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Post by missouriboy on Nov 15, 2023 17:55:58 GMT
Millennial Industrial Complex?? |
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 17, 2023 21:56:56 GMT
Amazing how much this looks like the solar cycle progression.   |
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Post by walnut on Nov 18, 2023 3:59:48 GMT
I'm kind of laughing at "GOOD MINUS BAD PLUS 100". I'm having AI write an algo for me, I will base all future important decisions on that powerful formula.
Seriously, I think that is the calculation for the "index of consumer sentiment". Questionnaire replies.
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 18, 2023 14:18:43 GMT
I'm kind of laughing at "GOOD MINUS BAD PLUS 100". I'm having AI write an algo for me, I will base all future important decisions on that powerful formula. Seriously, I think that is the calculation for the "index of consumer sentiment". Questionnaire replies. Across a large spectrum of opinions (on good and bad), can you end up with a final distribution that doesn't look like an "X"? Thank you Elon!  |
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Post by nonentropic on Nov 18, 2023 18:44:51 GMT
Two worrying words in statistical analysis are good and bad.
Subjective words have no long term durability. Test everything with the test, could I write the method up and expect the same outcome within errors.
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 18, 2023 23:02:11 GMT
Two worrying words in statistical analysis are good and bad. Subjective words have no long term durability. Test everything with the test, could I write the method up and expect the same outcome within errors. If you can produce climate forecasts that track well over time, then you are doing better than the official agencies ... which have a seemingly terrible record in the last couple of years.
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Post by walnut on Nov 27, 2023 14:10:00 GMT
I think that the middle class has been going through their savings during this "not a recession". The common story is that they had 10 or 20K 2 or 3 years ago, but they are down to their last 2 or 3 months in cash reserves. I gather this from reading a long list of TikTok comments. The Fed had better relent on the austerity campaign, the economy is about to break.
The news I saw about Black Friday shows that people did not spend much money in stores. Are they buying online? or just out of money and worried about the future.
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Post by Sigurdur on Nov 27, 2023 16:43:28 GMT
Out of money.
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 27, 2023 17:53:20 GMT
Which puts them right up there with our "supposed" government. Only they would be arrested if they printed their own cash. Which makes our government crooks? |
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Post by Sigurdur on Nov 27, 2023 19:54:20 GMT
Which puts them right up there with our "supposed" government. Only they would be arrested if they printed their own cash. Which makes our government crooks? Yep. |
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Post by Sigurdur on Nov 28, 2023 15:54:19 GMT
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Post by walnut on Nov 28, 2023 16:50:29 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Nov 28, 2023 17:44:29 GMT
I just had a conversation with a buddy of mine who builds custom homes. He currently has one home on the market and another one stuck in a regulatory mess. He said last year homes in his area averaged 10-12 viewings a week and usually sold within days. This year he is lucky to get 1 or 2 views a week and his one house on the market has been there for months. He currently has stopped all future projects and is considering getting a part time job to help make ends meet while this market sorts itself out and he liquidates his existing projects.
Another buddy of mine opened his second self storage building in May. After several years worth of delays in construction due to Covid, cost overruns and the higher price in financing his 2 million dollar project escalated to 4 million. Grand opening was in May he has only rented out 60 of the 320 units. He is also struggling to make his loan payments due to the increase in financing costs and slower business.
In my business it has been slow. The seafood markets sales have been very low year over year and for the first time ever a really good customer of mine bounced a check to me. Usually the holiday season is very busy for seafood, this year it dropped off a cliff. I am running as lean as I can and controlling costs the best I can. Only really harvesting what I can to fill orders nothing more.
I realize this is anecdotal evidence but I feel the average household in America is really starting to feel the strain and my best guess is it starts to really show up in the data next year.
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Post by walnut on Nov 29, 2023 0:28:29 GMT
Our business is slow. We are usually sold out as a matter of course but we have a lot of money tied up in inventory now. Going to be a winter to survive. Several are already gone. Not giving any credit.
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Post by walnut on Nov 29, 2023 4:19:15 GMT
Tonight I wrote an AI machine learning algo trading robot in Python, using Python libraries, which is actually working now, it is making predictions and trying to place trades. It is not integrated into the IB account yet. Of course I am hopeful that it performs well and makes money. There will be some tinkering. Unlike climate scientists, we want our AI to avoid curve-fitting.
-----------------
initialize(context)
handle_data(context)
[*********************100%%**********************] 1 of 1 completed
Predicting price increase. Placing buy order.
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