hemisphere sunspots to the cumulative hemispheric sunspot index. Note that there seems to be 70+ year shift between dominant hemisphere. There are only two shifts, so not a large sample.  |
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 28, 2023 22:20:24 GMT
Thanks. The "increasingly large window" from 1874 to 2023 likely has an effect ... so I need to work up some "fixed size windows" (e.g. 22-year windows) to move across the data. But it seems clear that the solar hemispheric distribution has changed, and clusters, over time. So ... the 20th century "grand maximum" may play out in ways we have not discussed before. How does this affect the Oceans for example? Moāboy, I generally think the energy storage/release time constant of the oceans is unknown. Clearly the overturning currents are very important on yearly and decadal periods but I think the bulk time constants associated with the oceans are very long and masked by all the short period noise that we call weather. Your recent plot is very interestingā¦even though the science is settled š I agree. But we see ENSO temperatures rise and fall as a seeming lagged response to solar activity ... and UAH lower troposphere tropical and global temperature anomalies rise and fall as a seeming lagged response to ocean temperatures. I think this must say something about solar-ocean-atmosphere energy transfers. The only thing settled is Al Gore's midriff bulge.  |
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 30, 2023 12:39:35 GMT
Some interesting observations. |
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 30, 2023 12:57:43 GMT
Sunspots end of April, 2023. SC23-SC25. Back on the SC24 track?  |
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I like your approach. I would add that SC24 and SC12 look like mirror images (without the reversal). Why? Is that just a random occurrence? Is 12 a special number in the replication sequence? Will SC25 end up looking like SC13? If you're right , then both hemispheres output should fall away going forward. Note how strongly the southern hemisphere is expressed in both SC12 and SC13.
