EV Nation

[walnut]

" hair-brained scheme." Or, we bought what we wanted, and you don't like that. Sorry, but we're not going to worry. We're going to move one past you, as are other EV owners.

No, I'm happy that you're happy with it. But they are not sensible. A rich man's novelty car, like a corvette.

[walnut]

I'm not trying to force anyone to buy IC cars. But the other side is trying to force me to buy EV's. I'm saying that the "green" premise is false, and misguided, so I resent the imposition on me.

[slh1234]

Jan 31, 2023 17:03:28 GMT Sigurdur said:

Jan 31, 2023 16:47:14 GMT slh1234 said:

EV are here to stay. They are great runabouts.

They are NOT great work vehicles.

As I said, we bought it for my wife's business since her business was a specialied (ethnic) restaurant business and we had to drive more than an hour one way to get the ingredients she needed. We packed back seat and haul space full on each trip since the trip was inconvenient. That is a type of "work vehicle."

For heavier work, I'm still waiting to see. I follow the research on batteries and advancement there. I don't think electric commercial airliners are in our near future, but it would be silly for me to say it can't happen. I think more and more work vehicles will go electric, probably earlier than most people think.

You know, I followed hydrogen fuel cell development for a couple of decades, and I sincerely thought the next disruption would be hydrogen powered transportation. But it sill just hasn't developed to where it is practical. Meanwhile, BEVs became practical even while certain sectors continue to tell us they aren't. They became accessible to a larger and larger section of us worldwide.

The good news is that a hydrogen fuel cell is just another way of storing or producing electricity, so if there is a breakthrough there in the future that makes it more practical and affordable (including fuel production), then much of the progress on BEVs will transfer to hydrogen fuel cells. And it's possible there is something else that will be the next disruption, but we just don't know about it, yet.

I'll also say (as I said before), BEVs are actually very good on long hauls, too. You just have to get past some of the silly objections raised by people who have never tried it, and listen to the mindset of those of us who HAVE taken them on longer hauls. 

[slh1234]

Jan 31, 2023 17:16:11 GMT walnut said:

I'm not trying to force anyone to buy IC cars. But the other side is trying to force me to buy EV's. I'm saying that the "green" premise is false, and misguided, so I resent the imposition on me.

Nobody is forcing you to buy an EV. You can walk onto a lot tomorrow and buy a fully ICE vehicle in any state in the US. You could go buy a horse and carriage, too.

Most auto companies set goals to go to fully EV fleets by 2035. It was AFTER this that some states started addressing the issue legislatively. In 2035, I'm going to be well into my 70s and might not even be allowed to drive anymore. However; if I AM still allowed to drive, at that time, I would still be able to buy a used ICE vehicle if I wanted to. I could still buy a horse and carriage, too, if I wanted. 

I've been a principal engineer, and now work as a principal data scientist. At that time, I won't be a principal anything anymore, so I won't be driving conversations on what will be developed. The younger generation wants to pursue alternative fuels, and they will be the principal engineers at that time. They will deal with the challenges, and you know what? They'll be quite capable of doing so. It's their world at that time, and the main thing I'm going to worry about is if they can keep me mobile. 

As for "resent," yeah, but when you look at what you said, the statements and wording you use also raises a lot of resentment in others, so turnabout is fair play, right?

[slh1234]

Jan 31, 2023 17:10:21 GMT walnut said:

" hair-brained scheme." Or, we bought what we wanted, and you don't like that. Sorry, but we're not going to worry. We're going to move one past you, as are other EV owners.

No, I'm happy that you're happy with it. But they are not sensible. A rich man's novelty car, like a corvette.

You have them in pretty much every price range, and they are becoming more so all the time, although demand is EXTREMELY high for them right now and the market tends to drive the price a little higher based on that. As I pointed out in another post, there's really not that much difference in price between a Tesla and a similarly equipped ICE car. Since Tesla has opened 3 new "giga-factories" in the last 2 years, and the Austin, TX plant is still in ramp-up (and wasn't producing most of 2022), supply will likely come closer to demand in the next year or two - just a thought on my part since I don't project their actual production ramp-up.

[walnut]

Jan 31, 2023 17:25:40 GMT slh1234 said:

Jan 31, 2023 17:16:11 GMT walnut said:

I'm not trying to force anyone to buy IC cars. But the other side is trying to force me to buy EV's. I'm saying that the "green" premise is false, and misguided, so I resent the imposition on me.

Nobody is forcing you to buy an EV. You can walk onto a lot tomorrow and buy a fully ICE vehicle in any state in the US. You could go buy a horse and carriage, too.

