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Post by missouriboy on Nov 11, 2023 13:14:05 GMT
It seems that we have returned to a variant of 2008-10 ... and real estate is once again the(?) Big Elephant in the room. Most anyone who bought real estate in the last third/half of the 2008 - 2022 cycle are effectively underwater. High interest rates have effectively anchored most households in place as few can afford to buy their properties ... even if they drastically reduce the price. This video uses home price to household income ratios to make their point. Simple, nothing fancy.
Grantham talks Super Bubbles. Will this be a 3-Sigma Event? |
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Post by walnut on Nov 11, 2023 15:28:52 GMT
It seems that we have returned to a variant of 2008-10 ... and real estate is once again the(?) Big Elephant in the room. Most anyone who bought real estate in the last third/half of the 2008 - 2022 cycle are effectively underwater. High interest rates have effectively anchored most households in place as few can afford to buy their properties ... even if they drastically reduce the price. This video uses home price to household income ratios to make their point. Simple, nothing fancy.
Grantham talks Super Bubbles. Will this be a 3-Sigma Event? Someone bought the land next to mine and proceeded to excavate out the side of the small mountain, looks like they were going to build probably 3 nice houses to sort of continue the development which is up on the top of the mountain. But they caught it at the wrong time, rates went up as they were digging and I guess now the project is a no go. What they left is pretty ugly. I suppose maybe one day someone will pick up where they left off and finish it. |
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Post by glennkoks on Nov 11, 2023 21:09:34 GMT
Feels different from 2008-2010 in that the Fed did not have out of control inflation to reign in during that crisis. In 2008 our debt to GDP ratio was only 63% it currently is about 123% and much more when you consider unfunded liabilities. In addition Moody's just downgraded our credit rating which could lead to us paying even more in rates. Long and short of it is we bought our way out of The Great Recession by borrowing money. We did it again with Covid.
In the real world you can only pay credit cards with credit cards for so long. Eventually it does not work and the party ends.
I don't know when this party ends but we are getting real real close to Jerome Powell shutting off the lights and making everyone leave this party. The hangover is going to hurt...
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Post by ratty on Nov 11, 2023 23:30:12 GMT
THINKS: Might pick up some shares in the people who manufacture these. |
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Post by code on Nov 13, 2023 4:41:48 GMT
It seems that we have returned to a variant of 2008-10 ... and real estate is once again the(?) Big Elephant in the room. Most anyone who bought real estate in the last third/half of the 2008 - 2022 cycle are effectively underwater. High interest rates have effectively anchored most households in place as few can afford to buy their properties ... even if they drastically reduce the price. This video uses home price to household income ratios to make their point. Simple, nothing fancy.
Grantham talks Super Bubbles. Will this be a 3-Sigma Event? Someone bought the land next to mine and proceeded to excavate out the side of the small mountain, looks like they were going to build probably 3 nice houses to sort of continue the development which is up on the top of the mountain. But they caught it at the wrong time, rates went up as they were digging and I guess now the project is a no go. What they left is pretty ugly. I suppose maybe one day someone will pick up where they left off and finish it. Get rich or get dead trying |
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Post by duwayne on Nov 13, 2023 15:25:38 GMT
I agree that puts are riskier for the reasons you give, but that's why the put premiums are higher. In fact, they are enough higher in my experience to make puts a better option than calls. Yes, a little more, but over time you are earning it by living with that directional risk. I'm a big believer in only selling options if they are significantly overpriced based on a pricing model, I usually just use IB's which seems to be a modified Black-Scholes. But keeping in mind that generally they are overpriced for a reason. Basically I had a couple of good runs with options but I don't do it anymore. It seems to me that the market makers have gotten too sophisticated these days and it is harder to win. Different I think than the early 90's when I made a bunch of money for my stock clients and won on almost every trade. I'm glad you are doing well and I wish you continued success. I know there will be rough patches along the way. I've back-tested since 1993 when the SPY ETF's were first issued. That's why I have resisted the urge to significantly increase my option trading level. A rough patch with a lot more money invested is not a good combination. |
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Post by code on Nov 13, 2023 17:20:56 GMT
Ran into a story about illegal immigration again this morning and started wondering what it costs us per individual for one year. I started doing the math and was left shocked.
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Post by Sigurdur on Nov 13, 2023 18:53:27 GMT
Ran into a story about illegal immigration again this morning and started wondering what it costs us per individual for one year. I started doing the math and was left shocked. The math produced what result? |
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Post by code on Nov 13, 2023 19:46:07 GMT
Ran into a story about illegal immigration again this morning and started wondering what it costs us per individual for one year. I started doing the math and was left shocked. The math produced what result? Let me ask you, and others if they care to chime in, what do you think it would cost to feed, house, clothe, provide care, counseling, etc., to one person per year? (I've read the average cost per person in prison ranges from about $14,000 to $70,000 per year, depending on the state. Most states average $25,000 to $30,000 per incarcerated individual annually.) So I was wondering is that a fair rate? If we use the low-end average of 25K per year, per illegal, that means it will cost 100 billion over the next ONE year to care for the 4 million who came in the last 2 years. Is my math wrong? I've been getting over Covid and my brain is still mushy. |
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Post by code on Nov 13, 2023 19:50:23 GMT
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Post by code on Nov 13, 2023 22:21:52 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 13, 2023 23:07:50 GMT
The math produced what result? Let me ask you, and others if they care to chime in, what do you think it would cost to feed, house, clothe, provide care, counseling, etc., to one person per year? (I've read the average cost per person in prison ranges from about $14,000 to $70,000 per year, depending on the state. Most states average $25,000 to $30,000 per incarcerated individual annually.) So I was wondering is that a fair rate? If we use the low-end average of 25K per year, per illegal, that means it will cost 100 billion over the next ONE year to care for the 4 million who came in the last 2 years. Is my math wrong? I've been getting over Covid and my brain is still mushy. The cost may be correct if the government is running the show. If we are at the front end of a large recession, then add the cost of all those American citizens that will be displaced by cheaper migrant labor. States that wish to support this mess, should be required to pay the bills.
There may be hope tho. These guys are from subtropical and tropical climates.
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Post by glennkoks on Nov 15, 2023 0:12:19 GMT
I typically do not do conspiracy theory but I find it odd that the market goes on a tear just before another deadline on the verge of us not being able to pay our bills.
I guess the billions and billions we are about to spend on funding the Israeli war in Gaza and Ukraine is a lot more palatable to the average Joe if his 401K is doing better….
If I were Xi Ping Pong I would wait for Congress to fund these foreign wars, and make my move on Taiwan.
There is only so much cash and armaments to go around…
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Post by blustnmtn on Nov 15, 2023 0:19:47 GMT
The MIC wins either way.
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Post by flearider on Nov 15, 2023 12:56:39 GMT
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