Most auto companies set goals to go to fully EV fleets by 2035. It was AFTER this that some states started addressing the issue legislatively. In 2035, I'm going to be well into my 70s and might not even be allowed to drive anymore. However; if I AM still allowed to drive, at that time, I would still be able to buy a used ICE vehicle if I wanted to. I could still buy a horse and carriage, too, if I wanted. 

I've been a principal engineer, and now work as a principal data scientist. At that time, I won't be a principal anything anymore, so I won't be driving conversations on what will be developed. The younger generation wants to pursue alternative fuels, and they will be the principal engineers at that time. They will deal with the challenges, and you know what? They'll be quite capable of doing so. It's their world at that time, and the main thing I'm going to worry about is if they can keep me mobile. 

As for "resent," yeah, but when you look at what you said, the statements and wording you use also raises a lot of resentment in others, so turnabout is fair play, right?

Is that so?  

www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/

That is obviously the planned direction.

What statement did I make that you resent?  I'm saying that EV's are not green and generally not sensible at current prices.  Did I insult you?

[walnut]

I appreciate the high performance, luxuriousness, and quietness of EV cars, and I don't want them to be "outlawed". I just want gov't to stay out of our rights to make our own decisions. Let the market decide.

[slh1234]

Jan 31, 2023 17:30:14 GMT walnut said:

Jan 31, 2023 17:25:40 GMT slh1234 said:

Nobody is forcing you to buy an EV. You can walk onto a lot tomorrow and buy a fully ICE vehicle in any state in the US. You could go buy a horse and carriage, too.

Most auto companies set goals to go to fully EV fleets by 2035. It was AFTER this that some states started addressing the issue legislatively. In 2035, I'm going to be well into my 70s and might not even be allowed to drive anymore. However; if I AM still allowed to drive, at that time, I would still be able to buy a used ICE vehicle if I wanted to. I could still buy a horse and carriage, too, if I wanted. 

I've been a principal engineer, and now work as a principal data scientist. At that time, I won't be a principal anything anymore, so I won't be driving conversations on what will be developed. The younger generation wants to pursue alternative fuels, and they will be the principal engineers at that time. They will deal with the challenges, and you know what? They'll be quite capable of doing so. It's their world at that time, and the main thing I'm going to worry about is if they can keep me mobile. 

As for "resent," yeah, but when you look at what you said, the statements and wording you use also raises a lot of resentment in others, so turnabout is fair play, right?

Is that so?  

www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/

That is obviously the planned direction.

What statement did I make that you resent?  I'm saying that EV's are not green and generally not sensible at current prices.  Did I insult you?

Yes, and that is exactly what I was talking about in 2035. Notice that it is NEW cars in 2035, but even then, it would be possible to continue using existing ICE vehicles or to purchase a used one. And how old will you be in 2035?

As for what you said, Honestly, when I first read your statement, I misread the word "Imposition," and thought you were resenting what I was implying about you. So when I answered, I had in mind the tone of statements like "When will people come back to reality and accept ... " and "hare brained." So I apologize for misunderstanding on that reading. 

Government makes some decisions on infrastructure, like when the SD TV signals went away which many of us saw as imposing a new technology on us. But at that time, it won't be up to me anymore, and there won't be enough people objecting to be able to stop it. I honestly don't think there are enough people objecting now to really stop it, but I don't really know that for sure about the US. I do know that countries like South Korea are all in on it, but what will happen with countries like Mexico at that time since they're behind the US on this curve.

[walnut]

No hard feelings here. If I thought that EV's made sense I'd like to have one. I made money in Lucid stock last year. If things change some and they seem to make sense I'd buy one.

[Sigurdur]

Jan 31, 2023 17:18:20 GMT slh1234 said:

Jan 31, 2023 17:03:28 GMT Sigurdur said:

EV are here to stay. They are great runabouts.

They are NOT great work vehicles.

As I said, we bought it for my wife's business since her business was a specialied (ethnic) restaurant business and we had to drive more than an hour one way to get the ingredients she needed. We packed back seat and haul space full on each trip since the trip was inconvenient. That is a type of "work vehicle."

For heavier work, I'm still waiting to see. I follow the research on batteries and advancement there. I don't think electric commercial airliners are in our near future, but it would be silly for me to say it can't happen. I think more and more work vehicles will go electric, probably earlier than most people think.

You know, I followed hydrogen fuel cell development for a couple of decades, and I sincerely thought the next disruption would be hydrogen powered transportation. But it sill just hasn't developed to where it is practical. Meanwhile, BEVs became practical even while certain sectors continue to tell us they aren't. They became accessible to a larger and larger section of us worldwide.

The good news is that a hydrogen fuel cell is just another way of storing or producing electricity, so if there is a breakthrough there in the future that makes it more practical and affordable (including fuel production), then much of the progress on BEVs will transfer to hydrogen fuel cells. And it's possible there is something else that will be the next disruption, but we just don't know about it, yet.

I'll also say (as I said before), BEVs are actually very good on long hauls, too. You just have to get past some of the silly objections raised by people who have never tried it, and listen to the mindset of those of us who HAVE taken them on longer hauls. 

When I think of work vehicles, I am thinking 1 ton pickups and heavier.

Pulling a tank of NH3, or a trailer will quickly drain today's EV offering. To extend range, battery has to be added, which increases the tare weight so much that the vehicle becomes worthless.

[acidohm]

I don't know how they'll mine enough rare earth minerals to accomplish these global ev requirements.

My money is on failure in achieving these dates.

[Sigurdur]

Agree

[slh1234]

There is no one answer on mineral requirements for batteries because batteries are in constant and ongoing development. (Something that seems to be consistently missed in discussions of EVs) Chemistry in the current version of Tesla's new 4680 battery is different from the previous 2170 batteries, and for that matter, there is more than one chemistry of the 2170 batteries. GM has their own R&D and their own names for batteries and chemistry - I'm just not as familiar with them as I am with the Tesla batteries, but even with the Tesla batteries, my familiarity is just from reading - not hands-on research.

As an example, the 4680 batteries currently being used use graphite anodes (no silicon), and as I understand it, the cathode is NCM811 which is about 81% nickel. Also, because of battery design, the power density is greater.

All of these things factor in, but much like infrastructure (which is constantly being developed), this is not standing still like objections seem to imply. This is an area of active research that literally changes year over year.

[slh1234]

Jan 31, 2023 20:05:54 GMT Sigurdur said:

Jan 31, 2023 17:18:20 GMT slh1234 said:

As I said, we bought it for my wife's business since her business was a specialied (ethnic) restaurant business and we had to drive more than an hour one way to get the ingredients she needed. We packed back seat and haul space full on each trip since the trip was inconvenient. That is a type of "work vehicle."

For heavier work, I'm still waiting to see. I follow the research on batteries and advancement there. I don't think electric commercial airliners are in our near future, but it would be silly for me to say it can't happen. I think more and more work vehicles will go electric, probably earlier than most people think.

You know, I followed hydrogen fuel cell development for a couple of decades, and I sincerely thought the next disruption would be hydrogen powered transportation. But it sill just hasn't developed to where it is practical. Meanwhile, BEVs became practical even while certain sectors continue to tell us they aren't. They became accessible to a larger and larger section of us worldwide.

The good news is that a hydrogen fuel cell is just another way of storing or producing electricity, so if there is a breakthrough there in the future that makes it more practical and affordable (including fuel production), then much of the progress on BEVs will transfer to hydrogen fuel cells. And it's possible there is something else that will be the next disruption, but we just don't know about it, yet.

I'll also say (as I said before), BEVs are actually very good on long hauls, too. You just have to get past some of the silly objections raised by people who have never tried it, and listen to the mindset of those of us who HAVE taken them on longer hauls. 

When I think of work vehicles, I am thinking 1 ton pickups and heavier.

Pulling a tank of NH3, or a trailer will quickly drain today's EV offering. To extend range, battery has to be added, which increases the tare weight so much that the vehicle becomes worthless.

The point is that 1) there is more than 1 definition of "work vehicle," and 2) capabilities continue to be developed and made available.

For example, 5 years ago, could anybody have believed this: www.gmc.com/electric/hummer-ev ? That's where it currently is. It won't sit still - it will continue to be developed.

[slh1234]

In terms of "What's next" in the battery world, there are MANY researchers in this area. Here are a few interesting reads, although not technical papers:

www.biobasedpress.eu/2022/06/after-lithium-ion-batteries-sodium-ion-batteries/

energystorage.org/why-energy-storage/technologies/redox-flow-batteries/ (I usually read about Redox Flow being used for storage on the grid, and not for EVs. But it does illustrate that battery storage is constantly moving forward - not stationary).

Different discussion on energy storage: Graphene Supercapacitors, and hybrid battery/capacitors: pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2021/se/d0se01849j

And for that matter, Hydrogen fuel cell is not dead - it just hasn't become economically feasible, and fuel production is part of this problem.

I'm not trying to give an exhaustive list. I'm just trying to address a major flaw in the thinking with EVs that thinks that current battery technology is the end state. In truth, current technologies were the engineering "good enough" for commercial application, but R&D is very active in this area and many competing researchers are working on different paths which show promise. I think at the very least, there won't be a single battery type in all BEVs in the near future, and as far as that goes, even the current family of batteries have different chemistries.